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Ex Amigo Chairman Stephen Wilcke resigned after the attempted sale fell through.
JPM and Bybrook look suspiciously linked> JPM making a market for Bybrook to purchase dept> Bybrook could have 16% of the company(?) and the bonds have voting rights.
Bybrook is partners with Cairn Capita Ex Amigo Chairman Stephen Wilcke used to be the on board of Cairn Capital!.!.!
Ex Chairman Stephen Wilcke works for a US Hedge fund currently... Cairn Capital recently received over £100mil from an II to purchase distressed dept!! (Cairn Capital Lone fund).
Mediobanca owns Cairn Capital, Mediobanca provide LOANS! in Italy and as part of their wealth management expansion strategy they said they are looking to make acquisitions!!!
Could it be that Stephen won't let it go! lol
Thanks ISA, your correct, I have the past customer turn out super low (20% past borrowers and 5% past guarantors of those who have a claim that I also have low) and as you explained this group swings the vote as they have the higher claims, this is why I have close figures, but I wanted to calculate for worse case. I’m confident the vote will be called in out favour, and it is interesting that in trying to be fair to all customers Amigo have created a situation where they can, in some way improve there chances by mobilising past customers with large balances to vote. Another group I completely dismissed is current customers that are owed a redress over their current balance and I’m sure Amigo are making it clear to this group they need to vote yes to get cash.
Agreed the 1bn figure is madness, after further thought, its safe to just use the £85mil set off amount estimate that Amigo give (and add 30% to be safe), as if current customers have a claim above their current loan (covered by set off) they should vote YES as they would received something under the scheme, so estimating more than that only goes our way regardless. then I'm using an estimate from past claims and Dept Camel estimate of $4500~ per claim for all past claims (as they don't get set off). with these figures and the guesses that I made for who will make claims I make it worse case 61% vote YES and of the YES votes 79% of the total value of votes. Happy to share my workings out if anyone wants it, but not sure how to send excel on here.
Whatever way you look at it, the split of the vote numbers (50%) seems like its in the bag, only current borrowers should vote NO (they all should). But it would be good to hear anyones thoughts on the average redress value for current customers and past customers, Dept Camel suggest £3400 for current and £5000 for past, this would (based on her own guess at the amount of claims) mean £1.2Billion in redress amount. Amigo have already said they see no relastic scenario of a redress above £1Billion, so these figures must be wrong somewhere. Any suggestions on how to predict the redress amount?
PART 2
Criteria 2 - 75% of the value of the claims of all creditors who vote
• Based on the figures above;
o Total Past Customers with a claim – 87,500
o Total Current Customers with a claim – 198,000
o Total Customers with a claim – 285,500
• Average redress amount according to forcescompare.com is £3,533, according to Dept Camel its £5,000, so let’s presume it’s in the middle £4,266.
• Average balance owed to Amigo is estimated at £3400 (gross loan book divided by the number of current customers).
• Current customers will have a lower-than-average claim than the past customers who have repaid the full balance. To simplify will can assume the current customers are owed the full amount of outstanding balance in redress (Dept Camels assumption), this is around 79% of the average redress claim.
• Of this we can make the presumption that once the current customers receive £3,400 per valid claim the remaining average redress amount can be split between the past customers @ £6,225.63, these figures may be a fair amount off, but we are using % in working out the weighted vote average, therefore we just need to have the ratio about correct.
...
If I can get some feedback, I'll get these numbers in a spreadsheet and share the results.....
Hi, Thanks for the vote comments ISA. the way I see it, its a complicated prediction on the 75% value side, but maybe someone can help out with the figures, who it more knowlagble than myself?:
PART 1:
Stats
• Current customers – 300,000
• Past Customers – 700,000
• # Outstanding Loans -137,000
• % Guarantors – At Least 50% based on 300,000 current customers and 137,000 outstanding loans
Criteria 1 - 50% of the people voting
• Only people who think they have a claim can vote.
• Most Guarantors will vote YES, they are highly likely to get nothing in administration, but may receive a redress via the scheme. Only guarantors who made payments can vote, so I’ll make a guess that 95% of those who vote/have a claim will vote YES.
• Not all Current borrowers will vote NO, however for the sake of argument we will presume 95% will vote NO, as most will not trust SchemeCo to uphold their claim.
• Most past customers will vote YES, In administration, there won’t be any cash refunds, only balance set-offs for people with current loans. Only people who would like to see Amigo go insolvent will vote NO (revenge vote), of these they are like to have smaller claims, or they would vote YES to have a chance to receive some compensation.
• Secured creditors do not have a vote in the Scheme
• Of the customers asked to vote current customers are more likely to vote than past.
• According to Dept Camel, a best guess is half to three-quarters of current customers have a claim – lets say 66%.
• Past Customers are harder to estimate, but it is a good guess that less past customers will attempt to claim, however they have nothing to lose in making a claim if voting yes. Dept Camel estimate 20% of past borrowers will make a claim. Of the 500,000 past loans, 50,000 guarantors made a payment, all of these will have a chance at a claim. So let’s presume 5% of past guarantors will vote (50% non-turn out of guarantors who have a vote).
Thanks Franky,, love a typo...
Interesting that Bybrook shorted Arrow and other dept collecting agency’s as they believed the business model to be poor and inflating their expected rates of collections.
Im guessing they are Distressed Debt trading as it seems to fit their business summary ... that involves (cut and paste from somewhere online) purchasing debt obligations which are trading at a distressed level in anticipation of reselling those securities over a relatively short period of time at a higher valuation, generating a trading profit. Funds employing this strategy are generally looking for investment opportunities in which they believe the debt obligations are mispriced and will rebound in value. The holding period on this type of investment is typically short and measured in weeks or even days, which makes this strategy the most liquid in the class.
Hi Franky, maybe a bit cheeky of me to pick ur brain here apologies in advance, DYOR and all that.... I’m just interested in the mechanism behind JPM as the broker for Bybrook when TR1 shows JPM purchasing shares and Bybrook TR1 shows purchasing other financial instruments (in this case seems the dept)? Doesn’t this imply then, if rumours are true, that JPM are buying shares then swapping for dept to sell to bybrook who for dept-to-equity swaps would look to convert to shares later? Why would I’m got show JPM buying financial instruments? And also wondering why buying dept would effect the share price, as we have seen upward action of the back of JPM purchasing??
Kie..
A regurgitation of the FT article, that seems to only serve to apply pressure on the Gov to make the consortium work, good news IMO.
Anything 'evading antibodies' like you said would kill everyone, think about it!! you mad man!
Thanks, intresting .
A excel download of bid and ask prices throughout the day would make this a simple task, but I doupt thats readily available.
Can someone tell me how to tell if trades are buys or sells on the www.londonstockexchange.com ?
Or another resource to find a full list of trades for download.
It would be good look at buy/sell volume against the price over the past couple of days.
Link and page ref below;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13qUdrgWM0IQKuy1w4SkrVPqZz_R2h33v/view
Page C34 or Page 717 in Chronological order. phara 22
In the Abingdon Health/ Good Law project Court bundle the Government Legal Department (DHSC) says the AbC-19TM test have MHRA approval for home use, as part of its defence against the proceedings. what's that all about?
Link and page ref below;
https://drive.google.com/file/d/13qUdrgWM0IQKuy1w4SkrVPqZz_R2h33v/view
Page C34 or Page 717 in Chronological order.
Thanks Guys
Im new to this and ODX is my first stock so this may be a stupid question as I’m just learning the ropes. I just noticed on shares magazine that finncap are one of their advisors. Does this influence in any way?