Member Info for Kheldar

@surfpolo - Smartyp1 meant how many shares market makers would take off your hand at that price

Bizarre

A strong bid but at the moment the buyer(s) adamant in not paying more than 6.08p but no takers. The rns can land tomorrow so let's see who blinks first.

If you're thinking of selling remember what Carver said in FY Accounts 2021 they won't be drilling any new deep well unless they have success with one of the existing ones. You've seen the tender for a new deep well 803.

Question is what price Casp if 802 is flowing?

https://tenor.com/en-GB/view/300-give-them-nothing-sparta-this-is-sparta-nothing-gif-5492771

As @smartyp1 said don't sell your stock cheaply, wait and see what happens later today.

One thing I like about Casp is that it is not a leaky ship. The buying and selling prior to the news is just PIs taking a position.

For those looking for assurances from the buying and selling today to make their decision should not be investing. Here is a link of the chat on lse at beginning of October when price was at 2.3p. It was all doom and gloom lol and we all know what happened after.

https://www.lse.co.uk/ShareChat.html?ShareTicker=CASP&share=Caspian-Sunrise&page=114

ATB and DYOR

@Paul78 - 'No mate. I'm just concerned'

I saw what Wolfi wrote and had a look at your previous comments. This one you wrote back in October '22 :

"somm thanks for your insider, inside info that we will hit 5p very soon. and that you know they are not buying back shares on the quiet. by the way are you talking oven chips or cook in oil chips?"

I suggest you pay attention to what Somm is saying and you can then become 'unconcerned'.

ATB

@Smartyp1 - When I looked into BednIsa I was told that the rule is that you must not exceed your annual ISA allowance of £20,000 per tax year. It could be a rollover but I guess we will find out tomorrow.

@Paul78 - Your comment about people bailing out as fast as they can did make me chuckle. I have no idea whether it is a buy or a sell trade. It doesn't matter whether it's a buy or a sell trade as it will not change the information that Caspian will release. All it means is someone has taken a position before the news is released as you did by selling most of your shares to lock in profits. Like you they've made a decision but we won't know if it was the right decision until we get the RNS which we know for sure we will get before the end of the month.

ATB and DYOR

Not an expert but surely with all the dumping that was done last few weeks, the MMs are now offloading those shares. Today is first time in a while where the MMs are willing to buy 500k+ shares. I don't read too much into this as even if someone is selling then they have decided bad news is on the way but what I do know is that it's not based on any inside information as Casp is not a leaky ship. My main holding g of CASP was bought at beginning of October 2022 and I wouldn't have been able to do that at the cheap price if everyone believed that Casp will pay dividends at that time :-).

As I've said I'm not buying or selling, I'd rather it stays here when Carver finally lets us know what's been going on for last 5 months. I hate big jumps on anticipation and then a complete collapse as that doesn't really do anything for me as I'm here for the dividends.

Paul78: "What price this share if 802 doesnt flow."

802 did flow as they told us in January rns on an open hole basis. Carver even went so far and said current production was 3k+ even though the 802 had been flowing for 3 days. Now that is some confidence you would agree. On top of this we know they have a tender for deep well 803 and we have Carver in the FY 2021 stating that they will not drill a new deep well unless they got one flowing'. Based on this I think 802 is flowing.

The only way you will see a substantial drop is if the company doesn't pay the dividend and its bad news on the shallow and the deep wells. As long as they have increased production even if they are still working on the deeps I think this price will hold. Don't forget the company doesn't have to have to be flowing the deep wells, they just need to prove that oil is there. If they can prove that then at some point one of the big operators will take it off our hands.

Could be a pure coincidence but on HL can sell 675k now for 6.017. I wonder is someone trying to buy back the 1m share they sold.

If Casp want to show they are operating like some of the bigger boys then this Thursday is the first date pencilled on the LSE dividend procedure for declaring a dividend for June.

I think peeps have got today and tomorrow to buy back their shares if they want to partak. As smartyp1 would say tick tock.

ATB and DYOR

This is what carver wrote in his FY 2021 statement on page 6: "However, until we are successful in bringing at least one of these six deep wells into production, it is unlikely we will drill any further deep wells at BNG"

We know there is a tender for 803 but have no idea whether work has started or to commence at some future point. We don't know for sure whether this is going to be an additional well or as Somm said a replacement for A7 but unless the company has changed their mind this must mean 802 is flowing.

I can see a 300k buy trade reported and this will most likely be the large shareholder I keep harping on about. I would say don't sell your shares cheap. At least make them pay a higher price than when they sold.

Caspian board share the minimum information possible so us investors need to look for any breadcrumbs we can find.

Here are some that have led me to believe that very soon we will be moving away from single digit share price:

-- FY 2021 - Carver and Kuat compensation linked to share price and market cap

-- Carvers statements in FY2021

-- Tender for 803

-- Tender for transportation of oil

-- Tender for checking the composition of oil

I'm not asking you to buy but get a fair price for your share. Hopefully we will have news this week.

ATB and DYOR

Erdogan can be anti west as he likes - let’s be honest the west have been trying to kick him out.

However the majority of the Turks align themselves with Europe so Erdogan knows he needs to tread carefully if he wants to stay in power.

Once the election has concluded the pipes will be opened and Citadel will have accumulated enough shares and will remove their short.

Atb

Https://find-and-update.company-information.service.gov.uk/company/05966431/charges/wkREKsm-4ekqbv5q-z4X2i13GDw

This is the debenture

The only news the company have shared is the additional 700 - 900 bopd on well 802 on open hole basis. I would have thought if they are flowing from other intervals or got the shallow wells back to 4k bopd that this would be material news and the company should rns.

Paying off the debenture would have been material news but I'm wondering if they consider they have told us this on the 30th Jan rns by stating 'The current production from Deep Well 802 brings the total production from the BNG Contract Area to in excess of 3,000 bopd.' As Leveller said debenture became payable once production was achieved.

In my opinion the share price is at 6p firstly due to lack of communcation from the Casp board and secondly a large shareholder taking advantage of the low liquidity stock to dump the price to increase their holding.

It look like at some point this coming week we are going to know what our company has actually been doing.

Now there are going to be a few nervous souls so I thought I would share a couple of statements that our Chairman made in the 2021 Financial Accounts report which you can read on companies house.

Page 6:

 However, until we are successful in bringing at least one of these six deep wells into production, it is unlikely we will drill any further deep wells at BNG

 Given the current high oil price and the relatively low risk opportunities on our shallow structure our focus is now to maximise cashflow from production.

The Chairman statement in the financial account sets out the mission and direction. We know of two additional costs that the company has taken on:

a) From Bicotender we know they are drilling a new deep well. It's a turnkey well but at a cost of $5m and as Smartyp1 pointed out the cost of the deep well is about $10m.

b) Additionally we know the company has paid $5m+ debenture.

Where have these additional funds come from to cover these costs? It can't be covered by the dividend money as that would only be £3m.

I'm a glass half full person so I think it must be from increased oil production but not sure if it's the deeps or shallow wells but we will know soon enough. There is another option but you can read for yourself and make up your own mind see Page 19 - section Financial - paragraph beginning with 'Drilling wells at a rate faster...."

A glass half empty person might say that Uncle Kuat has given us another loan which he will be converting into shares six months down the line lol.

As before I think this is a hold but not a buy or a sell. As long as production is still at 2400 and dividend is paid I think 6p is secure. Best to have it that way then price jumps 30% prior to rns and then we get Carver speak which no one understands. If it is really good news then yes the price will jump but at least you will have some certainty if oyu want to buy in.

ATB and DYOR

Onbeyondzebra - thank you, much appreciated

Is there any UK broker with which I can buy Poly? I'm with HSBC and HL but both only allow you to sell.

ps: I know the risks but want to buy with someone that will give me the share certificates when it delists.

thanks

A bit of buying at end of day yesterday. Hopefully FOMO has kicked in and the seller is trying to buy back his shares. The Ask - Bid is currently 6.15 and 5.93. As yesterday my advice is not to buy or sell. Let the seller have to pay more to get his shares back. if you buy and push the price up they have enough shares to bring it down so why bother? Leave to the market to force them to pay higher prices.

Also get your predictions in so we can see who has that uncanny ability to predict the next rambling from Clive. Thanks to Leveller45 and Smartyp1 for taking part.

ATB

Hi Unc,

This is a low liquidity stock with over 80% of the shares not traded leading to those with a decent holding to control the share price with their well timed sells. The only way that will stop is for them to be forced to buy back at a higher price. If people start buying and price goes up we will see a repeat of 20-30% rise followed by an even bigger drop allowing some to gain more shares to play with.

If we don't buy or sell the holders will be forced either to wait for the rns or buy back their shares. The MMs won't give them back cheaply if no one is selling. These large holders have been here for a long time they know better than most about the prize on offer.

I'd rather stay at this price and wait for the news than see ridiculous double digit % rises and drops. All that does is discourage investors away from this stock. When you consider what is on offer on this stock compared to the majority of garbage on aim I find it unbelievable that more people are not willing to invest here.

The Market is weak because a large shareholder(s) are pushing the price down by selling knowing that they can panic newbies to sell when the price drops and end up with more shares. It's true when they say that the majority of PIs buy high and sell low.

To those being panicked into selling I'd say ask yourself why you invested here. At this price Casp has an 8%+ dividend, even without the deeps you have a company producing 2400 bopd. How many other aim companies will give you this?

This is going to sound crazy but don't buy or sell any CASP shares. At some point the person who dumped the 3m shares will need to start buying and at that point the price will go up. That will be the time to sell.

We need to break the cycle here because those with large holdings are not bothered about the shallow wells or the dividends , they are here for the deeps. They want to keep picking up as many shares as they can while the price is low and are keeping the share price suppressed and that's why not more people are investing with this kind of shenanigans. If any of the CASP board looks in on here take notice your bad comms are not helping in that regard. Don't forget Casp don't need to successfully flow any of the deeps as long as they can show plenty of oil , the big boys will come running because with their better resources they will be successful. These large holders are banking on that and so in the short term they are suppressing the price to pick up as many shares as they can.

That's my 'mulder fox' rant for 2023 done.

Just had a look at the current LSE dividend procedure and Casp will need to declare the dividend by 24th May if they want to stick to what they said in the RNS. They can announce it after the 24th to the end the money but that will require them to notify and agree with LSE.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/dividend_procedure_timetable_2023.pdf

Not long to go. The Casp board have quite a few short comings but one thing they can't be accused of is a leaky ship. It is all nonsense when people say the market knows and it is priced in. The share price reflects the will of those who have a large holding. The reason we are at this share price is that a individual (s) dumped 3 m shares to push the price down and is/are probably now accumulating ready for news next week. They are able to do this because there are not many Casp PI holders and because of the lack of comms from the Casp board. We will know soon enough if that was a wise trade.

The market cap of £135m doesn't do this company justice when you consider we produce 2400 bopd and have started renting McBoaty (built at cost of $170m in 2010). It's my belief the share price currently values mcBoaty at £0.

802 is a multilateral well so the flow from the first wellbore branch which was at 900 bopd probably continued to flow around the same rate after perforation and hence no material change so didn't need to do another rns. They have been very quiet on the other well bore branches so at the moment I am assuming they are work in progress. Something must be going right on 802 for them to start work on 803 before completing 802. All will be revealed soon.

Let's have everyones predictions for the next rns, mine are:

- Quarterly dividend will be paid but sadly at same rate

- production increased to 3000 bopd due to additional flow from 802 well

- Work ongoing with baker Hughes on 802 to get the other well bores flowing

- Work started late on shallow wells due to the board getting a 'hard on' on the progress on 802 - WIP

- Work sanctioned on 803 as they believe they can get it flowing at same minimum as 802

- new contract tenders for McBoaty

The one with the most accurate prediction will be known as the King or Queen prescient.

Bring on next week - Come on CASP.

ATB as usual DYOR

@swell2316

You’ll find citadel are doing really well. Their new short position now gains then 12k per 1p drop rather than 10k. Does anybody seriously think they are interested in making a few £100k.

They are using their short position to control the price so they can load up.

Don’t get me wrong this is the Middle East and things can go pear shaped pretty quickly but if Citadel have taken an interest in gkp then they must see some good return.

Atb