Member Info for Kheldar

Looks like the 740k sell was a beer crying moment as could sell 300k at 7.50, 5 minutes before the end.

RNS for Feb dividend
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/CASP/third-monthly-dividend-declaration-4xvkhlhzwimx3y5.html

@Xpublican - If you bought the shares recently after the ex-dividend date then you will get nothing this month but will get the dividend from next month onwards....

740k sell....

but the good news is someone is mopping up though as the bid keeps going up :-)

This is a no brainer now surely. Dividend is about 7.2% at 7.5 I think based on 2400 bopd. If you put the CE and deep wells to one side and they get the shallow wells 141 , 142 and spud new well they could easily add another 2K to the bopd. That alone should see the dividend double.

Here for the dividend.

AIMHO DYOR

smartyp1: Any thoughts on the divi dates ? One week delayed and if that continued it would result in the loss of a couple of payments pa ?

What we do know is that at the moment there is no slippage to what the company promised. The company promised to pay a dividend each month and that is what is happening. Whether that dividend gets paid on the 1st of the month or last day pf the month is neither here or there.

Remember the dividend they have just declared is for the sale of oil in January so they knew the income and would have known early in February if they could pay out or not. I personally think they held it back hoping to get the CE contract signed in February as per the previous rns and increase the dividend. As the signing of the CE contract has now moved to March - hopefully we will get a nice surprise in the next dividend.

From the price action today the market seems to like it as well.

As usual DYOR

ATB

Clive still has until tomorrow to release the rns according to the dividend timetable

It’s obvious they want to announce the news on deep well 802 progress with the divi.

As per the dividend timetable they have until 16/02/2023 to declare a dividend for February.

https://docs.londonstockexchange.com/sites/default/files/documents/dividend_procedure_timetable_2023.pdf

Stop worrying- think multilateral

@DM lol

Great minds think alike DM.

If this is a multilateral well and say we get a minimum of £2k bopd from each borewell then this alone could increase production to nearly 300%.

When you consider 801 was doing 3k bopd before issues arose then 2k bopd must be the minimum here. Obviously if they can het the wells flowing and the make sure Carver doesn’t go near the well with his pie.

ATB

I want to put forward my take on the last update. For transparency, I have no ‘oil field’ expertise and the only knowledge I have, is what I have picked up this forum and through use of ‘google’.

“RNS snippet 1: Oil was encountered sooner than expected at a depth of approximately 3900 meters and before the well had been completed, leading a decision to drill a new side track from a depth of 2416 meters to approximately 4100 meters, targeting the oil at the higher level previously encountered”

Carver has not explained why they took the decision to sidetrack. One reason as Somm pointed out on Wednesday could be due to blockage and/or bad casing. If this was the case then really its a no brainer you have to side track and there is no decision to make. Why sidetrack from 2416 meters and not 3000 meters? Remember they say oil was encountered sooner than expected.
Multilateral well is a new evolution of horizontal wells in which several wellborn branches radiate from the main borehole. This allows one well to produce from several reservoirs.
Is it possible they are building a multilateral well? The sidetrack hole will target the oil at 3900-4100 and the main hole will continue its journey to target the deeper oil?
Baker Hughes provide expertise in multilateral wells - https://www.bakerhughes.com/completions/multilateral-systems

“RNS Snippet 2: after strong gas flows the well has flowed over a period of 3 days”
Which well are they saying is flowing? The main hole or the sidetrack. This is maybe my limited knowledge if they they are still drilling the sidetrack doesn’t that mean the oil is flowing from the main hole? If it is then it does give more weight to the concept of the multilateral well.

Happy to hear views of why this is a non starter?

ps: I am a glass half full kind of person :-)

ATB

Thanks Somm

Hi Somm

Can you clarify something for me about the following in the rns:
"The well had an original planned Total Depth of 5,200 meters targeting oil in the easier to drill Sandstone rather than Carboniferous rock, with an initial target at 4,300 meters below a salt layer between depths of 3,580 and 3,860 meters.

Oil was encountered sooner than expected at a depth of approximately 3,900 meters and before the well had been completed, leading to a decision to drill a new side-track from a depth of 2,416 meters to approximately 4,100 meters, targeting the oil at the higher level previously encountered."

This maybe a stupid question but If they encountered the oil at 3900m why not drill the original to 4100 and then perforate. Why have they drilled a new side-track to drill to 4100?

thanks

A nice tick up today. Reckon an rns tomorrow on the divi and maybe news/progress on 802 and CE charter.

ATB

Well said Noel.

Derampers here frightening people to sell so they can buy in cheap. Sadly a fair few will fall for their strategy.

If this not a big discovery She’ll will not have let them use the words that are in the RNS.

Dyor

I Agree Somm.

Casp bought CE for £12.5m through issue of shares.

The rental income for CE will be about $4.5m a month. If we can rent it out for 4 months a year that’s $18m on top of income from oil.

Surely the rerate on CE as an asset should put it in $150-200m.

To put into context the company market is currently £150m.

Casp is so undervalued just on what is known ignore the fact new wells are being drilled and work being done in deep wells..

@McQueen - nothing wrong with taking profit and you're right we should always be wary as this is AIM after all.

Having said that I am uber confident here. I've bought in for the dividends which we will still get even if the deeps don't flow or they can't charter mcboaty.

Put aside the deeps, current bopd of 2400 is giving us £1m monthly dividend. If they just get the production up to £5k which is achievable by bring online the existing shallow wells. This will give a dividend of 12% even if you bought at 9p. You can't get that at any other company.

Assume the worst and production stays at 2400 bopd - you still get a return of 7.6% even if you buy at 7p- which you have to admit is pretty good.

If McBoaty and the Deeps come in then the returns will be a lot higher lol


This share is a bargain.....

imho MMs filling a big order here with that spread.

HL are offering to take 400k shares for a measly 6.12p. Will wait for 42p :-)

ATB

@siminthezealot - you having sellers remorse? Buy at 3 million at 0.17 shows someone sees value.

You’ve sold move on mate - there are people with a higher average and making comments unsubstantiated comments like ‘bad smell’ is just poor form.

Methinks you thought you could average down but the MMs are not very obliging.

for "laboratory tests of prepared oil for the content of organochlorine compounds. "

https://www.element.com/nucleus/2019/organic-chloride-analysis

Could they be testing the oil from 802? .

My take on the share price is that 4p is the bottom as it’s underpinnned by a very generous 12% dividend. Anything above this needs one of the following to sustain it:

I) increase in production
Ii) increase in price at which oil is sold
Iii) the holy grail - commercial success at deep
Iv mcboaety charter for 2023 - will add a health top up on the dividend

The price has risen as people are not selling at 4p with all of the above in play.

This is Caspian Sunrise time now.

ATB