Member Info for kentan

* 23/10/2019 not as posted.

No mention of a shut-in at AJE that affected production in July in the ADM Energy Sept 30th half-yearly report or in the subsequent AJE-OML113 update (23/11/2019) ... which meant a near 20% loss in production, quite a significant amount.
By hiding these facts and leaving us to find out from our partners does not instil confidence in the management of Adm.
CEO Osamede Okhomina please take note!

https://streamstudio.world-television.com/CCUIv3/frameset.aspx?ticket=819-1577-22787&target=en-default-&status=ondemand&browser=ns-0-1-0-0-0&stream=html5-audio-32
Note:
AJE production was interrupted in July:
" Year To Date average net daily production of approximately 338 bopd with Q3 average daily production at 270 bopd impacted by the field shut-in during July as previously disclosed." (This is based on Panoro's share of the production).
Panoro has plenty of upside with the Petronor deal and their other permits in Gabon & Tunisia.

In one phrase DA says:
"The conditional award of the third Mining Concession to Mutamba Minerals Sands SA completes the tenement set of the Mutamba Project in Jangamo/Inharrime and represents a significant achievement for Savannah in its Joint Venture with Rio Tinto...."
Whereas towards the end of the RNS it clearly states:
Mining Licence application 9230C in the name of Mutamba Minerals Sands S.A., at Chilubane, Gaza Province is still under consideration.
So we are still awaiting the approval for this application?
Any more parked in the pending tray?
I would prefer all the applications to be announced as "Permission Granted" or not at all.
"Conditionally Approved" makes it seem like flannel to placate those that have rattled the cage lately.
Doubt creates uncertainty which in turn affects the share price downwards.

On last years register, as at 30th September 2018, MX Oil owned 195,000 shares purchased at £4.32 ea. = £842,400
Andrew & Anna Frangos are each shown owning 804,000 shares also bought at £4.32 = £3,473,280 each ... quite a substantial investment of around £7m for 3.2% combined. Not the sort of investment made without making sure it has a future.
There may be other holdings hidden in nominee accounts (ie JIM Nominees) where Stefan may have an interest in his own name.
A re-evaluation of the MCAP of the company could be interesting as a private concern.

4 confirmation statements/statements of capital announced today ... they are being processed and will be available in 5 days.
We should get an update on the share register soon.

All well and good ...
But about time there was more effort and progress made on Oman & Mozambique ... another black hole?
These were the permits that encouraged us long term holders to invest in here in the first place.
I hope we don't get parked up a blind alley with Portugal and another interminable wait, while the BOD get richly rewarded with their salaries.

I have just logged into the ADM Energy plc website for Significant Shareholders that has been updated today to include Mrs Anani's 6% holding.
What has disappeared is mention of the shareholding held by Stefan Olivier, since resigned as CEO, which I think amounted to 580,000 shares = 1.0%.
As it is under the threshold of 3% and he is no longer on the BOD it appears there is no need to list his investment.
It would be interesting to know if he still owned the shares and his entitlement to any warrants outstanding.

I have been keeping up to date with Petronor on the Norwegian forum now that they have an interest in Aje.
They have been frustrated with ongoing licence agreements with the Senegalese and Gambian authorities who seem to be dragging their feet with permissions and bureaucracy that seems to be the bane of dealing with the African nations.
This may have been the catalyst for Petronor to turn their attention to Nigeria and Panoro Energy's interests along with the Aje operator Yinka Fulaweyo Petroleum (YFP).
What is interesting, there is no doubt that Petronor has close ties to Abu Dhabi through National Holding & Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), Total and BP.
It is impossible to ignore the fact that these are the same parties involved in both Senegal and The Gambia besides the countries themselves.
From yesterday's headlines
BP, Total sign up to Adnoc LNG supply:
State player produces about 6 million tonnes per annum of LNG from its facilities on Das Island off the coast of Abu Dhabi
12 November 2019 7:46 GMT Updated 12 November 2019 7:55 GMT
by Nishant Ugal in Abu Dhabi
Adnoc LNG has signed liquefied natural gas supply agreements with subsidiaries of UK supermajor BP and French giant Total, booking out a majority of its LNG production capacity until the first quarter of 2022.
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) which owns Adnoc LNG said the agreements were signed by officials from BP, Total and Adnoc LNG, in the presence of Adnoc chief executive Sultan Ahmed Al Jaber, Total chief executive Patrick Pouyanne and BP's boss Bob Dudley.
The agreements were signed on the sidelines of the Adipec conference in Abu Dhabi.

So we can expect the same multinationals to be involved in the major development of Aje once the permissions and structures have been agreed. Only hope the Nigerians are more exercised in completing the formalities, aided by our own Nigerian nationals involved with ADME.

When have Nigerians ever paid up on time?
It is part of their culture ....

Her £129,000 investment at 7p gives her 6% and values the company at around £2,150,000.
With other significant shareholders, including Peel Hunt ( who have minimised their exposure by trading the shares they bought from HH Sheikh Ahmed) plenty are still underwater until this trades up to around 17p.
So the risk-reward for the new investor is pretty well covered despite paying nearly 40% above the current trading price with the likelihood of not being able to buy the amount she has, on the open market, without paying considerably more per share.
It is a bit like a Dragon's Den scenario ... pays £129,000 but she has to have 6% of the company.
Being Nigerian and well placed in the upper echelons of their Society must also help for future negotiations with the Nigerian Government.

Good spot ... more or less what I and others on the Norwegian forum predicted.
You will also see screenshots of my deleted posts re the last lifting ... thanks to @JohnAnderson_10

Until we get an update, perhaps by a confirmation statement in December, there is no information to say what is happening with this speculative investment.
All seems to have gone very quiet since the exciting news of tie-ups with RR, Aerobus & Siemens in March 2018 and their Monaco presentation last Spring ...
Is it still alive or just sleeping?

The proposed on/off IPO for the Saudi owned Oil Company is now back on (just announced on BBC News, albeit 2 days late):
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50070823
Reading through the proposals and reasons, the Saudis are cementing their position for future investment for when oil gradually becomes less valuable and available, for when cleaner and cheaper fuels begin to take over in the diversified energy sector (massive solar farms in the desert, wind farms, lithium & nitrogen powered batteries, supercapacitors etc.).
So with this in mind, the same could be applied to Nigeria with its proliferation of sunshine and resources suitable for the generation of power without the need for oil and gas as the technology moves forward apace.
Therefore diversification away from oil and gas could be the future for all of the West African countries, the market is immense, a foothold now could reap rich rewards.

As part of the diversification plan, there is still the question of the £820k+ invested in Superdielectrics shares (195,000 at £4.32 per share + costs) at this time last year. As they are unquoted, has their value gone up or down? Should the need arise they could be sold at par or a profit. It still remains an asset for all intents and purposes.
There are a lot of people underwater with ADME, including Andrew Frangos and wife, remember they bought in at around 17p before the public cash call at 16p. If he/she had acquired more stock to lower his/their average it would have shown up in an RNS by now (them being significant shareholders). Also, I can't see how the Chinese will let this go on with ever more threat of dilution to their once substantial holding.

Chemtrans Adriatic now back at its berth in Lagos port at 15:39 LT (UTC+1) ... looks like a dummy run whilst empty, came to within 3.5nm of FP then turned around and went back to Lagos.

Interesting ship movement near to Front Puffin ....
Crude Oil Tanker "Chemtrans Adriatic" has recently departed Lagos (02:04 LT (UTC+1) after discharging her load and is now heading directly towards FP and only 4.07 nautical miles away, which is very close in tanker shipping terms. her speed has dropped to 0.6 knots so is virtually stationary against the wind and tide.
At 41,994 gross tonnage, she is capable of carrying approx 327,553.2 barrels of crude at a maximum if needed.
There is no eta on her log for return to Lagos.
Could it be a trial dummy run for when production is ramped up next year?

The thing that always has and always will temper investment by big companies in Nigeria is "CORRUPTION" ... it is endemic in their society. Whether by Government or local interests, there is always the suspicion that someone somewhere is getting a nice backhander to smooth the path of any licences or permissions required to get applications approved quickly.
Having OO on the team, with his inside knowledge of how the game is played (remember his mother was a high ranking officer in the Government and Lagos state), should be beneficial to the Petronor / YFP tie up and minimise any delay to approvals being granted. This in no way says he would be party to any underhand dealings, but he would be well placed to identify anything untoward taking place.
With increased production identified and further advances forecast, ADME should be well-positioned to take a look at diversification in the future, but not rush into anything that does not have legs.

Dan,
It depends on how you interpret the project figures in the Panoro Corporate Presentation on 2210/2019
Project facts for Panoro Energy in AJE OML-113:
Operator ... YFP
Revenue Interest: ... Initially 12.19%
Paying Interest: ... 16.255%
Working Interest: ... 6.502%
So it appears the revenue interest is not what it was originally.

From Wikipedia:
Dangote Refinery, Lagos:-
The refinery is situated on a 6,180 acres (2,500 hectares) site at the Lekki Free Zone, Lekki, Lagos State. It will process about 650,000 barrels of crude oil daily, transported via pipelines from oil fields in the Niger Delta, where natural gas will also be sourced to supply the fertilizer factory and be used in electrical generation for the refinery complex. The project is expected to cost up to $15 billion in total, with $10 billion invested in the refinery, $2.5 billion in the fertilizer factory, and $2.5 billion in pipeline infrastructure.
With a single crude oil distillation unit, the refinery will be the largest single-train refinery in the world. At full production, the facility will be able to produce 50,000,000 litres (13,000,000 US gal) of gasoline and 17,000,000 litres (4,500,000 US gal) of diesel daily, as well as aviation fuel and plastic products. With a greater capacity than the total output of Nigeria's existing refining infrastructure, the Dangote Refinery will be able to meet the country's entire domestic fuel demand, as well as export refined products.
Update from Reuters 17 hours ago:
Completion has been delayed to the end of 2020 because of construction problems with the steel supply, but that has now been resolved. The projected start, after testing and commissioning, is 2022.
So there are already plans on the table for the incoming crude oil & gas condensate pipelines, the issues at the moment are with pipelines needed to distribute the output once refined. The refinery would otherwise create massive traffic problems in an already crowded Lagos with the movement of road tankers going to and fro.
Dangote also plan to build a plastics and bi-products plant adjacent to the site to process and manufacture, creating jobs and a boost to the economic wealth of the region.
650,000 bopd of crude throughput easily takes what both AJE & OGO fields produce at the moment and in the future, it is mind-boggling amounts.
The multinational oil companies (Exxon, Shell etc.) who currently supply refined petroleum to Nigeria will be losing a major part of their business, so I can see them wanting a piece of the action in the oil fields themselves, so expect them to make movements to cover their positions.
It all looks to be progressing nicely, just wait and see.