Member Info for kentan

This is all speculation at present, but it makes sense when you see Nigeria currently imports refined oils (petrol etc)., so with their own refinery they need feedstock ... what better than a direct pipeline from the adjoining oil fields (AJE OML-113 & OGO OPL-310) to the Dangote Refinery, a relatively short distance?
This could be partially or wholly funded by the Nigerian Government with leasing terms to the oil companies on barrelage contracts. As the minnows in the proposed consortium, ADME would have minimal expenditure (Capex).
Another Win-Win possibility, along with the gas.

I have done some rough calculations based on the formula of 1 tonne of crude oil = 7.8 barrels of crude oil.
Afra Willow has a gross tonnage (cargo capacity) of 57,567 tonnes.
This equates to 449,022.6 barrels of crude oil when full. For argument's sake, let us round it up to 450,000.
Her current draught is given as 12.4m(83.33%) with a maximum of 14.88m., which equates to 374,985 barrels this time (375,000 rounded up). You would have seen that past lifts have been in the region of 400,000 barrels.
So a rough calculation of production at 5,500 bopd for 90 days (3 months) = 495,000 (and rising) barrels which leads me to think they will have to have 4 lifts a year, unless they commission a larger tanker such as a supertanker like MV Karvounis (gross tonnage capacity of 80,427t.) which has a cargo maximum of 627,330.6 barrels when full.
I note that Petronor, once involved in production, propose to use (install?) a pipeline to pump crude oil (and gas condensate) directly to a refinery in Lagos, which I presume to be the newly commissioned, Nigerian owned, Dangote Refinery, one of the largest refineries in the world and thereby avoiding the need for crude oil tankers.

Dan,
From the Panoro Norwegian discussion site, the year on year increase has been as follows, adjusted to their working interest at 6.502% :
Panoro share at 310 bopd in 2017 = 4,768bopd but also affected by shutdowns for repair
330 bopd in 2018 = 5,075bopd
379 bopd in 2019 = 5,829bopd but this is estimated for the full year.
So calculated at 350 bopd = 5,383bopd as in their recent presentation to be on the low side, therefore 5,500bopd would indicate an approximate 10% increase over the year. This is from Aje 4 & Aje 5 wells (Not 3 & 4 as I wrote before).
Petronor indicated that they expect to increase the yield still further with the extra drilling of the 2 rims to 7,000 to 12,000bopd with an ultimate target of 20,000bopd, a near fourfold increase on what we are experiencing at the moment.
Nigeria has been and is flouting the directive from OPEC to cut back on oil production, something they have done for many years.
The current market valuation of ADME, given what we know, is massively discounted and is being manipulated by Peel Hunt on a daily basis for their own ends.

Afra Willow now back on the radar with our cargo on board, showing a draught of 12.4m so fully laden, rounded The Cape heading for Melbourne with an eta of 17th November.
I estimate the uplift was similar to the last one, but with the increased choke on AJE 3 & 4 wells to around 5,500bopd and rising they will need to shorten the interval from 4 months (June to October being the most recent) to 3 months in future, so the pay revenues will be 4 times a year instead of 3. Therefore expect the next lifts to be in January, April, July & October 2020.
Let's hope the oil price holds up or even increases.

Very interesting to see the UAE (Abu Dhabi) connection of Petromal under the umbrella of National Holdings LLC, one of Abu Dhabi's leading privately-owned conglomerates, that invests in a multitude of companies with a massive portfolio.
Petronor E & P is just a small cog in the wheel, being a subsidiary of Petromal, which in turn is a sector of National Holdings with the confidence and backing it brings.
It now occurs to me that there might have been a conflict of interest between HH Sheikh Ahmed and his distant cousins in Abu Dhabi who run National Holdings that caused him to relinquish his position with ADME ... the wheels had been turning for some time previous in the takeover of Panoro Energy and his involvement in AJE may have been seen as an interference in their scheme of things to come. That is just a hypothetical theory, although it may have some truth in it.
It can only cement the future of the partnerships in AJE OML-113 to have the backing of the UAE conglomerate with their philosophy of investment to obtain sustained shareholder growth.
National Holding LLC website:
http://www.nh.ae/en/home.aspx

Strange all my recent posts on this board were taken down... All the information I have given is in the public domain.
I replied to CEO Osamede asking if it would be OK to post up what he told me and had not received a reply, so took it as read it would acceptable.
The movements of oil tankers was an observation available to anyone who cared to look up.
Seems my posts have been misinterpreted by moderators on here.

Have done a bit of digging regarding the history of PetroNor:
About PetroNor: http://petronorep.com/petronor-ep-new/
Strategy & Technology: http://petronorep.com/strategy-and-technology/
Timeline from 2005: http://petronorep.com/history/
Most recently (August 2019), a reverse take-over between PetroNor E&P and African Petroleum Corporation was completed.
Combined companies now listed on the Oslo Stock Exchange under the ticker PNOR.
There is no published shareholder list that I can find, but they claim to have backing from long term Abu Dhabi and major institutional investor(s).
Their technology and experience gained in deep waters off Norway, that they now apply to similar offshore prospects in West Africa, can only give credence to their ability to repeat the processes in the AJE field.
This is no mickey mouse outfit, they mean business and the acquisition of Panoro Energy looks a perfect fit for their ambitious programme to bring OML-113 on line with increased oil & gas condensate reserves exploited to the full.
It gives confidence, after many false dawns, ADME (or whatever it is rebadged as) will benefit greatly from their alliance with PetroNor in whatever capacity. A much sounder footing than before.
Time will tell ... keep the faith and have patience.

Could be that there will be a carryover to tomorrow's trades for some sizeable trades (buys and sells) that the MM's do not want to reveal on today's list ... sometimes backdated several days when it suits them.
Perhaps the multiple 500k share buyer will suddenly appear again ... that was how the Chinese used to mop up stock in the past to accumulate a sizeable holding ... they have been suspiciously quiet of late, but their presence hasn't gone away.

I shouldn't have to ... they should keep us informed.
OO may be more approachable than his predecessor, Stefan Olivier, who seemed to be more intent on enjoying himself on his inflated salary (at our expense) than caring for shareholders.
Hopefully OO reads this bulletin board ... if he doesn't, then he should!

To get back to matters in hand ...
Afra Willow departed Luanda Anchorage off Angola on the 20th October 13:59 local time (UTC+1), still showing a draught of 8.2m (empty) and has been out of communication ever since ... unless you pay a subscription to Marine Traffic (which I don't).
It was last seen heading WNW off of the West African coast with the original destination of Fujairah (UAE) in its timeline.
So what is going on? ... I can't believe this crude oil tanker is aimlessly touring the seas off of Africa without cargo and popping into the nearest ports to just say hello ... Is it returning to Front Puffin? It first arrived in the waters around it on Sept 30th and circled for days ... not cheap to keep a vessel like this in service.
Why would ADME not post up an RNS operations update to say there had been a lift and the cargo had been transferred at either Yoho (Nigeria) or more recently at Luanda (Angola) ... why all the mystery?

Thanks for your interest.
I have been around this share for 2 re-incarnations, from the distant days of Astar Minerals, when we were suckered into the Mexican debacle and change of name to MX Oil to reflect the possibility of millions ... that quickly faded once the truth came out about our partners Pemex.
Then there was the ridiculous phantom $18m bid by the Nigerian Consortium that never materialised, again a false dawn.
Recently the goings-on that surrounded the Sheikh and the name change to ADM Energy, though believable and did happen, proved to be another disastrous foray into the market once he had mysteriously resigned as self-appointed President and sold his shares.
This all happened under the stewardship of Stefan Olivier ... once could have been a genuine mistake, the second time it looked very dubious, to say the least. The third you couldn't make up (but Stefan did and got away with it). Now he is history but his partner in crime is still lurking in the background ... I do not need to spell it out.
That is why I could never recommend a buy ever again on this share, no matter what transpires. From now on it is "Hold" only until there is an opportunity to get out at par (20p).
Will it ever get to 25p again ... unlikely now Stefan has gone, so no likelihood of another "Miracle Phantom Buyer" sniffing around (Spoof news) to ramp the price.
Panoro Energy is a very well run company, it keeps its mainly Norwegian investors up to date on what is going on with a CEO who has empathy with the personal shareholders. It is a pity it is not listed on AIM or the junior market in the UK, if it was I would be an investor (and would have seen my investment rise 300%+).
I will continue to monitor all and everyone involved in ADME, past and present, to see what little games they are up to.

From the announcement:
The deal will have an effective date of June 30, 2019, with a long-stop date of December 31, 2020. The sale requires approval from the Department of Petroleum Resources (DPR) and the Nigerian Minister of Petroleum Resources. Other companies have struggled to make timely progress on asset sales in Nigeria, with the approval process being dragged out. Should it take more time, both companies have the option to end the process.
The contingent payment is triggered once the Pan-Aje subsidiary has covered all costs spend to the date of completion. Following this, PetroNor would pay Panoro $0.15 per 1,000 cubic feet of gas produced for sale from the Aje field, up to $25mn. Gas from the field will be exported to Lagos. The first phase of production from Aje began in May 2016 and is currently producing around 3,000 bpd of oil and condensate.

So from that, we can expect a protracted approval process by the Nigerian Government and if it takes too long both parties can pull out of the deal. Nothing moves quickly in this respect in Nigeria or anywhere else in Africa (unless wheels are oiled ... get my drift?).
The $25m ceiling for the gas royalty deal to Panoro, although attractive, is many, many years down the line, to date, we are nowhere near the funding process to facilitate the next phase (gas), let alone have a fully producing gas pipeline in place.
The mention of the pipeline to Lagos makes sense with the newly constructed giant Dangote refinery about to come online.

This deal is not only about the sale of Panoro's interest in AJE OML-113, but it is also the very lucrative royalty payments they will receive once the gas starts to flow ... and all this without having to pay a penny (NOK) towards the development costs, estimated at $500million. So the calculated $10m sale is not the final figure in the equation.
It would be a no brainer that ADME would bite the hands off of Petronor for the same deal ... will we accept?

Perhaps the phantom RNS, that never appeared today, was to spill the beans on the new partnerships in AJE?
It may have been pulled after review?
Expect it 7:00am tomorrow.

This announcement is only a part of the complete reorganisation and funding of AJE OML-113 between PetroNor and Yinka Fulawiyo Petroleum (FWP) to establish a new company dedicated to AJE OML-113 oil & gas field.
The full realisation of the oil potential (20,000boepd) with an increase from 3,000bopd to between 5,000 - 7,000bopd in the near term with the next phase of drilling the Turoniam and Cenomanium rings to release the oil and gas condensate reserves.
These talks have been going on since before last June 30th, it may be what our CEO OO had been privy to, but could not say in public..... I do not think it was a coincidence the BOD changes of ADME were announced today.
Panoro watchers expect a 20% + rise in the share price when the markets in Oslo open tomorrow ...
Next stop ADME for PetroNor,? .... Why would they want a minnow like us interfering in their scheme of things?

https://finansavisen.no/forum/thread/55730/view
Translate from Norwegian.
Can only be good news for ADME, PetroNor is a $1billion company, so underwrites the future for OML-113 with a viable partner to take on the gas production phase.
It also gives a value to what ADME's share of the AJE project is worth and should propel our SP likewise.
Expect an RNS tomorrow ... things now moving quickly.

I always thought of Sergio Lopez (non-exec director) as the spare part left over from Mexico (MXO) days ... but there now seems to be a connection with him to the new Non-Exec Chairman Peter Francis ... the two words:... Eagle Ford ... from Oracle Energy's website it is their newly acquired prospect in Texas and Sergio Lopez developed the Eagle Ford Shale prospect in Mexico.
Apologies for my misspelling of Manuel Lamboley.

It now seems the way has been cleared for the new regime to take control, but it is noticeable that there are separate factions represented by each director.
New non-executive chairman Peter Francis brings experience, he departed Oracle Energy plc., once their focus returned to the US oil field, Eagle Ford in Texas, from their West African prospecting. He will certainly bring contacts and confidence to any new WA oil-related acquisitions.
Richard Carter is Johnny Hon's man on the BOD and he steps up to an executive role of COO, to represent the Chinese holder's interests and take a more active role.
Manuel Lampoley is Zark's man with their newly acquired holding (6.68%).
Andrew Frangos still owns 8.89% of the company with his Lesoza & Winrose shareholding, so it is interesting to see who is his man on the BOD now that Stefan Olivier has left. Stefan still owns 1.01% in his name.
What we now need to know and it is the tipping point... Who will Peel Hunt offload their sizeable shareholding (18.20%) to?
(All figures are taken from the updated ADM Energy plc website (21/10/2019)

Crude oil tanker "Afra Willow", who departed Front Puffin on 10th October and visited Yoho Offshore terminal en route, has emerged today showing it arrived at Luanda Anchorage, Angola on 18/10/2019 21:56 (UTC +1).
Still showing the same draught of 8.2m (empty) as when it left FP.
Seems a lot of secrecy surrounding its itinerary and intentions.
Meanwhile, there has been no other activity around FP, just the same Nigerian Special Forces security vessel.

Latest on Crude Oil Tanker "Afra Willow"... Departed Yoho Port (offshore Port Harcourt Nigeria) on 2019-10-14 at 08:36 LT (UTC).
No idea of orders, direction, speed or draught as GPS still turned off, unless you have the paid version of Marine Traffic to get the satellite info...