Ben Richardson, CEO at SulNOx, confident they can cost-effectively decarbonise commercial shipping. Watch the video here.
@Jimmy - The 200m+ carbonate reef was maximum thickness - at the position where they are planning to put the next MOU-NE well. It was always known that MOU-4 was right at the edge of the Jurassic structure, and was planned to be sub-optimal in order to penetrate both the MOU-Fan and Jurassic at their small point of overlap.
Before I go off to bed - I circulated this note to some more technically-minded folk off-board, but will also post it here in case anyone has a view:
'On a re-read of the RNS, I noticed this, under the Sandjet Phase 2 programme: "MOU-4. Thin Jurassic dolomite reservoirs". I am curious if these reservoirs (note the plural) are distinct from the previously mentioned carbonate reef, which I assumed was normal limestone, or an improved description of it after petrological analysis. Either way this is interesting, since dolomites usually have better porosity than non-dolomitized limestones.'
I have been contacted by a shareholder disappointed by the RNS, on the basis that it mentions a plateau production rate of only 10 mmcfgd from the Ma & TGB2 sands, and they complain that this is far below the flow rates that I have talked about.
1. This is from just two of the smaller reservoir intervals from only two wells.
2. The profit from just this revenue stream would give PRD a price : earnings ratio of 1.7.
3. The same paragraph in the RNS says that the flow rate from these two horizons could potentially be 20 mmcfgd.
4. "Sandjet rigless testing results will determine in the shorter term any ability to upscale to a 50 mmcfgpd production profile facilitated under the Collaboration Agreement for a CNG Gas Sales Agreement with Afriquia Gaz."
5. "The discretionary drilling programme may have to be aligned with a requirement to further develop the CNG industrial gas market above the 50 mmcfgpd cap set in the Afriquia Gaz Collaboration Agreement."
6. "A successful well may create a new potential gas market (gas-to-power) if the scale of the opportunity for the MOU-4 NE structure is realised."
7. We now can add in some estimates for T & T.
8. There is continued press speculation that the Irish General Election will be held in September this year, with Minister Eamon Clown almost certain to be dethroned.
9. I stand by my variously derived forecasts of PRD's near-term future value.
10. Today's muted reaction indicates that the market in general still has no understanding of the potential.
I also like the potential bringing forward of the Jurassic drilling subject to funds, with the shallow sands appraisal wells AND the re-entry of MOU-2 to follow as cash allows - sensible prioritisation.
Thos who have (understandably) complained about the reduced conventional testing programme can now see the reasoning in detail - many of the prospective horizons will be difficult to test with conventional peroration, and likely to reveal superior results with Sandjet - see, Paul does know what he is doing!
🦖 Morocco -
* All in hand, not more I can say until we see results, but interesting to note a date for the Sandjet follow-up of the more friable reservoir horizons. Hopefully that will give some folks here some comfort.
* CPR for all MOU wells to follow testing results - that will be very interesting re maximum aggregate flow rates and of course most importantly, the overall volume.
* All testing complete by end March (assuming a real-life calendar, not in Griffith months)
* Possible exploitation licence in March.
🦖 T & T.
* The proposed FDP gives the second best IRR I have ever seen (241%) in several decades of project appraisal - the best being that for the G2EU possibility for Guercif.
* Possible acquisition of TXP stake in C-M looks interesting, I would welcome some kind of cooperation agreement with Touchstone
* Recovery factor looks conservative - short-term dependent on how successful the dewaxing is, longer term EOR using the natural gas resource of C-M.
Will follow up further after I have had time to go through everything in detail - probably over the weekend.
Our favourite amateur policeman writes: "A strategy may function or fail but has characteristics which should ameliorate short term unforeseen problems: hence why I posted the JSE clip where I am 35% up."
That JSE clip was from 3 years ago, when the share price was in the 80 - 100p range, it is now 35p. 35% up???
They also said: "We must all in this life be prepared to be both open to criticism and prepared to mitigate any proven deficits by calling for help". Suggest you dial 999 now and get some professional help.
@Oilyfred. RNS 30th November 2023:
"The Company will maintain an opportunistic strategy with respect to potential sale or farmout of some project equity where market conditions are conducive to such transactions and the commercial terms are attractive. Given that the Company is well-financed to deliver all of its current near-term firm strategic objectives for its substantially de-risked oil and gas portfolio, any dilution of project equity would need to be a compelling value proposition for shareholders."
That doesn't sound like a placing to me. Also there is no need for one - same RNS (my emphasis):
"* PGVL IS FULLY FUNDED to execute a pilot CNG development project (the "CNG Project") in Guercif.
* The previously announced acquisition of TRex Holdings Trinidad Limited ("TRex") and the Cory Moruga field WAS COMPLETED USING DISCRETIONARY CASH on the Company's balance sheet THAT WAS SURPLUS to the CNG Project financial requirement.
* Initial development of the Cory Moruga field will require only LOW COST workovers of up to four existing wells and IS FULLY FUNDED BY THE DISCRETIONARY CASH on the Company's balance sheet.
* By the second half of 2024 TRex is expected to be GENERATING SIGNIFICANT POSITIVE CASH FLOW from workover operations."
GRH on X:
"ROB regards the #PRD deal on Cory Moruga
As a straightforward, conventional oil play
Close to :
1...Infrastructure
2...Very willing market
3...1P status"
11:26 PM · Jan 7, 2024
My response:
May I add:
4...Unlike most of T & T heavy oil, Snowcap-1 flowed sweet, light crude - 37° API.
5...CPR is likely to show a minimum of 20 MMBbl
6...Purchase price of US$ 0.40c or less per in-ground Bbl onshore is the cheapest deal I can recall.
I expect the CPR for Cory-Moruga this week, as a taster here is an IPR - Incompetent Person's Report - which may give some background to what we could see.
Trinidad has been an interesting location for the last couple of hundred million years. About 150 Ma (million years ago) the North & South American tectonic plates separated, forming the Gulf of Mexico - poor little T & T was left hanging on to the outer edge of the S American plate. For the next 100M years or so it was the Cretaceous period, with lots of organic material deposited in warm shallow seas. Then around 80 Ma, the South American plate split from the African Plate, forming the South Atlantic Ocean (N. Atlantic formed earlier) and once again T & T was left on the outermost corner of its plate. Continuing tectonic movement caused slumping and rifting, with the organic-rich Cretaceous rocks becoming deeply buried, forming a vast hydrocarbon kitchen. I mean VAST. Have a look at this resource map I have posted on Twitter -
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1743909817155309710/photo/1
- you can see that Trinidad is at the intersection of the prolific Western Atlantic Margin (Guyana/Suriname Basin), and the Eastern Venezuelan Basin. Venezuela has more oil than any country on earth - more than the KSA. So why is it not a super-rich nation? - the answer is political - Venezuela is in effect a failed state.
Anyway, back to the history. Around 30 Ma, huge influxes of sand from what is now the middle part of Trinidad flowed southwards underwater into a large rift, forming extensive turbidites. These are now called the Herrera Sands. Then during The Miocene (23 - 5 Ma) and Pliocene (5.4 - 2.4 Ma), a series of compressive events occurred as the Caribbean and S. American tectonic plates squeezed together. This caused extensive faulting, folding and even thrusting (sorry, it means something different in geology - thrusting is where one sequence of rock strata gets pushed up over itself, so that you get a repetition of the same rocks - in some Trinidad locations you can drill vertically through the same oil reservoir twice). The main structure beneath the SW Trinida peninsula is the Los Bajos Fault. which runs WNW - ESE, and acts as the feeder from the deep oil kitchen up to the network of lesser faults that run up into the Herrera Sands reservoirs. These reservoirs include anticlines, fault closures, thrust/fault closures, plus the occasional salt diapir. Cory Moruga is just to the NE of the Los Bajos Fault.
The oilfields surrounding Cory-Moruga have been tapped for decades, and are now largely depleted - they need CO2EOR, but that's another story. I have dug up some MEEI data from when these field were in their youth - 1992. Moruga E, W & N -79K Bbl per year, 13.5 MMBbl cumulative from start. Plus Penal-Barrackpore just to the North - 1096K Bbl per year, 101MM Bbl since start. All these fields still produce.
Whether it is a trivial thing to change chokes or not is not the point. Yes, it is a straightforward physical operation, but the whole point is to get a choke size that gives you maximal flow, but at a stable rate. You can do this on a trial-and-error basis, but good luck with that. Most people would start with a calculation of likely flow using measured variables - the original calculation is Gilbert's equation - I can't get this to copy properly here, but you can Google: Gilbert equation +choke.
This is pretty accurate - in one study, arithmetic prediction of over 1000 gas wells had a correlation with real-world flow rates of 0.8978. Later work by Tangren, Guo and others has produced modified equations that bring R up to almost 1. To optimise the flow by choke diameter you would then use the Vogel equation - again it is too complex to copy it here, but again Google: Vogel equation +choke.
The point I was trying to make was that the original Reddit note by Methodology
https://www.reddit.com/r/PredatorOilandGasPRD/comments/t8ssg0/mou1_the_rharb_basin_net_pay_vs_well_flow_rate/
may be underestimating the likely flow rates that we will (hopefully soon!) see from the MOU-Fan.
There was some discussion on Telegram concerning chokes for gas flow testing. I posted this:
Take a look at the Reddit post about well productivity from the Rharb Basin. Different size chokes were used, mostly around half inch (or 32/64 as the Americans annoyingly put it). I have suggested that PRD have higher pressured and larger reservoirs, so may well be able to flow test using larger chokes, hence get better flow rates per metre than have SDX.
This article on Eni's (now failed) project on the southern Morocco Atlantic shelf may be of interest to the financially-minded who may wish to compare with Guercif economics - it contains data on projected break-evens, IRR, NPV etc.
https://www.spglobal.com/commodityinsights/en/ci/research-analysis/could-enis-nfw-unveil-further-potential-offshore-morocco.html
@SandyB (+anyone else looking for trade data). lse is not showing any trades today, but the real LSE is - see:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/PRD/predator-oil-gas-holdings-plc/trade-recap
I put a diagram on Twitter that may be of interest:
https://twitter.com/KQuick20704342/status/1742115469648351510
@MEM - The post here last week you mention was referring to Regeneron in RSA. Totally different geology & origin of gases.
Gas composition for MOU-1 was RNS'd on 6th July 2021. Between 605 and 1487m - methane, plus traces of C2, C3 & C4. No Helium. RNS of 13th June 2023 confirmed the connection of reservoirs at various levels in MOU-3, thus gas composition would be expected to be the same for the whole basin - "The presence of overpressured gas trapped at shallow depths in a common structural closure above the next Ma and TGB-6 targets has de-risked vertical thermogenic gas charge from deeply buried source rocks generating dry gas. Migration pathways can now be identified on seismic based on the early MOU-3 drilling results." This was an extremely important statement that appears to have been overlooked by many - put simply, it means 'it's very big and it's all connected.'
Happy holidays to all, and we wish you and your families a peaceful and very prosperous new year.