Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I would wager that there is some major misunderstanding here, unless it is deliberate obfuscation. This article sums up what may or may not happen to Azeri gas getting to Europe (or not) via the proposed increased capacity of the TANAP pipeline. There is absolutely zero chance of it being routed to Morocco, assuming Azerbaijan are ever able to produce it, and the TANAP owners being able to justify the huge development costs. Bizarre comment.
https://eurasianet.org/plans-for-doubling-azerbaijans-gas-flows-to-europe-on-hold
"The plans to double exports of Azeri gas to Europe were agreed under a memorandum of understanding between the European Union and Azerbaijan signed in July last year. The agreement was signed in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine the previous February and growing fears that the loss of Russian gas imports of upwards of 180 billion cubic meters a year would leave Europe starved of gas and suffering widespread power outages.
The wording however was not that of a formal commitment, signalling only that the two sides had agreed to "aspire" to support doubling Azeri gas exports to Europe to "at least 20 billion cubic meters of gas annually by 2027, in accordance with commercial viability and market demand." But while Europe has faced unprecedented increases in energy prices, a continent-wide energy shortage has been avoided thus far thanks to greatly increasing imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and boosting power generation from other sources such as coal, nuclear and renewables.
This has left both sides facing a conundrum. If there is no gas shortage, there is no guaranteed market for the extra gas Azerbaijan is supposed to supply, and no reason to invest in expanding either production or the capacity of the pipelines.
At the same time, it's still unclear just how much extra gas Azerbaijan will be able to supply, and when."
I would agree with Graham that the section worded
"MOU-3 - 1,406.0 to 1,412.0 metres RKB (within Moulouya Fan interval)" ... "Subject to establishing the potential quantum of gas flow rate for the Moulouya Fan interval in MOU-3, an option to replace the Ma Sand test in MOU-1 would be considered as follows: MOU-4 - 873.85 to 879.85 metres RKB (within Moulouya Fan interval)."
implies that management think there is a good chance that just the relatively thin section of the MOU-Fan reservoir to be tested will supply enough gas for the initial CNG operation. Why make this potential change? - if there is a good enough gas flow from this interval at MOU-3, there will almost certainly be the same rate from MOU-4 (making what some might consider to be a big assumption that there is no reservoir compartmentalisation). Two producer wells will be required to ensure continuity of supply in case there is a problem with one well, or if maintenance is needed.
Now I need some collective help in interpretation of the rest of that RNS, specifically on financing. It is clear that the following are fully funded from existing cash resources:
* T-Rex (Cory-Moruga) acquisition.
* 4 x well workovers on C-M.
* CNG pilot development.
I assume that the following are fully funded, although it is not specifically stated:
* The rigless testing programme as detailed.
* 5 x EIAs for new Guercif drill sites.
NOT currently funded, and potentially from C-M cash flow if nothing else comes sooner:
* Jurassic carbonate 1100m well
Funding status not specifically mentioned:
* Appraisal of shallow sands found at MOU-3, plus the Ma sands - one well to 800m, one to 1000m, both apparently new sites, since EIAs are being processed for both.
Anyone have any (sensible) observations on this, please?
Lonny had better check the potential drill sites for the Jurassic carbonate prospect - the new motorway route will likely run right over the top, as it connects the existing A2 motorway (100m from MOU-2) to the planned upgrade of the Mediterranean port of Nador, for which LNG facilities are planned.
Bad - Rod is back
Good - Bo is no longer a Director, Rob Edwards is gone. Eric Sondergaard is back.
Very good - "In due course, the new Board will update shareholders regarding the implementation of a new strategy that will focus solely around developing the Disko magmatic massive sulphide project in Greenland."
I would be very interested to hear the views of folks who have been shareholders for a few years.
Far too hot today to be an armchair geologist/ceo/strategist, so doing it from a hammock on the veranda. Today would be the last day this year to give an update, before everybody goes away for a couple of weeks, mentally and/or physically. Not a good idea to issue a C-M CPR without a mention of progress in Morocco. It would only be worthwhile issuing an update if there is something concrete – firm dates – to mention. If not, better to wait until January, then issue the CPR timed so that the RNS can also confirm that flow testing has actually started. What would I hope to see in an update? – A statement of strategy for 2024. Here's my PowerPoint!
Consider this:
💲More money was raised a few months ago than was required for the bare-bones plan.
💲Further cash has been saved by getting C-M cheaper than anticipated.
💲A reduced flow testing programme has saved a bit more.
💲There is the possibility of the CNG trucks being paid for by Afriquia.
💲Debt finance or leasing are possibilities for the rest of the CNG plant.
My guess is that Paul & Lonny are overheating their calculators working out the best way of using this cash to achieve:
🦖Short Term Objective – next 6 months – achieve positive cash flow, avoid further dilution, and be independent of a particularly fickle market. This may be either by -
🎇Testing just enough of Guercif to convert the MOU to a GSA, and getting the CNG operation up & running, or,
🎇Re-entering C-M Snowcap-1 and flowing oil. Given the frequently noted T & T traits of procrastination, incompetence, indolence & corruption, this would not be my personal choice, but since I know next to nothing about this specific opportunity, will have to defer to Paul & Lonny's expertise & experience.
🦖Mid Term Objective – 6-12 months – use the cash flow to work up Guercif to readiness for sale, by
🎇Drilling MOU-3 Twin to appraise the Middle Sands.
🎇Drilling Jurassic carbonate reef to determine reservoir characteristics and dimensions.
🎇Comprehensive testing of all remaining MOU-Fan horizons, using Sandjet for the friable reservoirs, as well as the newly-drilled Middle Sands & Jurassic. This would determine connectivity and volumes as well as flow rates for the whole basin.
🎇Sell all or a majority of PGVM, the Moroccan subsidiary.
🦖Longer Term Objective – 12-24 months
🎇Develop C-M, assuming it is the huge opportunity Paul claims - the Herrera Sands have produced one hell of a lot of oil, and this is just about the last undeveloped prospect.
🎇Set up a partnership CO2EOR business in T & T, as the country's authorities are now requiring for all oil operations - noteworthy that Paul is a member of the T & T EOR steering committee.
🎇Sell the Irish assets after the Greens are kicked out at the next elections – either Autumn 2024 or latest Spring 2025.
"The collectable 50p coin series featuring Tyrannosaurus, Stegosaurus and Diplodocus is available to purchase from The Royal Mint’s website, with colour editions of the coin also available. Prices start from £11."
https://www.royalmint.com/aboutus/press-centre/a-roar-some-reveal-the-royal-mint-unveils-new-50p-coins-featuring-iconic-dinosaur-specimens--including-t-rex/
For completeness, it should be pointed out that the statement “The key objective of the testing programme was to ensure that all required rigless test data were available within the extension of the Initial Period of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement and corresponding Exploration Permits enabled by Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.3.” was followed by "On 8 November 2023 PGVL was informed by ONHYM of an unforeseen administrative regulatory issue as a consequence of which the Joint Ministerial Order approving the Guercif Petroleum Agreement Amendment No.3 had yet to be issued.
As a result PGVL had to stand down at short notice mobilisation of its rigless testing well services and international personnel to await resolution of the issue by third parties. The matter was resolved and the Joint Ministerial Order is expected to be issued shortly."
So, we don't yet know if the JMO has been issued, in consequence of this testing may not be complete by February 5th, but this is not important - PRD have already met all the requirements for this extension, and the delay is the Moroccan government's fault, not PRD's.
Re the Cory Moruga CPR, there was no guarantee that this would be available in December - the wording was "An independent technical report for the Cory Moruga asset with indicative production profiles and near-term revenue projections is expected to be released before the end of 2023."
As @Ibiza observes, it would be extremely supportive for management credibility if the next RNS gives certainty to what is happing in both Morocco & T &T, and that this is preferably followed up by an interview in which Paul is able to rein in his more combative traits.
Hopefully this will be next week rather than next year. That would put an end to someone's price suppressing agenda, where every day starts with a 100K sell. I assume the troll campaign is associated with this - curious how three supposedly different accounts have all used the rather unpleasant term 'spaffing into the desert' (which is based on 1980's Oxford University undergraduate slang) that I have only seen used once elsewhere - in the malignant spewings of Tom Winnifrith. Curiously, both TW and a poster here also use the phrase 'the brain of half an egg sandwich'. Must be purely coincidental.
Re post today @ 18.20
I would be highly interested to hear how it is proposed to make cement and fertilizer just from electricity, solar or otherwise - both require large volumes of natural gas as part of the chemical process. Fertiliser is Morocco's largest export sector - 18% of the economy, cement is one of the largest internal sectors. The largest overall trade sector (export and internal consumption combined) is agriculture, which accounts for 40% of the country's employment and is thus a key to social stability. Agriculture requires fertilizer, which requires gas. Lots of gas. You can work out who owns the largest agricultural business in Morocco - Les Domaines Agricoles, formerly named Les Domaines Royaux.
Shell gas imported from Spain is currently $17 / mcf. This is too expensive for industrial customers to compete profitably with European peers, and is totally screwing the country's balance of payments. There is insufficient gas imported to meet current Moroccan power generation, let alone planned future requirements.
"Investors here would be well advised to observe the bigger strategic picture and develop independence of mind."
Indeed.
Between - Paul Griffiths. Lonny Baumgardner. Moyra Scott. Carl Kindinger. Nigel Haemoglobin. SYD197. Chesh. Graham Harrison. Cube. Porters. Me. Welloilbeefhooked. Trifle. Eurochamp.
Answer: AntiVenom has made unpleasant remarks about all these people and/or their views in just the last month.
@SamL. If I was in Paul's position, I would be trying to exit managerial responsibility for Morocco at the optimum price. I believe, to be confirmed shortly, that there is already a very large volume of gas discovered at Guercif, with plenty more to come, plus a very good chance of substantial quantities of oil and/or condensates. This volume is far greater than can be handled by a 3-person team - substantial managerial & financial resources will be required to realise a full field development programme, beyond the capabilities of PRD in its current form.
Paul has stated on several occasions that the easiest way to do this, from a regulatory & tax view, is to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM (Predator Gas Ventures Morocco, the wholly-owned local PRD subsidiary). Obviously ONHYM will want a say in the potential purchaser - many of us had good reason to believe that NewMed Resources of Israel was involved, but this is now looking very unlikely - the $2Bn purchase of 50% of NewMed by BP & ADNOC is unlikely to go ahead, so they don't have the funds for PRD, and the current political situation makes it almost impossible for an Israeli company to purchase a Moroccan asset.
I expect the best price will be achieved by 1/. demonstrating that substantial cash flows can be generated by a CNG operation (note - it may not be necessary to actually have this up & running), 2/. proving up gas volumes for the MOU-Fan, Middle Sands, and the MOU-NE/Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonates.
The last RNS suggested that cash flow from T & T would be applied to financing MOU-3 Twin & MOU-NE drilling, which means H2 2024. Depending upon how the CNG operation is actually financed, funds for drilling may be available earlier. Whatever, drilling results and CNG operation viability should be finalised by Q3 2024, so I would expect a sale of all or most of PGVM in Q3/Q4, my money is still on ADNOC. An earlier sale would be possible if Jurassic / Triassic was excluded, or if a reasonable stake in PGVM was retained by PRD in order to benefit from the upside of future discoveries. Paul has always been concerned that release of flow testing / volumetric data would make PRD a target for an opportunistic hostile bid, hence the wish to get at least one commercial agreement in place to use as an independent indication of value should a defence be necessary.
As usual, just my current thoughts - as we have seen, things can change rapidly 😏
@SamL. If I was in Paul's position, I would be trying to exit managerial responsibility for Morocco at the optimum price. I believe, to be confirmed shortly, that there is already a very large volume of gas discovered at Guercif, with plenty more to come, plus a very good chance of substantial quantities of oil and/or condensates. This volume is far greater than can be handled by a 3-person team - substantial managerial & financial resources will be required to realise a full field development programme, beyond the capabilities of PRD in its current form.
Paul has stated on several occasions that the easiest way to do this, from a regulatory & tax view, is to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM (Predator Gas Ventures Morocco, the wholly-owned local PRD subsidiary). Obviously ONHYM will want a say in the potential purchaser - many of us had good reason to believe that NewMed Resources of Israel was involved, but this is now looking very unlikely - the $2Bn purchase of 50% of NewMed by BP & ADNOC is unlikely to go ahead, so they don't have the funds for PRD, and the current political situation makes it almost impossible for an Israeli company to purchase a Moroccan asset.
I expect the best price will be achieved by 1/. demonstrating that substantial cash flows can be generated by a CNG operation (note - it may not be necessary to actually have this up & running), 2/. proving up gas volumes for the MOU-Fan, Middle Sands, and the MOU-NE/Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonates.
The last RNS suggested that cash flow from T & T would be applied to financing MOU-3 Twin & MOU-NE drilling, which means H2 2024. Depending upon how the CNG operation is actually financed, funds for drilling may be available earlier. Whatever, drilling results and CNG operation viability should be finalised by Q3 2024, so I would expect a sale of all or most of PGVM in Q3/Q4, my money is still on ADNOC. An earlier sale would be possible if Jurassic / Triassic was excluded, or if a reasonable stake in PGVM was retained by PRD in order to benefit from the upside of future discoveries. Paul has always been concerned that release of flow testing / volumetric data would make PRD a target for an opportunistic hostile bid, hence the wish to get at least one commercial agreement in place to use as an independent indication of value should a defence be necessary.
As usual, just my current thoughts - as we have seen, things can change rapidly 😏
@SamL. If I was in Paul's position, I would be trying to exit managerial responsibility for Morocco at the optimum price. I believe, to be confirmed shortly, that there is already a very large volume of gas discovered at Guercif, with plenty more to come, plus a very good chance of substantial quantities of oil and/or condensates. This volume is far greater than can be handled by a 3-person team - substantial managerial & financial resources will be required to realise a full field development programme, beyond the capabilities of PRD in its current form.
Paul has stated on several occasions that the easiest way to do this, from a regulatory & tax view, is to sell all or a majority stake in PGVM (Predator Gas Ventures Morocco, the wholly-owned local PRD subsidiary). Obviously ONHYM will want a say in the potential purchaser - many of us had good reason to believe that NewMed Resources of Israel was involved, but this is now looking very unlikely - the $2Bn purchase of 50% of NewMed by BP & ADNOC is unlikely to go ahead, so they don't have the funds for PRD, and the current political situation makes it almost impossible for an Israeli company to purchase a Moroccan asset.
I expect the best price will be achieved by 1/. demonstrating that substantial cash flows can be generated by a CNG operation (note - it may not be necessary to actually have this up & running), 2/. proving up gas volumes for the MOU-Fan, Middle Sands, and the MOU-NE/Titanosaurus Jurassic carbonates.
The last RNS suggested that cash flow from T & T would be applied to financing MOU-3 Twin & MOU-NE drilling, which means H2 2024. Depending upon how the CNG operation is actually financed, funds for drilling may be available earlier. Whatever, drilling results and CNG operation viability should be finalised by Q3 2024, so I would expect a sale of all or most of PGVM in Q3/Q4, my money is still on ADNOC. An earlier sale would be possible if Jurassic / Triassic was excluded, or if a reasonable stake in PGVM was retained by PRD in order to benefit from the upside of future discoveries. Paul has always been concerned that release of flow testing / volumetric data would make PRD a target for an opportunistic hostile bid, hence the wish to get at least one commercial agreement in place to use as an independent indication of value should a defence be necessary.
As usual, just my current thoughts - as we have seen, things can change rapidly 😏
Oh dear, Nigel. Have you not heard the expression 'when you are already in a hole, don't dig yourself deeper'. Rather than calling other posters playground names, try doing some simple research. fyi, I had to study chemistry at university level in order to obtain a degree in geology, so already knew that propane has a higher calorific content than methane, making it potentially more explosive.
1. Flogas (UK) already supply CNG tor industrial customers, and happily ship large tankers of it round the country without military escort. They also supply CNG as well as LPG for industry AND private domestic gas-powered vehicles, used right now on British roads. Their data sheets indicate the same transport safety labelling.
2. Take a look at this from the National Association of Fire Investigators:
https://www.nafi.org/blog/explosion-severity-propane-versus-natural-gas/#:~:text=Although%20the%20maximum%20laminar%20burning,conditions%20with%20a%20perfectly%2Dmixed
"propane explosions have been shown to produce higher overpressures in unconfined explosion tests when compared to methane. In vapor cloud explosion modelling, methane is considered to be a “low” reactivity fuel, while propane is listed as a “medium” reactivity fuel."
"In closed vessel explosion testing, the maximum rate of pressure rise for propane is almost twice than that for methane."
3. You continue to post unsubstantiated drivel, I really can't be bothered to engage with you anymore.
Nigel, please do us all a favour and make yourself useful. You can use this contact form: https://www.maroc.ma/en/node/806
to get in touch with the Prime Minister of Morocco. Could you ask him if he is aware that the company he owns is planning to move CNG tanker trucks around the country, in addition to the 1400 other gas delivery trucks they already have in operation. Point out that you consider this is a security risk, and ask if these trucks would be operating illegally, and how he proposes to protect the good citizens of Morocco from accidental or deliberate combustion.
Thank you, Keith.
I don't give investment advice. 01 Dec 2023 04:22 "My conclusions are for my own information, but I will also post them here for your interest or mockery".
Here's some general, non-investment advice, though. Take a look at the Russian army - all they do is repeat the same useless and obvious tactics over and over again, never achieving anything worthwhile, their losses building up, while the whole world laughs at and despises them. My cat can see through the poor-quality FUD this sad little bunch are trying to spread, so why waste so much of your time making fools of yourselves for just for the faint hope of picking up some loose change?
Do you really think a company with the financial leverage, technical expertise and in-country clout of Afriquia Gaz would be in public discussions with PRD unless they were completely satisfied that very substantial assets were available for commercialisation? Why do you think so many people with substantial relevant industry experience, who use this bulletin board, have seven- or eight-figure shareholdings maintained over several years, which they have no intention of selling any time soon?
@WB again, same post, "rampers are those who constantly lie and pump to get a few points on a daily basis, and fleece the honest souls here - of there are any left.(sic) This is the most cynical bulletin board I am proud to have read without posting too often." 1). I see plenty of genuine investors here, I don't see any of your rampers. 2). I agree this is the most cynical bulletin board - you and your friends are the problem. 3). imho you post far too often.
At least Nigel put a smile on our faces with his creative invention of an Algerian invasion, inadequacy of Guercif City Fire Dept., unidirectional pipelines, disbelief in the existence of water tankers, and even terrorist abduction of CNG trucks...or was that alien abduction?
My reading is that a second deal cannot be finalised until the Afriqui Gaz MOU is converted into a final contract. I thought it interesting that there is a 50 mmcfgd cap for Afriqui - this is presumably an ONHYM requirement to ensure that indigenous gas is available to other Moroccan customers as well. Very significant, since it is a clear indication that ONHYM believe that more than 50 mmcfgd can be produced from Guercif - and, unlike us, they have access to all the available data.