Member Info for kdogg20

Good luck with the business MRRALF :)

GordonGekko - I'm not baiting here, genuine question.

If you think the market has overreacted, how do you justify the company currently being worth £119m? Or in your eyes, presumably more?

Seeing a lot of comments about what will be released next week. As a LONG suffering holder beat down over the years by lack of comms maybe I'm a bit pessimistic but I'm not expecting much we don't already know.
- Confirmation company bid for CUDA but no inclination whether we have it.
- Similar BOPD to previous month as needs the pipeline to sort the pressure issues.
- Reiteration pipeline won't go in until CUDA sorted.
- Analysis of the 'discovery' is ongoing.

Potentially we may even see a drop in SP as the financials won't be looking great with the interest payments kicking in on the loan against a hedged income on most of our net oil.

People are getting ahead of themselves with the discovery imo - the lack of significant SP movement since its announcement is telling. I just want us to get CUDA for a good price and start ramping up production ASAP - I'm getting tired of waiting now, patience really starting to wear thin...

I really can't get my head around why people would be happy if we haven't got CUDA.

The reason our SP is so low is because we are not currently pulling enough oil out of the ground. Getting CUDA's WI% (obviously for the right sum) is money in our pocket RIGHT NOW which will enable us to show we can pay our monthly debts and turn a profit on a monthly basis. We are led to believe that COPL already have the expertise to maximise the flow rate so no requirement for help in this regard from a major.

IF the new find is rubber stamped and IF it flows at the numbers speculated then the majors will be sniffing round anyway. IF for whatever reason its a non-starter then we can fall back on a healthy WI for what we already have and operate as a profitable company.

To not pursue CUDA's WI is akin to putting all our eggs in one basket. When it comes to drilling for oil, nothing is certain - if it was then our SP would have already rocketed on what has been communicated by AM. I'd much rather than a larger slice of oil that's already being produced rather than oil we 'might' be able to make money on.

'BFU production will not increase until gas pipeline installed'

Well the video graphic on COPL's own website tells me it should be producing 4500 right now.

It's these kind of inconsistencies that are really harming the company imo...

Whilst I understand the obvious market positives of rising oil prices - aren't we hedged at a measly $56 per barrel for the full calendar year of 2022?

Any idea if we'll be hedged at that for the CUDA WI (if we were to get that) or if that hedge would affect any 'new' oil?

A year can be a long time in the commodities markets. I really hope we don't miss out on high WTI value because of this pathetic hedge.

Apologies for the negative post, very frustrated LTH here.

I agree with this Noob - it is a concern. Its another unknown at a time with plenty of other unknowns which the market never likes.

I also have a concern about the current recovery rate as this needs to increase ASAP otherwise we're losing money on a monthly basis.

With that said, the man who will know more than any of us - Arthur Millholland - bought a boat load of shares a week ago so I think we can be confident the outcome of both concerns will be positive.

I see a lot of talk on here about MM games, shorters & manipulation and how its a combination of the 3 that we have such a poor SP.

The fact is that as things stand RIGHT NOW, we are a loss making company. Come March time, we need to be pulling 1800-2000 bopd NET out of the ground just to break even and the simple fact of the matter is that we have not done that consistently since we took control of Atomic.

Don't get me wrong, I'm delighted with the recent find and expect the CPR to back it up which will obviously have a positive effect on the company. However, I'm praying that we get CUDA on the cheap and ramp up production ASAP as we really need to be a sustaining & profitable company by the end of Q2.

Whatever happens with our recent discovery (please Art, don't try to go this alone - I can't take another 5 years of COPL heartache!), we'll be in a much better bargaining/financing position if we have a significantly higher SP than the currently dreadful 30p and the best way to achieve this is to improve our current output ASAP!

Hi all. I have a question about the CUDA bidding process - hoping someone might know the answer.

A week on Friday the bids are due. Will we know at this point who has bid and how much the bids are for? Or will that information only come to light once the creditors have decided who gets the gig?

As a LTH, I'm obviously delighted by the RNS.

There's a lot of big numbers in there which are great but I just hope we don't spread ourselves too thin and get too carried away in the short term.

We desperately need to sort the CUDA situation but mainly we need to get our CURRENT monthly BOPD in check and consistent. Looking TOO far into the future is going to cost us money we don't currently have. To raise now can not happen - we need to be raising the funds for future drilling through increasing the output from wells we already have.

I think a lot of the downward market pressure relates to the concerns around immediate costs & our ability to shoulder them.

- It would appear a lot of work is going on at the coal face to upgrade machinery (Long term - Great! but how much is it costing right now?)
- How much oil have we ACTUALLY been getting out the ground to pay for ongoing costs?
- How much are we spending on new leases (is this really necessary right now??)?
- Are we going to be able to afford CUDA/how much is it going to cost?
- Are we going to be able to handle our loan repayments which kick in come March?

Of course if the answers are negative to any of the questions then its a huge concern as to raise further funds from this level or to take on more debt is big no no.

I'm not deramping as I'm heavily invested here. I believe we are so close to being a $500m-$1bn company but this is SUCH a critical time and the dots have to be navigated and joined correctly. I just pray Mr Millholland is going to deliver what us LTH's have been waiting a long time for.

I’m confused how Baron Flats can be ‘exceeding expectations’ if they’re still having issues with the pressure?
The only barometer we have for expectations are the BOPD graphs but surely we aren’t above our forecast amount if there’s still a pressure issue to rectify?

How much are we expecting the legals with CUDA and the boots on the ground work to slow down/stop over Xmas?

Such a critical time for the company and surely we need to do everything in our power to keep things progressing on both fronts?

When is this actually going to list - any ideas???

Noob - I sincerely hope you are wrong saying you think the CUDA situation could roll on into Q2 / Q3 next year. This needs sorting before MARCH (before we have to start paying back the loan).

The SP will only be going one way if come March our net BOPD is not firmly and consistently above 2500. We need to be around 2000 bopd (NET) just to break even post March. (I had it around 2200 net using similar math to Tilburn who on 06/12/21 posted he believed we needed 2000 so its around that ballpark).

With that said , this is far from a deramp as we are lead to believe that the wells are responding well & together with CUDA's WI its not crazy to think we could be raking in 5000-6000 (net) Q2 next year. I do believe we need to have our hands on CUDA's WI prior to March to help with the additional costs though.

This is really on a knife edge now and I am praying that Art finally delivers some shareholder value to this company...

Scenario 1 - CUDA done deal (at a good price), Nigeria actually happening, wells reacting well to gas injection, discovery well salvaged with recoverable oil at a good rate.

Scenario 2 - CUDA deal falls through (or purchased for too much), Nigeria extended, gas injection levelling off, discovery well plugged & abandoned.

The next 2-3 months will make or break this company.

I'm invested heavily here - at a much higher SP than this but I'm now getting seriously worried about how low we've dropped & the resistance in bouncing back up.

I totally get that there is a lot of 'potential' here (which is why I invested) but I'm now getting concerned about the costs of the drilling we're doing & the costs of potentially buying out CUDA (as well as how long it could take for that situation to play out). I know we have the already agreed £20m drawdown facility but is this going to be enough?

Dilution from this level is not an option but at the same time we need to make sure we've got enough £ coming in monthly to service any debts we accrue.

Can anyone put my mind at ease?

Apologies if this has been a regular topic of discussion but I've not been on the board for a while.

I can't see a joint venture partner announced in any of the recent RNS's . Have I missed something or are 88e planning on going it alone this time around? Surely it would have been announced by now if there were to be a JV...

Been some cracking posts on here the last few days, keep it up guys. Couple of questions I'm hoping someone might know the answer to:
1) What sort of time duration are people expecting it to be until the Cuda situation is resolved?
2) What is happening to Cuda's WI and their share of the production costs in the meantime?

Rabito - I thought DW doubled his holding after he departed as the MD. Is this not the case?