Member Info for kdogg20

Cannot believe we haven't secured some re-financing. $400k a year Ryan Gaffney gets & all he's delivered is bad deal after bad deal for us shareholders. We've been led to believe we've had lenders knocking on our door to offer us an RBL and in the last interview we'd decided to focus on 1 out of the 3 banks that had approached - what happened to that?!?!?

The RBL is so key here as its the current financial instruments that are holding us back - this would retire these instruments & let us fly.

The rest of the update is very good - excited about Cole Creek & the better understanding the company now has of the Shannon field. Art is right that any increase in BOPD will take time but IF the company are correct with their new thinking this should be great for us.

To compare ourselves with BOIl & 88E (historically) -

It illustrates very well how draining our financial arrangements are. The above companies have had many runs on only a sniff of oil because they're not held back by expensive debt & warrants. Here we are actually delivering oil to market & with a nice find under our ground yet we can't catch a break with the SP.

Obviously we wouldn't have been able to get to where we are WITHOUT taking on debt but please don't buy from Art that they're all genius' for what they've arranged. The current financial instruments in play are what is holding this back - RBL asap please....

There's a constant clash on this board between the optimists & the pessimists.

The optimists focus on long term prospects - the field, the infrastructure, Wyoming, the find, the oil price etc.

The pessimists worry about the short term - monthly cash burn, poor financial terms, warrants, missed deadlines, low BOPD.

I've been here for 5 years & have bought more & averaged down along the way because of what the optimists are excited about - someone is going to make serious money out of this ground & I'd like to think it'll be us.

The real issue here though & the reason for the appalling SP is exactly what the pessimists are worried about. Lets drop this talk of market manipulation & shorters etc. The fact is IF we continue on THE CURRENT financial terms pulling the bopd we CURRENTLY are then we are in serious bother. This is the fundamental reason for the downward trajectory.

This is why the RBL is so key. It will unlock exactly what the optimists are excited about. I really hope Art is playing a game to get the best RBL terms possible - to not get it after everything he's said & all the warrant ramifications & penalties it would bring should at the very least result in the resignation of our CFO & some serious fronting up by Arthur about what has occurred.

I was extremely dubious of the JV initially. I thought it was Art's way of potentially glossing over missing out on an RBL (sorry about that - but look at THIS!). Watching the interview back though, he's not that good of an actor for it to not be potentially happening. He'll know he needs to make hay whilst the oil price is high & it's just too much for us to do at current mcap. Whilst I don't trust our CFO, I respect Art as a deal maker for any JV & think if (when) one is announced we'll come out of it very well.

RBL sorted this week please COPL - no excuses - I don't want to think where we'll be if one doesn't come.

The comms have gone from RBL to RBL/Senior Loan.

Things like this are never done by accident by AM.

I knew the writing was on the wall & we wouldn’t be drilling this year as soon as he mentioned about the casing & tubing being more difficult to locate than expected. That’s how he works - mention a slight negative/doubt & it usually ends up playing out.

Unfortunately, I’m reading the shift in finance wording to mean we won’t be getting the RBL & the out of the blue mention of a JV is an attempt to soften the blow.

I asked a couple of questions which were ignored:
- Why has Art changed his mind about a JV.
- If we are to JV, what is the money raised on 19th April for 'drilling activities' going to be used for.
- Why has it not been RNS'd that we are not drilling this year (its been the plan since January) & how does it affect the license as I thought we HAD to drill at least twice to meet license requirements.
- As the 24p warrants are due to expire in 2 weeks - will he instead cash raise if this SP is not reached (a cynic might conclude all this JV talk is a push to reach said SP).
- Can Art justify Ryan's $400k salary and tell us how he's benefited the company.

Some defo good news regarding the flaring, de-waxing & seemingly short term confidence that production will be increasing.

I totally understand the buzz created by the potential JV but a concern for me is that we were supposed to be drilling these wells ourselves - what has changed?!? Art was dead against a JV saying it was more dillutive than fund raising.

Once again, my COPL LTH pessimism is coming to the fore & telling me this is just a creative way of communicating there'll be no drilling this year which goes against what we've been told.

The meeting will be a general discussion relating Natural Resources and their role in a modern world. Can't see there being any specifics about COPL, ANGS & LUR - its not an investor presentation.

5 year LTH holder here. Maybe my frustration and the big red number next to my COPL shares is influencing my pessimistic viewpoint but my expectation for the next couple of weeks is:

- SLIGHT BOPD increase to a still unprofitable 1600 gross (nowhere near where we should be or what we were promised - I love how Art always fails to mention our appalling recovery numbers are squarely down to our highly paid 'expert team' pumping the wells too full of gas too quickly).

- RBL announced (about time & undoubtedly good news). I fear it'll come with a load of warrants that hold the SP back though and won't be the amount of money we need to pay off current debt facilities, install gas recovery system and drill. (How will we then raise further money? Hmm).

- Speaking of drilling, I can see the RBL RNS including a line buried in there about drilling being pushed back until next year. The silence around drilling plans is deafening. AM's shift on drilling as the year has progressed has been annoying - start of year the rig was sorted, then it wasn't - but he had one in mind, then there was a shortage of tubing/casing but he was pretty sure it'd be okay. All nicely setting us up for a delay in my opinion.

One more vent - salaries. How is our CFO on $400k a year?! Ryan Gaffney has been a disaster - bad deal after bad deal. It's literally his only job!

Sorry to vent but I'm incredibly frustrated with this stock. If the asset is as good as we were lead to believe we should have meeting up for the £1 party 9 months ago.

I sincerely hope I'm proved wrong. In theory, the next glut of news should be the springboard this company needs. Let's hope Art is reading this with a big smile that he's about to put me in my place but history tells me any 1 step forward is usually followed by 2 back.

Carrying on where CHAL left off...

Great post 3littlepigs - your history and thoughts relating to this share is a near carbon copy of my own.

Here's hoping...

"I can say to counter your unsourced statements that the gas gather kit is being installed already and will be in place by August - production will immediately go to 3000 bopd within two weeks"

Wow wow wow - that is some claim, Tiburn. I pray that you are correct. That would be transformational.

For me the reason for this pathetic SP is no secret & has been talked about a million times on here. It's all about upping the production & sorting the finance and until both are realised we aren't moving anywhere.

Art sounds super confident on both but the fact of the matter is production has been flat with targets missed.

Finance is a big concern. I was in SXX which collapsed after being unable to refinance, despite the BOD saying it was a forgone conclusion. When companies collapse - 99% of the time its because of unmanageable debt.

This is a risky investment as there's a lot of unknowns. Will the refinance come off? Will production start to increase? Will Frontier drill okay? Will Frontier flow okay? Will the oil price remain high whilst all this is played out?

Tilburn has posted the logical next steps for the company on a number of occasions & it's hoped the company do start to tick off each one as the SP should tick up each time.

In my mind I've got this at 55-45 to pan out well for us over the next 18 months and if it does the gains will be 4x / 5x from here which is why I'm staying in. To be fair though, after being in for 3-4 years & way underwater - I haven't got much choice.

All IMO of course....

HH1983 - Regarding your 2nd paragraph about securing finance once the production is (hopefully) increased substantially cum Autumn. This was also what I had in mind so was surprised to see in the latest presentation that the target for re-financing is 'Early Q2' - which is errrr NOW.

I don't think this is the sort of thing where Art has plucked a date out of thin air. The presentation was brought out 'Early Q2' so he must surely have something in place WITHOUT the need of proving up the FED. My guess is the refinancing must have been secured against the now increased WI we have after securing CUDA. I'm fully expecting the refinance to kick in once the CUDA deal is rubber-stamped by the US court.

That is of course if the 'Early Q2' line in the presentation is to be believed.....

Stas-
I would love Art to be asked about his repeated claim that the wells are ‘responding better than expected to MF’ and what this actually means when the only barometer we & the market actually care about is this resulting in an increased BOPD - which it has not.

Would also like Art pushed for what fundamentally changed from Sept/Oct last year when the claim of ‘5000 BOPD’ by Xmas was on the website & now even with spending a s**t load on modifications we are only projected to be around 4000 BOPD.

Quite ironic that I'd love to fly over for the AGM but I can't really afford it as I'm so far under water because of this SP....

Good interview from Art. The future of the company certainly seems a positive one IF (!!) the financing is sorted out.

I do however, have a big concern about how long its going to take to increase our monthly BOPD. I may be wrong here but I took from the interview that the pipeline isn't going in until August and will take upto 6 weeks to complete? The gas will then take time to do its thing (another 6-8 weeks???). Before you know it, its October/November and we're still only pulling enough oil out the ground to just about cover costs (now we have some unhedged WI%).

Not only will this be terrible for our balance sheet but you'd think it would have a detrimental effect on our ability to rearrange our finance?

Okay, that's it now - you've got the placing away & us LTH have seen our holdings taken yet another hit but this has to be the last one.

I want to see the £ used to get production up to the level WE WERE TOLD IT WOULD BE asap.

I don't want to see any rainbow chasing FED drills being funded by any other means other than cash generated by oil sales from said increased production levels.

I don't want to hear about any 'falling off chairs' nonsense unless its because the share price has gone from these Godforesaken levels to £1+.

Wow, I posted my concerns about funding this morning - did not expect it to be even worse than predicted.

Drilling of any frontier wells needs to be completely forgotten about (unless its a JV). How can Art mention about 16 wells planned when its obvious from our financials we can't afford it?!?!?!?

I'm praying we get CUDA for the cash they owe us plus a little bit of cash. Hope there's enough left to get the gas pipe sorted & production up ASAP!!

Totally understandable why investors have been spooked today. Art needs to come out with a realistic short term plan and appease us shareholders for once. The sell off will continue if not...

Pigs - Re the 2000 bopd on the 16 wells...I've been in this & other O & G shares long enough to take the 'discovery' with a HUGE pinch of salt. The market has told us what it thinks of the discovery (mcap barely rose above £50m) - it's not something that can be banked on & thus I would not expect funding to be secured against it for the initial drillings.

Our current producing assets need to be the short term primary focus...

An unsurprising update today imo - light on detail but many positive cryptic messages in there for the LTH who know about the company and its current situation.

I have a huge concern with regards to our current cash flow situation though. The mention of 16 (!!!) drills together with purchase of CUDA, the cost of the pipeline and the kicking in of the interest payments on our current loan just doesn't balance well against the meagre amount of oil we are currently pulling out the ground. I get the feeling AM is resistant to any sort of the JV which scares me even more.

Raising to fund any of the above activities from this god awful SP is going to be painful. I expect some re-financing to be announced when CUDA is a done deal but thats not going to be a magic wand that funds all the required activities. It's imperative we increase the current production ASAP (as in - by next month!) to give the company more options in terms of available cash & a bigger SP to raise from.

I'm praying as soon as CUDA is announced (?!) the gas pipe is ready to go . Hopefully AM took the gamble we would get CUDA and started the ball rolling with the pipe months ago knowing time was of the essence. The gas flooding takes a while to kick in & no doubt there will be initial issues to overcome. It simply cannot be allowed to drag on for months as our cash situation will become desperate very quickly if we are not increasing production very quickly.

With that said, if there are positive outcomes to the above then us shareholders should be very handsomely rewarded.

Such a pivotal few months for the company...