Member Info for kd24

i think it fair to say that this is one of the biggest reasons why the current sp is so baffling and frustrating. we know whats under the ground, we know it's size (but probably larger) and it's quality (among the best in the world) we know it's relatively easy to get to and we know with grim certainty given the global situation that this resource is going to be in huge demand. what was several years ago a "nice to have" resource is increasingly a critical one and given the price of tungsten (with no reason to expect any meaingful dip) the upside is huge and the cost of extraction and processing is even more financially viable. the days of wondering "if" redmoor will become operational, have, for me, long since passed and its a case of "when". and i get that investment is waiting for the plans to be costed confirmed and planning permission is a ***** in this country etc but that we haven't seen long term investor's move in and take the sp up is bizzarre.

Personally I think we've got four things going on

1. The curse of AIM, its all about the short term trade and if nothing significant is going to happen in the foreseeable then money moves out to find it's potential 2-5% growth elswehere

2. The news in the RNS shows that the company is not cash rich and income from elsehwhere is modest, perhaps causing some to doubt that the current team can move to production

3. The crown jewel, Redmoor, is still inferred and there is not path to production yet. That will be firmed up by the PFS, so until that is on the horizon then all the speculation over Euro stockpiling and grants and the current price of Tungsten is moot.

4. MMs are playing a medium-long term game as they have the cash to force a price fall and do an accretion of shares as the short-termers take profit on the recent rises.

As others have said the fundaments remain incredible and so we wait...

Like you Stevie I'm far from any kind of expert but IMO the response to the news thus far makes sense - albeit very frustratingly. LTH's like me have always had faith that what's under the ground is huge and valuable and it does have a nominal value but only with with loads of "ifs" and caveats; all of which must be dealt with timings and costings and mitigations within a provisional and feasible route to production. Until that's set out Redmoor remains either a speculative punt or, more probably, a dormant opportunity as far as the big investors are concerned. Leigh Creek sale(s) affects the balance sheet "now" and can potentially be earmarked for funding for Redmoor reducing the need for borrowing/share issue. Planning permission granted can/will give indications that the risk of one of the biggest potential obstacle in the route to production is reduced if it has local gov't/resident support, a very good sign.

All these things factored into a cogent and costed PFS, ideally with planning permission issues flagged and addressed (to some extent) and it'll fly. I just wish we had some indicator of timings - like I've said before some of us have retirements to sort out!!

I think It's like I've said a couple of times, we've got long term holders like me who aren't tempted to sell and nothing at the moment to tempt in more and new investors at any kind of scale that'll positively impact the SP. Despite all the upside and the scale of the inferrred minerals etc what the market is waiting for is a clear signal of how and when all this stuff is gonna get extracted. When that appears in the PFS it's gonna be a stampede I'm sure. Personlly, and this is based on nothing but confidence in the management, given the signs we've seen the speed of the intial infill results and news that that's being expanded with new rigs booked etc, I'd like to think that we'll see the PFS before year end, anything earlier is a bonus.

As pointed out though Chinese Tungsten is low grade and not suitable for defence applications I understand

Considering Zeus minimum FV is based on Tungsten price of $800 - then a minimum $2000 would take their estimate up to close if not past 20p and it'd stil be a steal...

I'll bet they're already had conversations at the most surface with some companies - they mentioned after the MRE and investor presentation/meeting how much interest had been generated and they'd had calls from overseas as well.

I mean how can they not - the biggest, highest quality Tungsten resource in the whole of Europe with global significance for an increasingly important main metal (plus others inc Silver), a hugely conservative "value" of $1.5 Billion and an estimated mine life of nearly 30 years .... given how the management team how demonstarted their ambition and effectiveness since taking over and are seemingly committed to getting operational how we're still languishing at this level is hugely frustrating... but I need to follow my own advice, stay patient.

Yeah what we're all waiting for is the starting pistol for the next phase with the PFS - I know some on here have speculated about a buyout and while I would think that's a distint possibility long term, no point in anyone bidding while they are still exploring and expanding the size and make up of the tonnage of all the metals there. Once that's determined then a meaningful bid number can be worked out. Sure as eggs are eggs though it's gonna be multiples of the current SP - patience is required.

For me the Lassonde curve etc and everything going on with the SP should just be considered as game of chicken - the RNS is more fantastic news that shows the inferred resource is just getting bigger and bigger and that's all great and the reward for us LTHs will be even higher. The question is at what point does the money seriously move in and drive up the SP? For me that'll be when "something" happens to show that production is a just a question of when not if, costs are known and agreed upon and the route to production and profits is laid out. At the moment it's just froth and minor surges and falls based on short term pumps for a share that can easily be manipulated to regularly give 5-10% bursts.

Completely agree London - the fact is this is still just potential in the ground and therefore many have exited to use their cash elsewhere. Until there are meaningful signs or news that anything like a buyout or the PFS with solid indicators that production is going to happen, then as I said a while ago we'll just "pootle" along. LTH like me who bought in at sub 1p (some of mine are .23), are confident that the sheer scale of the opportunity is worth leaving our money here even for a couple of years as the upside will be better than cashing in and trying our luck elsewhere. It's massively frustrating that with a hugely conservative Fair Value of nearly 15p others haven't been willing to buy in and take it to that level - but that's what'll happen on the eve of the PFS so until then it's just a waiting game.

I'm increasingly resigned to us sitting around this mark until there is significant news of the PFS. That will/should give confidence that this is not just "stuff in the ground", (however much it's valued at, at whatever Tungsten price) and that it is ACTUALLY going to move to production - before then even news from the new drilling and new minerals won't make too much of a difference. Doesn't takeaway from the real value and this will be a beast but only when realising the potential and the money flowing comes into view.

Getting locals onside to this project is hugely important - you can satisfy the shareholders and the market and have all the advanced planning and production planned out but if local people come late to the party and are concerned about lorries on the road then it can be a really annoying blocker - getting ahead and getting them onside and making it clear you have plans for such things while also promoting jobs and income in a depressed area with a mine that now has a forecast life of 29 years is the kind of low effort but high reward activity that marks a competent and effective management. All power to them.

I say pootle along - I mean it won't surge meaningfully - as a v.LTH I am "happy" to wait just frustrated as the med-long term value is there for those with eyes to see

Yes the Fair Value from Zeus is based on a rerate from 4.9 to 14.9 based in the huge increase on the amount of Tunsgten and other minerals (to a limited extent) present and a Tungsten price of $850 plus other estimates of costing in production. As others have mentioned that the Tungsten price is 4 times that (and doesn't really show any reason to drop to the $850 price) makes their 14.9 the lowest fair value - they said that it could be as high as 43p if they'd used current prices etc - hence the frustration of many on here that the share price should reflect the FV quote at the very least. AIM though is a fickle place I've learned and until more solid plans come via the PFS etc and a production date is mooted then it'll pootle along..

Sorry - hadn't seen you'd posted about the new earier canillasboy.

We're expecting a RNS are we not .. wouldn't be at all surprised to see that shortly (ahem) and see a decent climb after that with goods news about Cobre and the sale in Oz... thought all along as others have said that this is a shake pre that.

Wouldn't be at all surprised to see some large buys come in before a Q1 update sends it back up sometime this week....

Agreed - the gov't can hardly be announcing any funding if SML haven't announced any costings and are not yet confirmed on a path to production. It's a waiting game now. Be great to get some news coming through but the next big step is that PFS which if we're lucky will be late in Q3 but probably Q4 I'd imagine.

Amen Slurm - remember the watch word "Astronomical"

Fully prepared for the wait for us to get to sensible numbers, at the least around the Zeus 14.9, just wish it'd get a move on as some of us have a retirement to sort out!!