Hi everyone! LVMH made a small part of my recent newsletter this week - and most definitely had an impact on Burberry shares!
LVMH (WTD +15.9%) / Luxury: Holds the second largest weighting in the Eurostoxx50. (1) Metrics: Earnings were strong across the board. (2) Guidance: “Chinese clientele remained good“. The Luxury sector significantly under-performed last year, amid continued weakness in Chinese demand. These results helped ease some of the concerns and pointed towards a recovery for the sector as a whole - as such (3) Barclays upgraded Luxury to Overweight. My thoughts? You might remember my past newsletters which mentioned Burberry (bad guidance) / Richemont (strong demand). Seemingly, the “larger“ Luxury names are faring best - Hermes and Kering are still due; it will be safe to assume they will largely reiterate trends mentioned by LVMH.
If you found some value from my piece, you can find more here: https://reallyknowthenews-newsletter.beehiiv.com/
Burberry (WTD -7.5%): British Luxury brand, Burberry, saw it shares plummet after it announced its Q3 earnings - which all in all, was not horrible. The real kicker for the name was that it cut its guidance, citing “a slowdown in Luxury demand”. What the experts are saying: Analysts are now looking towards Richemont earnings this Thursday, as any early indications to see if this is a company specific issue, or a wider slowdown throughout the Luxury sector. Personally, I do not see Richemont and Burberry as direct peers - but its important to know the talk on the street - so you are not caught by surprise if you hold any Luxury names.
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Hi everyone!
This is pasted from my newsletter, that I send out weekly! In this section I mentioned commentary from Next's CEO re. Red Sea tensions.
Maersk (WTD +16.5%) + Macro Themes: The shipping company announced on Friday 5th, that all vessels travelling through the Red Sea are to be diverted around Africa for the foreseeable future, in hopes to avoid Houthi militant attacks. Ramifications: Longer stock deliveries, higher prices - inflation? The Next CEO mentioned that should these reroutes persists, it will moderate sales growth. In the past week, freight rates have more doubled and will no doubt be reflected in consumer prices. This will be an important theme in the coming weeks and months ahead, and Maersk’s decisions re. the Red Sea will be closely watched by analysts - they are, of course, the world’s largest shipping company.
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Hi everyone! Happy new year!
Here's my brief summary of the recent movements in JD Sports that I put in my newsletter.
JD Sports (WTD -28.5%): The trendy UK fashion retailer saw its shares slump, after the company missed on its revenue expectations and lowered its profit guidance - blaming milder weather and “cautious spending”.
What the institutions are thinking? Peel Hunt noted that the significant drop represents “a good opportunity to buy a high-quality, growing market leader”, citing weakness over the Christmas period is transitory. The brokerage firm maintained its “buy“ rating (price target 250p; current 120p). Shore Capital, on the other hand, has put its “buy“ rating on review.
I have recently began a newsletter for my subscribers where I cover the main macro events that have/will effect the financial markets. I also mention large equity movers, and JD Sports made this edition. If you enjoyed what your read above/found it useful - consider subscribing! It's always high quality and market relevant!
I also mention the possible ramifications of Red Sea tensions in the newsletter, scheduled for Sunday!
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Thank you so much for such an excellent overview of my work. I will definitely be using your tips to improve any future work! :). And by no means am I offended by your criticism, because you didn't just stop at what I did wrong, you actually provided tips on how to fix them.
I agree the first section is a bit weak and most definitely could have delved deeper. And actually thinking back, the information/stats provided is not very useful without any benchmarks.
"convincing view point" - this is something I did not think of. I thought it was sufficient enough to write an overview report, but it makes the report more interesting if you have a rigid reason for the report.
Again thanks!
Hi everyone! I am a recent Economics graduate and have taken up an interest in writing stock analyst reports.
This report is a short overview of the recent events that have affected the company and some future outlooks of the company.
This is my first analyst report and would love any feedback on what you think I could improve on!
https://www.docdroid.net/gjhPyon/easyjet-investment-analysis-pdf
Hi all,
I know most of us have a long-term outlook on EZJ and travel stocks in general. I think most of us are also kind of surprised that travel stocks haven't rebounded as well as we hoped/thought.
Some possible reasons for this (travel as an industry):
1. Excess demand, yet due to extensive job cuts airlines are having problems accommodating for all customers.
- long-term this issue can be resolved as airlines continue to hire and train new employees.
- possible risks? Covid returning, causing airlines to cut jobs again and we are back to square one.
2. Jobs accommodating for hybrid work and/or less business trips
- not so relevant for EZJ ( i doubt many business-people are flying EasyJet for business trips)
"The latest survey of UNWTO global experts also shows 58 percent expect to see a rebound in the third quarter of 2022".
I think the quote above is what we are all thinking. The demand is there, just look at the photos of the mass lines in airports or use your own anecdotal evidence. It seems the experts believe that the airlines will soon be able to harbour the increased demand, and hopefully the travel stocks will rebound fairly soon.
On the technical side:
There is strong support @351p, being hit consistently since 2020. This can be traded up to the first line of support @373p (+7%), which has been hit again since 2020. More recently, the support line has been a bit higher @413p (+18%).
So if you're somebody who thinks there is still some bleeding for this company, I think a short-term trade like this may be beneficial. But along with the expert opinions from the UNWTO survey and excess demand, I think purchasing at this support level and $ cost-averaging in, could be a profitable play over the long term.
Could anybody explain an uncrossing trade.
It is my understanding that buyers and sellers have been matched on a total worth of £5m.
Why then is this displayed in red? Surely there should be an equal amount of a buy order displayed in the order book.
They usually update the market when there is a media appearance... so if it's true, it will get announced via RNS.
If memory serves me correctly, wasn’t the JORC update brought forward ahead of schedule?
Perhaps the board were overly ambitious to get it done early, so if it’s delayed back to February I have no real issue with that.
Gla.
Good update today by DP, and we should expect results prior to end of Jan 2021.
I think this may prevent the Christmas sell-off, as investors want to hold this stock now a date has been set in stone. Expecting some sideways trading, but IF there is some weakness I sure as hell will be buying.
A month's wait for a rise to ATLEAST the 1p range? Yes please.
GLA
Hi Leatal.
I made a Risk/Reward post a few weeks back, which could help you understand potential prices based on technical analysis.
You mentioned 2p, but I feel it would do you some good to have some other important price levels in your head, when the time comes to sell. Sometimes, its good to secure profits before the usual AIM sell-off.
I have no doubt we will all still make profits! GLA.
I have made my entries into this company using previous supports, to help limit risk. I expressed this in my own post, did you miss that?
Literally listen to any iconic investor, Warren Buffet, Bejamin Graham or Howard Marks to name a few, and they will tell you the main rule of investing is limiting risk.
If you "invest" by placing "bets" then be my guest, I for one, will not be engaging in such outrageous methods.
Thank you.
Starting to build a small position in ROCK at this level.
05/11 RNS confirms we have found high grade gold in the Plateau, I think we were due a rise there but due to institutional selling we fell.
The selling has stopped and we hovered around 0.83 until gold prices began to sink, and we soon followed and now hover around 0.75.
In terms of Risk/Reward :
Worst Case : We sink all the way back down to March lows (0.46p), and rise with momentum and results to previous resistance 1p. Even at this level (0.74) the risk/reward is a ratio of 1.17.
Mid Case: It is unlikely we fall to March lows, and so if we do continue falling...we will meet our old support of 0.64p. Again, assuming we simply re-rate back to 1p, our risk/reward ratio is 3.61.
Best Case: We hover at this level, sentiment returns and we re-rate straight back to old support of 1p. We have seen this occur twice in the past 3 months. R/R ratio: approx. 8
Important upside levels for a positive result:
1p-1.15p - This resistance always gets tested on positive results. In recent times, these levels acted as support so will likely get tested as we move up.
1.35p - Resistance as of Jan 2020, Oct 2020
1.95p - Resistance as of July 2018, Nov 2019 and July 2020.
My next buy level will be around 0.65p, but I'm not sure it will go that low. The upside is very high for this company, and that is just in regards with the previous levels. Who knows... maybe DP has a surprise in for us :)
Hopefully we get updates ahead of Christmas.
DYOR and GLA
Hi all, I've been following ROCK for a while after selling back in Jan.
The RNS on 05/11 looked very good and DP is generally quite transparent on future results.
Is this recent drop a direct result of a Spreadex reducing its holding? Or am I wildly over-estimating this recent drilling result?