Moon, so what is the fair price today and why?
I agree re the news on CEO comp. the key was chairman’s comment “During this exiting time” without this remark we could enterpret the change in CEO’s comp as black and white: deal is imminent, or we are running out of cash and no deal is coming - to cut comp is the only way to reduce the strain on cash flow.
Plus your fell for the COS. We all want to earn few bobs here plus enjoy financial entertainment, which includes the challenge opinions not just satisfy confirmation bias
Kev, exactly. 1p could be a poor value if prob. Of the deal is 1%, and 10p could be a fantastic opportunity if the probability is 50%. May RNS and recent one has moved the probability of the deal to well above 1% but is 50%? My poll suggest that some of us think on average that it is 73%
Not really. It depends where the SP will be after the deal is announced. You have to have a SP target for the best case - commercial oil is discovered (min 8bn boo). The probability of it according to Moyes is up to 35%, so if oil is there then we should get it at least on the third drill. So multiply your taget SP by 35% and 0x65% (if no oil the share is worthless). Say at 8bn boo the share worth £5 times 35% = £1.75, soil the SP jumps to 50p after the deal is announced think is it worth 3x to wait for three drills?
Like all my n that s chat - waiting for the oil to be discovered - no rush to sell.
Confirmation bias is the enemy of investing... one should alsways consider where she/he could be wrong
VCB If you read my posts you will clearly see that I steer the hats towards fundamen5al analysis and probabilities weighted outcomes and I am questioning people’s claims which are not substantiated by facts. My contribution was so far - scenario analysts and valuation of the share based on data provided by BPC. E..g I have explained how we may get to £1.34 and what are 5he down side risks to this SP target. Also I engaged chat participants to estimate their probabilities and timings of the deal with major - to gage where is consensus vs SP.
Interestking, would be great if instead of showing how desperate you are, better tell us how are you getting to multiples of £ in coming months/years. Any math would be appreciated
Whishfull thinking, back to below 6p is likely in the absence of +ve news
At what prices are happy to sell our shares to major in case of 1. Before the oil is discovered (moye’s report puts 25-35% chance of success) 2. After the oil is dicivered
Moye puts 15-30% chance of commercial oil - the risk of over 70% that the stock worth 0
Well “Moyes independently calculated the probability of success ("PoS") factors for each of the stacked reservoirs assessed in their technical audit, the majority of which were calculated in the 25% - 35% range, though a few are risked at 12% - 15%. BPC believes that these PoS figures would be considered globally competitive when compared to other similar uncalibrated, frontier basins.” 25-35% is not zero but is not over 50% either. Also on top of it apply the 20-40% recovery rate.
VCB2, please get better and I wish you a rapid recovery - you need to be in a great shape for the party after the share hits jackpot.
VCB2 do you mind to provide the facts to support your claim “THE OIL IS THERE”
Active asset management is zero some game: you benefited from the riseinthe share price because someone gave up this opportunity. I would like to be a winner gaining the edge -more acuratly forecast the future and estimates of the probabilities of outcomes. Share price is the probability weighted outcomes of the scenarios the marginal investors have while buying or selling shares
Given in the info that has accumulated for the past decades and recent months,what is the probability of the discovery of commercially viable oil in the amount of atleast 1.6bn barrels?
Agree. But I thing the main question is what is the probability that there is actually commercially viable oil at least at the lower bound of the Moye’s range ie 1.6nn boo? And does the current 6p correctly discounts it? If on average we believe that the deal is imminent with 73% probability by the chance of finding the oil is 10% than the price is way too high.
Private_Investor, could you do lease elaborate your line of though linking quantum superposition with the outcome of the deal (profit share in the project, and bringing closer the cash flow if oil is discovered)?
1. Within 1 months
2. 70% (up from 60% on the back of the latest RNS)