RE: Tennyson 16p target13 May 2021 19:10
Dividend update: In March, i3 announced that it had allocated C$2m (c.£1.16m, or c.0.16p/shr) in relation to its maiden dividend payout. The company had committed to announcing a special dividend in Q1, before moving to a regular biannual policy, to be announced with the interim results in September. This regular dividend will be set at up to 30% of free cash flow, implying a payout of up to c.US$3.3m (0.34p/shr) with respect to H1 operations (paid in H2), and implying a 7.7% running yield going forwards.
Payment of the initial dividend has been delayed somewhat due to the requirement of balance sheet restructuring to create distributable reserves. This administrative process requires formal judicial and shareholder approval, and a court date and EGM are expected to be announced imminently, in time for payment most likely early next month. The dividend in relation to H1 2021 activities will be announced and paid in H2.
Financial forecasts and valuation: Based on an average Brent oil price of US$60/bbl and Henry Hub gas price of US$2.75/mcf, we forecast 2021 EBITDA of US$22.4m, pricing the company on an EV/EBITDA multiple of just under 5x. In line with the company’s stipulated policy of 30% of free cash flow to be returned to shareholders, we expect c.US$3.3m to be paid out in relation to H1 2021, equivalent to c.0.34p/shr and placing the company on a healthy running yield of 7.7%. On DCF, we value i3 at a Core (2P) NAV of 16.4p/shr (NPV10), at which we set our target price.
Inorganic growth opportunities: With the two acquisitions successfully bedded-in, i3 is now actively scoping fresh opportunities for growth alongside its organic growth strategy in the Clearwater play. We estimate that the company started the year with around US$8.5m of cash, and forecast a further c.US$9m of FY21 free cash flow (net of dividends) which can be used for acquisitions. With net debt/EBITDA at a forecasted 1.1x (FYE21), there is also the potential to use debt finance for new transactions, providing options other than just new equity to finance larger deals. Any transaction priced below 5x EBITDA will be incrementally accretive to cash flow and dividend yield per share (assuming like-for-like funding structure), illustrating the growth potential through M&A.
We initiate coverage on i3 with a DCF-derived (2P NAV, NPV10) target price of 16p/shr. Note that this does not include any value for the Serenity discovery in the North Sea, worth an additional 5p/shr risked on our numbers. Our target price currently offers some 93% upside, with additional upgrades likely in the event of success with the ongoing farm out process on Serenity, and further M&A activity in Canada. Accordingly, we carry a BUY recommendation.