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If R & M drop through 6% they would need to notify.

FIL, of course, notified in May that they were through 5% and so would be able to dispose of 12 million shares before the next notification is due.

Not particularly high volumes on this (or any other share by the looks of it).

That is not strictly fair to management.

They were presenting at one of those events (pre the "bad weather" episode in September 2018) and the strategy was quite clear. I was not a holder at the time, but did a quick post at the time on the strategy:

"There is a clear strategy, but it is not what many on here want to hear.

It was very briefly discussed over drinks by Bert, post the presentation (he did a good job on that).

Short term: address life of mine, to maximize the capital outlay,

Then the game is to buy distressed near-term projects with good returns: as they did with Yanfolila, rather than pie in the sky exploration.

Broken hill fits that category. As for saying they don't know anything about it, all they need to do (as for Yanfolila) is hire a competent outfit to deliver the build. Unless management are mining engineers, then turnkey is the only way to go.

It was not possible to develop a sensible conversation, as Bert was clearly sensitive to the negativity and regrettably, the group was dominated by individuals who wanted to speak rather than listen and consider"

I am not currently a holder, but after meeting management, Hum has moved up the watch list."

It was , IMO, a good strategy, but has been put on hold for obvious reasons ie they have concentrated time and cash on sorting Yanfolila. and maximizing short term returns.

This is an out of favor sector and struggles to maintain even speculative equity interest, let alone debt finance.

Bank financing would be almost impossible and with high risk involved:personal guarantees that could be wipe out for Messrs. Clarke, Snow and Wardle, who have all stashed the cash from previous company sales (and that indicates their exit strategy). I doubt if they would have been able to renegotiate the company RBL facility, such is the change in sentiment since the last cycle of high POO.

Just looking at how hard it is in the oil space to raise finance, it is worth taking a look at the likes of i3E to see how difficult it is to get anything other than equity finance. Funding there (after a long time) is by an equity raise of £18 million plus £22 million junior loan notes: the sting is in the tail: warrants of an amount equal to the loan notes are being washed into the market and will protect risk on the loan notes. The prospects are good, with a 70% COS, but that is the market story.

AMER will finally morph into a debt free cash cow throwing off decent cash dividends or get bought out by one of the majors, expanding its Colombian operation, getting economies of scale and for whom access to funding is not an issue. My money is on the latter and it will come as a surprise if it is not OXY, with a size 12 boot already in the door.

Fevertree man

FYI part of the cash is restricted and the balance in no way equates to even the current market cap, let alone any form of premium to tempt the IIs or PIs to sell.

To put figures to your folly, at a small premium to current SP ( say at 15p per share) they would have to find £150 million out of their back pockets: this is NOT an AIM minnow to be sold for a few quid out of its own petty cash!

Well SOL has moved on from a squiggly line to pay zones of 26ft and 10ft respectively of light oil and that does help interpret the adjacent squiggly lines in the play as a whole.

Interestingly, it was JW who effectively said at the 2018 AGM that there was no substitute for drilling to gain information and was suggesting that they should just go ahead and drill in the north east on trend from the Llanos 34 fields.

We still have 7.5 million SOL (0.65%) and so negativity is to be expected: at some stage, those shorts need to close (as they have done on HUM, where SOL went from 2.59%, from recollection, to zero in the current rise: inside information, that there will not be the expected placing?). Here, of course, there will be no placing and so reliance must be that FIL continues to offload and that we do not suddenly get a good news update.

With a 3 trick pony, our own activities , OXY and ONGC, all capable of delivering upside, I would have thought that at the current SP, going long has to be the better trading strategy.

Why would I focus on what someone else gets?

At the end of the day, if JW delivers EE mark 2 then he is welcome to both his salary and bonus: I would prefer that he did not have his rewards before I get my share of the pie, but so long as he does not crash the company with greed, then I will live with that, so long as I can see that he is rewarded for progress.

Largely, the company has been self funding whilst it consolidates/expands, so they do, by AIM standards, "earn their keep".

Last year JW delivered the OXY deal and Indico, both validating what he has been up to since the Platinillo "cash cow" which has been helping AMER to tick over through the negative part of the oil cycle: IMO, he deserves his salary and bonus (particularly when he ploughs chunks of it back into on market purchases, aligning his interest with mine).

You could, of course, pay peanuts and get a monkey: plenty out there on AIM for a couple of hundred grand a year (or you could be really unlucky and pay more for less, such as Sefton and the hapless AAOG, joking at presentations and with a fresh disgrace emerging every day).

So, no, I don't post about JW's take because I can appreciate what he has done so far and have every expectation that he will deliver and I will collect handsomely on my investment in him.

First the BOD get criticized for over optimism and then for not "defending our interests" presumably by not talking this up?

Very few AIM companies are successful and this, at least, has shown financial prudence and an ability to seize (or possibly create) the low cost opportunities (yet to be properly monetized, although Indico is a start).

The real problem is that there are no investors willing to see what is obviously a long term strategy through to the end, with the full development of CPO-5 (and we can see just in this year how much that has ramped up and will ramp up: all those tender documents for surface infra structure and multiple well development) and the OXY deal.

Blame where it is due: it took ANH six months to approve the OXY deal and probably a similar time frame for PUT 8, delaying the projected well there. We are also expecting environmental permits in August: there just seem to be no obvious short cuts through the bureaucratic processes. That said, it is no better in the UK: look at any of the proposed big infra structure projects.

It is frustrating waiting for the rig to return to Indico 2 and hoping that Sol and the side track have added to BOPD, but news flow has been steady over the last 9 months and mostly showing that the company is moving in the right direction and with high price oil as a background.

The warrants only seem to be if JM "prepay" the loan. They look to be a guarantee that ACAM cannot be "caught short" by an unexpected return of the money: a very harsh early termination, if that is all it is.

They are certainly not borrowing the stock, as there is no SOL for JM at the moment, but these sharks have a way of operating that generally ensures minimization of risk: it should not be ruled out as the explanation.

Equally, it could just be placement shares, but I had thought that they had mainly gone into "safe" hands?

Churn has to be expected for some time after a major financing event and a 50% increase in SP.

There have been whispers of another acquisition, but that would be plain ridiculous, until Kabwe is up and running, generating cash flow and with the technical team freed up for its next challenge.

The likely culprit is that so called loan finance and those "sophisticated" sharks

"Secured debt funding of GBP6.11 million from ACAM (an affiliate of two sophisticated investors based in London and New York) bearing interest at 12 per cent p. a. and is repayable in full 36 months from the date of execution of the funding agreement.

At any time that the loan is outstanding, ACAM may at its absolute discretion, by conversion notice, elect to convert the loan and all accrued but unpaid interest into 5 per cent unsecured convertible loan notes with a conversion price of 2.81 pence (ZAR 53.98 cents) ("Subscription Price") and a maturity date which falls on the third anniversary of the Closing Date.

During the loan period, Jubilee may notify ACAM of its intention to prepay the whole of the loan balance by prepayment notice. On the date of any prepayment Jubilee will issue warrants to ACAM to a value equal to 50 per cent of the amount of the loan and all accrued but unpaid interest thereon divided by the Subscription Price"

Basically, the sharks will forward sell the conversion shares/warrants, thus recouping at least 50% of their capital, reducing their risk, while still receiving the 12% throughout the 3 year period (and free to lend that capital out again to some other unfortunate outfit).

The problem with most of the JM projects to date is that they have short lives (or in the case of Hernic, the profit share kicks in) and so they are not the basis for proper loan finance. Kabwe is a step change, but it appears that the country is not an easy investment location, hence this deal. It is difficult to assess which will be the most damaging in the long run: the low straight equity dilution or this slightly higher, but on ongoing drip into a very quiet market.

Background in mining and finance.

With current POG and increased capacity/profitability from the second ball mill, HUM is a steal at this market cap (less than the cost of building the plant).

The recent SP low was driven by shorting/expectation of dilution driven by cash flow concerns (unfounded it would seem as they apparently have an undrawn facility).

Fulfilling expectations that Q2 is better (more oz. and lower AISC) will go some way to restoring sentiment and the 2nd ball mill should give a further boost in Q3 putting this back on track after a walk on the wild side.

There is an old adage in business: the profit is in the purchase.

That is the strategy here: to exploit the cyclical nature of the oil industry, making acquisitions in the downturn and capitalizing on those when the industry picks up again and the timing in Colombia has been perfect. From bandit land, it has changed into the "must have" address for the majors, all queuing up for a slice of the pie (the stable alternative to Venezuela).

What has to be remembered is that not all parts of the pie have a jam filling and JW, with his extensive in country knowledge has accumulated the "extra special" slices (CPO 5 and Put 8, both with light and heavy oil).

It will be interesting to hear what Nathan Piper has to say about the AMER holdings in the Colombian context.

The initial stages are always quite slow, but pace is picking up, particularly at CPO 5.

My thoughts, Fevertreeman? Both you and I know that this will come good and neither of us care whether it is through the drill bit or a "wheeler-dealer" sale at the right price.

Fact: there has been more drilling in 2019 than 2018.

Geo park will do what everyone else does: seismic first and then drill leads and in blocks where there has been no previous activity, they will need to deal with environmental permits and social issues. In many ways, their $100m is similar to the OXY $93.25 million, which was for seismic and 5 drills and will happen.

Post Sol, the plan has been confirmed as the rig back to Indico

"After testing operations are completed at Sol-1 the rig will move to drill the Indico-2 appraisal well".

As everyone has noted, multiple tenders are now ongoing for CPO 5 operations and that should be the gauge of up coming activity on that block.

Good news that they did not need to use the loan facility: cash flow must be going in the right direction.

Stock on loan at the end of May was 2.59% and nothing at the end of June. That reduction tells its own story: no expectation any more of cheap stock from a placement, as confidence returns along with positive cash flow.

Good that May confirmed as within guidance. In the interview, Bert Munro seemed pleased that HUM had finally turned the corner after 3 bad Qs and it is to management's credit that they navigated through the difficult period without dilution.

Why mess about with heavy oil, when the economics of the light oil are so much better?

Flow testing takes time.

Loto : 23 days (NB Mirador/heavy oil)
Mariposa : 26 days
Indico : 22 days
Calao : 26 days
Sol : so far 22 days

The puzzle was Calao and what they were testing, if there was no trap and no oil?

Looking back at Loto, the net pay was good, but heavy oil (at 16 and 10 API and a high water cut) and poor flow. They still described that as useful bolt on production.

Net pay is only part of the story: API and porosity of rocks may mean that a wider area can be drained and that can be highly cost effective. Economics will depend on whether this is a pocket or a wider basin.

So, no gulp just yet.

GLA

If that was the full extent of the warrants, it would be no big deal.

There are significant warrants, at 40.7p, 48.1p and 55.5p: 50m shares to rinse into the market.

The plus side is that, when exercised, i3E have enough cash to cover the junior loan notes and that provides comfort for all. If the drills are successful, there should be no need for a further equity raise pending the senior debt facility.

These operations have to be financed and the overall package here looks well thought out, but realistic in the face of the current market.

Swindon

This is not death spiral finance as end stopped at 20% below issue price of 5.2p ie roughly 4.2p.

Below that point, the pain is on EHGOS.

I wholly agree that it would have been better to raise the straight equity finance for the drill only and taken an axe to "administration": some deferred salary for troughers would have been a good start. Anyone attending tonight, should make that point loud and clear: until they hit oil, drill only costs and if the lights go out after that, so what? Why have finance coming in for the next 12 months just for "admin" to squeeze out the last drop of benefit for management?

Generally not keen on these arrangements at all, but does the min. 80% mean that any shorting is end stopped at 4p (ie 80% of issue price.

They do occaisionally work when there is a stream of really good news, generating sufficient volume into which to sell (saw both on the Lanstead agreement on AMC: when the price rocketed on the licence agreement, AMC did well out of the profit share).

To make this work to the benefit of the company, AAOG need to really motor on getting that next rig on site, with clear time lines on completion, sorting out the delivery to market (if successful) etc.

Willec

It just means that individual positions are small and under the disclosure thresh hold.

Last time I looked, the "stock on loan" was down considerably from its highs of 19 million.

Sorry about double post: the site is unstable and posted (twice) part way through!

All that I had left to say was that good results in the early years is important because of the NPV calculations and in this case, the need to pay down the loan, which is front end loaded on LOM. Current gold prices will really help them out, if these are sustained for some time: £100 per oz for a years production at 130,000 adds $13m. pa. over and above existing projections.