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JP2000

My thoughts on ONGC exactly and better expressed in your excellent post!

Fully agree with PP that ONGC are impossibly bureaucratic, putting the purchase of a paper clip out to tender, but there may be monetary constraints as well. Calao will have changed cash flow and it has to be remembered that whilst the rig is at Sol, Indico 1 is on full production. (It had to be choked back for Calao and presumably, will also have to be choked back again for Indico 2.

They do, however, to retain the CPO-5 block have to fulfill their commitments (and they also have additional capital expenditure on this block, because ANH allowed them to transfer commitments from other Colombia blocks, which has increased the pressure).

For those who attended the AGM, it was clearly explained that ONGC had to do Sol to to keep the block ( Indico 2 is appraisal not exploration).

Like everyone else, I am hoping that the next news will be spudding at Indico and that this will happen shortly.

As for any suggestion that GC/JW could change the deal with ONGC, that is simply not possible: we took the 30% as part of Petrodorado on terms already laid down.

It does seem odd in hindsight than ONGC did not stump up for the 30%, but there again, that was pre Mariposa (and, allegedly the new interpretation by JW).

All of the Colombian "suitors" will be well placed to make their own judgement of the AMER assets. Like JW they have been around the block there for a long time and know where the oil is to be found, in the well established trends. Parts of AMER will be very valuable and that is reflected in the fact that we now know that there are multiple hats in the ring.

I doubt very much that this will go on the cheap to a P/E firm to break up and sell on at a great margin: GC/JW/AS have the experience and contacts to make the best deal themselves without any fat middleman creaming off a high %.

My money is still on OXY. They made the 1st successful move and are likely to build on that to increase the size of their operation to one compatible with their international status. They obviously have a head start on everyone else in terms of access to the data room and management.

It is not that simple.

Different rules apply and the 75% is in respect of a scheme of arrangement: otherwise, acceptances of 50% gives control and less than 50% mean that bid fails.:

" Where a scheme is being used to effect a takeover, the 50% acceptance level tests and
the 90% squeeze-out tests are not relevant. Instead, in order for the scheme to go ahead,
it must be approved at a meeting of the shareholders of the Target by a majority in number,
representing 75% in value, of those voting. Once the resolutions are passed, Court
approval for the scheme is sought a few days later.for a takeover".

If it goes to disposals at an asset level, then the BOD have always bought and sold these and we get to know after the event. In the current circumstances, I imagine that scrutiny of any proposed deal will be invited/voted, as it end stops later claims against the BOD.

Major shareholders>1% (%) Number of shares

Michinoco...................(11.06%).....134,452,585
Canaccord.....................(7.79%).......94,690,000
River & Mercantile.......(5.9%)........71,717,924
AXA ..................................(5.69%).......69,125,693
Fidelity............................(4.82%).......58,690,586
Legal & General........... (4.35%).......52,968,281
Chelverton....................(1.97%).......23,981,802
Slater...............................(1.47%).......17,813,900
Killic.................................(1.79%).......21,772,492
Hermes...........................(1.30%).......15,804,491
Grandeur Peak.............(1.67%).......20,336,890

A quick summary of the position to date.
Mostly static, with Canaccord, Killic and Hermes adding (and FIL also added a minor number)
Grandeur Peak were reducing at the start (or had to correct the declaration)

Hargreaves Lansdown, Interactive and Jarvis have all not declared (presumably nominees).

In total, major shareholders are less than 50%, so the power of the humble PI should not be discounted, particularly if support for the BOD is required (they, of course, hold 5% which would be the casting vote in a straight II v PI standoff).

GLA

Well all that subterfuge and speculation that Michinoko was a GC offshore vehicle of some sort.

Amazing that the final revelation has caused so little speculation.

So, the AGM rumor is likely to be correct, but did"Michinoko" decide on a more drastic strategy than just removing GC: we did not see the votes and so do not know whether there were substantial numbers cast against GC.

Is Michinoko one of the P/E firms interested in AMER, given that several are reputedly interested? Obviously Coller sees the upside in Colombia or he would not have increased his holding by 3% back in April 2017.

Will the companies already operating in Colombia see greater value in certain of the assets?

Just looking at Parex and Geopark, it is hard to imagine that they have no interest in extending their LL 34 activities on into CPO-5. They do seem much better contenders than ONGC and have built their market caps to a great extent on the one block.

It is difficult to see why anyone other than OXY would walz off with this: GTE willstruggle to match any decent offer from OXY, but they do sometimes surprise, as they are bold and confident in their approach: obviously, it comes from knowing the potential.

M & P, although they started this and might have been the stalking horse, do seem to be just a distraction.

GLA

A lot of dynamics such as when gold becomes to expensive it can be the substitute, but it is also an industrial metal.

Steadily increasing

!st Notification on 22nd July: 17,131,594
Now: 19,358,923

They should and not yet is the answer. Today is the last of the 10 days and so I would expect Michinoko today or tomorrow latest.

I doubt if there is any change from the last AIM Rule 26 disclosure.

31/3 6,669,492 per Morning Star
22/7 12,903,200 !st declaration
31/7 13,104,541 small increases
5/8 15,769,365 latest declaration

Steadily increasing their stake, but without affecting the SP

Just phase 1
Reserves 2P recoverable: 11 MMbbl

Phase 1 & 2 total
Reserves and resources: Mid 80 MMbbls

Certain of the metrics are key to move from a "rear view mirror" assessment to what comes next.

Grade and throughput are they key to profitability.

The Q2 grade improved to 2.86 g/t but that masks the trend with in the quarter, which went from 2.57 g/t to 3.2 g/t .

Within that quarter AISC will have been significantly better in June than April.

If that June grade can be maintained (there was the artisan mining problem and they are specifically targeting higher grade) and with the second ball mill delivering increased throughput trending towards the 32500 oz per quarter, it can be seen that this is a very different proposition.

Obviously $100 per oz extra on the POG is jam on the top.

Whist Betts clearly is inexperienced (and overpaid), the problems of the last 12 months have been bad luck rather than bad management and overall, the strategy is sensible and being implemented steadily: the second ball mill is the best example I can offer in support of my opinion.

Toro is a really good comparison and thanks for that, Blackfist.

It sets a benchmark for the progress HUM needs to make in 2019, playing "catchup".

Like HUM (from a really quick look) ongoing production for an extended LOM is going to be dependent on upgrade/exploration (it does not even seem to have as much to upgrade from the lower categories).

Grades also look lower than HUM's, but AISC is better: clearly from the higher annual production. It underlines why HUM have made the decision to add the ball mill and expand production and just what impact this will have on profitability.

I am looking forward to the first results from the inclusion of the 2nd ball mill and wonder if Q2 is being held to include a sneak preview of the step change effect?

HUM is in real danger of becoming someone else's snack ( particularly with the current POG) at the current SP/ market cap.

Cav

Little chance of that: CPO-5 t is regarded as the jewel in the crown of ONGC Videsh and was identified as such in the out going chairman's final address.

http://www.ongcvidesh.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Farewell-Message.pdf

According to GC, ONGC are very proud of this discovery (and that was pre Indico).

If that is how it is regarded by the overseas arm of the Indian national oil company, then it is difficult to see why either their 70% or our 30% is not extremely valuable.

The BOD may well play for time to get Indico 2 results before ink dries on any contract.

To a large extent, the "tar and feathering" at the AGM was down to one self important "gob****e" complaining about the cost of an early morning rail ticket, who managed to totally disrupt JW's presentation.

It was bad form and does nothing to encourage the BOD to engage with PIs (such as moving the 2019 AGM to London).

So far in this unwelcome process, the BOD have handled the situation well.

What we have to hope is that GC is drumming up suitors in London, whilst JW talks to his mates in Colombia, most of whom have their HQs in Bogota (we already know that JW spends time in the ONGC offices).

This is the opportunity to demonstrate the deal making skills which have long been a topic of conversation and that will include the resistance movement in the share register. It will be less important, of course, if the company is parceled up: that, in many ways, can really be the curved ball in the process, to derail any hostile takeover of the company.

Thanks for the response.

I'm not reading it quite like that. There seem to be 2 Miton entities, Miton Group and Miton UK Microcap, dripping shares into the market (1st down from 9.85% to 7.29% and the 2nd just dodging under the 3%) probably because some of these well known names are taking a bashing and they are forced to sell stock to release funds (saw that on SPL a few years ago when Miton hammered SP to 6p!)

The warrants puzzle me. I am assuming that the junior loan note holders will want them cashed to protect their own loan, but no real evidence of that in size (despite the rinse and repeat cycle at play) even though all of them are now in the money.

Are you sure that there was a copper plant?

From memory, the copper operation was separate and a scam: an asset which did not exist (or did not belong to BRM).

Unbelievable that anyone would support Borrelli after he has squandered the Kabwe opportunity: copper exploration in Chile! That just sounds like Herencia mark 2 and Picasos all over again. Avoid.

There should be a blacklist of CEOs on AIM: plenty of names spring to mind: serial offenders like Landau, Agnostarus Adams and Borrelli has earned his place on that list: incompetent, shameless, greedy. Every now and again you get a star: management is so important.

Miton or the warrants?

GA

HH taken over by Canaccord in 2017, having steadily increased share (and buying currently in the market : a million between 22nd and 24th July per 8.3) and now at 91,925,000. Our second largest holder after Michinoko at 134,452,585 (11.06%) and worth watching. They bought that last million at 17.795p.

As you say, GB, lots of news and I am wondering if they are waiting for a month of the new ball mill, as this will be a step change, both in produced oz. and profitability per oz.

March 2016 @ 25p and Hargreave Hale took 36 million.

9 March 2016
Amerisur Resources Plc

Results of placing

Amerisur Resources Plc ("Amerisur" or the "Company"), the oil and gas producer and explorer focussed on South America, is pleased to announce the successful completion of the proposed placing, as announced earlier today (the "Placing").

A total of 106,000,000 new ordinary shares of 0.1 pence each in Amerisur (the "Placing Shares") have been placed by Stifel, Investec and RBC at a price of 25 pence per Placing Share, raising net proceeds of approximately US$35 million.