Member Info for Juxtapose

One of the aspects which does not seem to have been debated is that we are all looking at this in 2 D along a channel.

For the OWC of course that makes no difference: it will be at a consistent level throughout a structure.

Within the channel, at this precise point per the 2 D diagram at which we have all been looking, there may be variations in the depth of sand above OWC on this cross channel crest: effectively, I am raising the possibility once again that they might not be in the optimal place in the channel (albeit managing to have drilled within it rather than missing it, this time!)

I am struggling to see how the whole model could be out by 60 feet and that is particularly true as they have now used more than one set of data: a local variation at this crest seems the more likely explanation and hence further ponderings on the subject by me.

Still holding for Serenity and I would not be sorry if the funds raised were used to appraise that further: they should certainly use the Dolphin whilst they have the availability.

One thing that I would say about management is that despite the appalling leaks, which need internal investigation, is that they have really cracked on with the program. I really hate cynical management who raise funds and draw it all as salary: at least they are throwing the darts at the board here and giving the company a fighting chance of success.

For real insight, see Typo's post on ADVFN

" Volume at close was due to FRES being deleted from the MSCI Standard Indexes. The MSCI reshuffle led to high volumes in several stocks, most notably WG. and INVP which uncrossed over 6% of their market cap."

Apparently, the deletion there was announced on the 7th November and may have been a factor in the fall over the last couple of weeks.

The drill has proved that the OWC is at the depth mapped.

That means:
Either this specific crest was "exaggerated" by 60 feet (no big deal: there is oil at 20 feet for the length of the channel as shown)
Or that the whole sand structure is 60 feet lower (ie mostly below the OWC and therefore no oil for most of the length apart from peaks such as at this location ).

No one yet, not even the company, knows where the error lies and hence the testing: pressure obviously will indicate the size of the find and VS would test east and west of this location.

Currently, I am holding for Serenity, as there is value there and it is an attractive proposition for our well funded neighbours and if this comes good, that will be a bonus.

Think of a tall glass full of sand filled with oil and water.

Over time, the oil floats to the top (it cannot escape because of the seal) and so the top is oil filled sand and the bottom is water filled sand: where they meet is the OWC. The water provides some upwards pressure on the oil, but there is no more oil to float to the top (in this structure: of course there also appears to be a lower structure, but that is also sealed)

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

The updated position last Friday shows that the shorters look to have succeeded in their aim.

On current positions, Hiscox will be accompanied by Fresnillo out of the FTSE 100, as there are 2 new entries, Easy Jet and Just Eat to be automatically added.

Many funds are forced to re balance their portfolios and will already be selling in anticipation of the confirmation on 4th December. That will allow the extra ordinary shorting position which has developed here to close their shorts without rocketing the share price.

What a sorry state of affairs when the capital markets set out to destroy rather than build value for all.

Too shocked to comment last week.

For me, the very fact that this BOD could endorse such as offer after the "materially undervalued" RNS re M and P eliminates all possibility of continuation of current management: they are dishonest and incompetent, not fit for office.

That leads me inevitably to the conclusion that a sale/merger has to take place and it leaves me with a single question: was there any offer for the whole that was part share/part cash which was better than the 19.21p (including any alternative part share offer from Geopark)?

It is wholly wrong that all shareholders have not been treated equally: PIs should at least know what other offers have been received from those multi well funded parties and without disclosure of that information, I would argue that we have been substantially disadvantaged.

For anyone seeking to overturn this deal, I would suggest that it is an absolute imperative to extract that information. We need to know if there was a better alternative and get behind that: we should not replicate the Brexit style folly of voting down what we don't want, but failing to precisely identify what alternative is both realistic and acceptable.

To all LTHs who have ended up in loss territory, I sympathize: this is a bitter pill to swallow.

4th December is the date to watch re any possible exodus from the FTSE 100 and it was TBTT who made that connection with the extreme shorting back in September.

If FRES can squeak through this quarter, then 2020 should see a decent recovery out of the danger zone and reflecting the medium term return on the current substantial investment program.

Boom
Sorry if I have misunderstood your post, but there were 3 RNSs on the 8th November including the spudding of the A2 well last week, now drilling ahead.

It does not seem to be on LSE tab, but was as follows:

"Liberator A2 spud
After plugging and abandoning the Serenity 13/23c-10 well as planned, the Borgland Dolphin semi-submersible rig was mobilised to Liberator's A2 location, and the A2 well has now been spud. The Company will provide A2 drilling results to the market when the well has reached total depth and acquired data has been evaluated. The results of the A2 well will allow the location and trajectory of the future LP-02 production well to be optimized and will be plugged and abandoned as planned."

These are relatively quick drills and the first one only took 19 days, so we could be only a couple of weeks from the results.

A lot of the smaller buys will be PIs, emboldened by the Serenity success to average down.

I am puzzled at the reaction to that good news, particularly given the proximity of Repsol/RR and their intentions re the Tain field. Both parties will undoubtedly benefit from economies of scale and it cries out for a sale/JV . In this case, chasing the SP down to the placing price was not justified, but that is the way of the market.

GLA

My thoughts exactly.

On a glass half full basis, some spectacular deals. Retrospectively, CPO-5 looks like daylight robbery from the Petrodorado perspective and who would quibble at the OXY farm in only just last year?

They have a small team and 100% management focus on the FPS seems to me to be the right priority: the perfect timing for a myriad of reasons.

GLA, particularly LTHs and may the shorters borrowing that stock on loan of 12 million fry in Tusk's "special place".

Subwave: lots of AIM juniors also on NEX

https://www.nexexchange.com/

Put in HUM in "find a company"

NEX regulatory status

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Our Markets

NEX Exchange operates three markets, providing access to capital and liquidity for companies of all sizes and at all stages of development, and whatever their objectives in coming to market.

NEX Exchange is a member of the NEX Group.

Subwave

Did you look on NEX?

04/11/2019 15:56 2,257 24.9
04/11/2019 13:16 10,000 24.65
04/11/2019 11:07 816 24.65
04/11/2019 10:27 3,118 24.65
04/11/2019 10:19 16,633 24.65

CD
All interesting thoughts: mine based on the expectation that "multiple" equals 4 or 5.

PP

Agreed re any total outsider, but ONGC and Oxy are not and there are others who will have as much knowledge as AMER of the prospectivity of the blocks eg GTE and Put 8.

That said, I was thinking more of someone who perhaps participated, but then decided not to show their offer until the FSP was complete and others had revealed their hands in the game of poker.

My point is that, whilst it is unlikely to succeed, a hostile bid could come at any time between a recommended offer and the acceptance by the required number of shareholders.

The FSP cannot, of itself, prevent another bid coming in and being accepted by the shareholders, but it is a dangerous game for any prospective purchaser to play, since the board may get agreed support from major shareholders for the offer being recommended, such that the late gatecrasher cannot get the required majority.

I am assuming some kind of sealed bid by a deadline, which gives every participant the opportunity to make their best and final offer: it seems the only way to handle interest from multiple parties.

Tornado Tony

Much of that article refers back to the July saga and that was prior to the recent rise in metal prices: subsequently, it has been acknowledged that the negative sentiment at that time was overdone, somewhat (GS from memory).
I take issue with the "Fres has posted bad results for several quarters in a row": the truth is that Q1 was bad and has impacted on H1, but Q2 was much improved.
If they can meet the current production target (and the Q2 improvement was encouraging) at the current product prices, then H2 will be in a different ball park.

Tony
Most analysts are well above current SP: to whom are you referring specifically?
H2 will perform significantly above H1 and in 2020, the new projects are scheduled to kick in (some earlier, such as Herradura).
The reason for the current SP is shorting.
Stock on loan per Euro clear has risen from 26.63% of stock in public hands (ie excluding Penoles, with approx. three quarters of all issues share capital, who do not change that position) to 27.48%, over 50 million shares shares.
That wholly distorts the market: shorts are continually opened, but not closed: just like all the funny money out there, it is a distortion of "real" capital.
Put simply, if those shorts had to close, where would this SP be?

Nickel investor
FXPO looks interesting until it comes to location: Ukraine.
East and west squaring up on that border might not be good for business.

Tornadotony

A number of the major cost components impacting on H1 2019 are one offs, identified in comparison with H1 2018.
The expectation (deducting production in H1 from the revised annual guidance, said to be conservative) is that production in H2 will resemble H2 2018 and be substantially better than H1 2019.
Higher production always = lower cost per oz (due to fixed cost component)
Less of the "one off"costs.
Significantly higher POG and POS, straight to bottom line.

The buy side is simply being overwhelmed by the ongoing shorting: excluding Penoles, stock on loan sails on up towards 30% of stock. At these kinds of levels, it is substantial dilution by "double counted" shares. Other than by market manipulation, how can that short position be unwound?

How will this market react to positive production figures next week, when it is praying for a disaster scenario?

There are a multiplicity of reasons why a sale of the company as a whole is the best outcome.
Just to name a few:
Individual asset sales are subject to approval by ANH: we all know what a delay that can cause.
Company taxation (as well as any personal taxation on our own share sales proceeds).