Member Info for JustHereForHemo

TL;DR Version -> Stu says Hemo is a better investment than AVCT which is a 200m mcap?

Fine ill take that, have a good weekend Stu :P

Nope, bound to be a coincidence......

I do admire how they are able to raise a few mil each few months for only 7% discount, that's pretty impressive. Enjoy work and the crack

Saying so much about avcta will wind people up, fine I get it your defending your baby. AND I get your point about warrants. But bottom line is they are ALL priced higher than the current mCap.

Not one single warrant issued could be converted today without taking a loss. So anyone buying today is buying at a price advantageous to the warrant holder.

I git warrants for buying stock in a CLN when the company was struggling, I paid a premium and before the shares were even converted there was a 40% discount placing. The warrants take away SOME of the sting, that and never being constipated again.

The warrants are deffered funding for the company. Personally I hope Vlad is I'm contact with warrant holders and they convert early when in profit to fund Hemo while we wait for JV or licensing.

The comparison with CLN debt however? That CLN will be converted into more and more shares at a volume weighted discount if the company cannot raise enough in a placing. We warrant holders have zero interest in the sp going down, we don't get more shares, we ONLY profit if the sp goes up.

Final note:

https://uk.investing.com/equities/silver-falcon-plc-technical

We are above the 200 day moving average of 154.306 which he says is the key indicator he uses to buy, so we have his endorsement.

Summary: Strong Buy

Moving Averages: Buy Buy: (10) Sell: (2)

Technical Indicators: Strong Buy Buy: (9) Sell: (1)

I dont think anyone here should mind Hemo being compared with anything else, we have a growing pool of experts looking at Hemo and they like what they see, there is nothing to hide. Even the people posting comparisons are saying Hemo looks good, but they question the timeline and finances? Thats fine, no LTH should be afraid to reflect.

The point that Haywain raised about Ava600 is valid, for it be really commercially valuable they have to be better than the alternative, that means time and money to do comparability tests. I am not pooping on them just stating a fact. With Hemogenyx? They were advised by the FDA to go after rr AML because there was nothing, the FDAL WANTED them to tackle AML first and they did. The paediatric expansion YES implies that HG-CT-1 is effective but its also very much because there is NOTHING for many of those patients, as long as HG-CT-1 is safe and MIGHT work its better than nothing. The path to FDA approval here could be very short, but lets face it, in no way can Hemogenyx continue all the way to Phase 3 self funding, so length of trial is irrelevant to us as shareholders.

With an mCap of 7m we point blank cannot self fund forever, nor is a CLN an option as many have suggested as they are "CONVERTABLE" No lender would issue a CLN even remotely close to whats required when the mCap is so low.

The mCap also rules out many VC as the equity required would be prohibitive.

Funding fundamentally forces Vlad to seek out big pharma support which PROBABLY means JV, if that happens we re-rate in a nano second.

Vlad knows it takes time, he cannot force a BP to hand him squillions, what he CAN do?

He has SLASHED his overheads so he does not run out of money, dropping to under 250k p/m without compromising the trails

Press forward with trials including the paediatric expansion

Collect data and make it available to any big pharma that wants to look.

The loudest shares out there are shares with debt, companies that are spending millions per year furnishing debt. To be clear Hemogenyx has ZERO. And with a cash burn of under 250k no need to take on debt.

We have one complete cohort and so far so good. If HG-CT-1 works? its worth 500m-1bn. We can sit and wait and let the results build up until we get a bite, its really not that complicated.

The risk? Discount placings with the likes of Peterhouse or SP Angel flipping or shorting, thats the risk, thats always been the risk....... No comment.

EVERY SINGLE ONE OF YOU HAD A CHANCE TO BUY SHARES AT £1.30p.

Tomorrow you have the chance of buying at £1.70p

If you think Vlad is going to shaft you with a discount placing or something then dont buy, short or sell, whatever.

If you think people have realised what is on offer here and started to pile in then join them and wait.

Its not Avacta, if you think Avacta is a good investment buy Avacta, if you think Hemo is a good investment buy Hemo.

More than enough in the RNS's to make an informed decision.

Good to hear and Hemogenyx have also changed, they are not the same company they were a year ago. Moving clinical, sorting out an unsustainable cash burn and drop kicking bad funding options have change the profile here entirely. I was a diehard fan before but atleast now I am not alone lol!!!

Lots of engagement today, always good to have new visitors.

Lets let the SP do the talking, if people want to invest here they can, if they want to invest in AVCT? Crack on.

On the 11th the spread was about 139-145p per share with tiny volume making it a premium buy but has taken over a month to fill and close out? Anyone want to tell me the market makers have oodles and oodles of cheap shares?

Alde, I would say we have tapped a resource for Vlad that will mean CLN will never be a better option. The army of Zealots have this handled ;-)

Completely different topic... That is one hell of a delayed trade!!!

11th July???? Is that a buy or a sell?

I am as obsessed as anyone on here. If Vlad even mentions CLN in his sleep I would sell. Not happening

Can I please humbly request that we dont? I know I know, pot/kettle. But there are new people visiting this site who had never heard of Hemogenyx before, heaven knows we may have patients and family from the trials.

Please lets be kind to each other and not bait, and this is incredibly rich coming from me.... But I am trying to be better!

Im not going to go further down the rabbit hole as I tend to do because its not my bag, but Haywain has alot of experience dealing with the FDA and can probably give you a sensible answer here, so I will leave this conversation to him. All I will say is in terms of cutting phases short? I agree with you but bigger brains than me say its sometimes worth continuing.

There is a balance between what's best for the patient vs what's best for the trial. A higher dose may increase risk of neurotixicity or cytokine release syndrome however it also means a greater level of CAR-T likely meaning longer persistence and reduced chance of relapse.

A genuinely interesting question I have harassed Haywain with several times. NOT a decision I would want to be responsible for.

If a deal is secured then your flying, I did check that out and although there is no early repayment for cash clause there IS protection for both lender and company, max 5% dilution to cancel it out which is nothing. Would say it is a bit sneaky not to have disclosed the details of the monthly conversions, BUT the have gotten away with it long enough to prove they can repay in cash so its worked out. Anyway contrary to belief I do research other companies not just Hemo and I do try and be fair.

Bottom line there is a big market, the science there looks good and both you and Alde have promised to move any massive profits from there to here if a deal lands so I REALLY hope one does soon

I hate asking this here as this is a very specific Avacta question and if I post it there it would be deemed as de-ramping, but I did go and look...

21 Jan 2025 AVCT issued 6.6m shares to settle a quarterly repayment + interest, this implies a conversion price of 45p or a VWAP discount of 10-15% which is about right and consistent with other CLNs. The recent placing to repay part of the CLN also stated "Placing better than conversion" which again implies a conversion would have been more than 7% discount.

However when you read the initial CLN documentation the Reset Conversion Price CANNOT drop below 95p. So how can there be a conversion at 45p?

I asked AI and it clarifies this 95p is for total conversion to close out the facility if requested by the lender, IE if the SP shot much higher than 95p it would be in their interest to do so before the 1 month upward reset kicked in.

Basically this means there is a quarterly look back provision which directly decides the conversion price of quarterly repayments and for the life of me I cannot find it anywhere.

IMO THIS piece of information is more important than anything else given the 95p repayment is so unlikely given current SP and requirement for the lender to take a loss to convert, OR Avacta raise 22m to close out the facility?

I will be honest with you, I looked at the CLN previously and my initial thoughts were "F Me! Those are good terms!" but the facts as per RNS prove that the terms publicied at the start do not match reality. It DOES operate like the CLN held by Mint with us except for 3 significant differences, 1, Nobody knew about the downward quarterly adjustment until wayyy later. 2, There is a fixed quarterly repayment where as Mint could convert as often as they liked. 3, Avacta are able to raise cash though placings to repay the quarterly payments and interest.

So again, I hope you appreciate me asking this on the Hemogenyx board to avoid causing disruption there, but are you aware of the terms of calculation for the quarterly conversion price? IF so can you link me? I would like to read it.

Honestly we suffer from PTSD, there are 3 Letters in the English dictionary that raise shivers on the back of every Hemo shareholder... I shall not repeat them.

Alde, you say your doing your research and you have certain criteria which is key for you before you invest, such as being above the 200mda etc, all this is fine and reasonable but you NEED to realise something about Hemogenyx. We have been burned very very badly by CLNs, Mint was like cancer for us, many of us will not touch a company with CLNs so like the recent RNS has this line:

"The Issue Price of the Placing Shares represents a lower level of dilution to Avacta's shareholders than would have been the case through the share-based payment route under the terms of the bond."

Bottom line for myself and others I speak too unless the CLN is gone Avacta is a no go, I am not deramping I am simply clarifying one of my red lines. The other is Chemotherapy, we shareholders are very much keyboard warriors, we know what cancer does to the body and we know that often the cure is worse than the disease so IMO collectively we wish Avacta resounding success. IF I or a family member get cancer and need chemo i want it to be as safe and targeted as possible, but chemo is poison and often only a bridging therapy, for AML it could work but it would require HSCT. HG-CT-1 and CDX have the potential to be curative removing the need for Chemotherapy and transplant entirely and not just in AML.

This board is to discuss Hemogenyx and I understand there are times for comparison to companies like Avacta but honestly if both were at equal stages of trial even you would agree Hemo would win on science IF they were at the same stage.

I dont actually mind healthy debate and some of your points have been valid but you have to admit you came here with ulterior motives, its fine, dont care, the past is the past.

Fundamentally with the CLN can anyone see AVCT doing 1000%? That would make it a 2bn company and require 1800million additional mCap appreciation, all with a CLN and debt holders. Now consider Hemo, can anyone see HEMO doing 1000%? That would make us a 70mn mCap company and require 63 million in appreciation. I would note that Hemogenyx was a 70m mCap company PRE Mint CLN decimation.

Bottom line is IF I am being honest, if we can secure investment from new blood who are keen to hold at a premium and Vlad can continue to deliver the science?

Then absolutely I can see Hemogenyx going back to being a 70m mCap company and far beyond, HOW Vlad funds this company will decide.

Anyone who wants to fact check this can disregard CDX, forget CBR, pick your favourite AI and ask it if HG-CT-1 is worth it.

I would say folks, time for all of us to act more mature. Myself included. Good things are happening, let's put childish toys away. Hemogenyx has matured, grown and changed. We won't fix things on LSE, we fix this company by securing good solid investment from investors who are going to hold and support the company.

I want to be as transparent as possible but it's just not possible to do so on here as I am sure you understand. All I can say is I am a significant shareholder and my only goal here is to protect the company, protect the trials and by extension protect my investment. I am confident we will achieve this. I am not against talking more offline but this is LSE, you can't say boo without starting an argument.