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Severely curtail the freedoms of the unvaccinated (without health reasons) and remove any reliance on the welfare state if they are unable or not allowed to work from home. This will protect the NHS and themselves from their own stupidity.

Perhaps a more practicable solution would be to resurrect the Nightingale hospitals and fill them with all with the unvaccinated who require hospitalisation. These pop-up hospitals could be run and staffed by the armed services and their medics as they would run a field hospital on the battlefield. This would free up all NHS hospitals and their world class medical teams to concentrate for example on successfully treating cancer patients from all ages who at the moment are sitting at home counting the days as a positive prognosis with timely intervention becomes a get your affairs in order .

There needs to be radical change to ensure the NHS does not become periodically a CHS to the detriment of far greater numbers of people of all ages with other treatable serious illness or the thousands with undiagnosed & potentially life threatening conditions simply because they can’t or get fed up trying to get prioritised or any appointments to discuss and diagnose worrying symptoms.

Finally, backs of fag packets are too spacious for me to write down all my knowledge about viral infections but would I be right in saying that if a virus wants to survive it will need to co-exist with its hosts not wipe them out and will therefore mutate into something more like the common cold or manageable with vaccination as flu is now?

Discussing such matters and the gravity for many vaccinated people who are facing the very real reality of death from an otherwise treatable non-covid condition because of the idiocy of others transcends any SP forecasts. You win some you lose some and whatever the pains they’re wounds that can be licked.

Agreed treatments for Covid will need to run alongside flu and evidentially will be managed in the same way with the acceptance it will contribute to the annual death rate as is the case with Flu - like many other illnesses their is no panacea its a sad fact of life.

Long term what is more worrying is our long term reliance on antibiotics. In my extremely limited understanding the ability for antibiotics to protect us against an animal mutated disease would dwarf a virus pandemic as development of new antibiotics appears to be a lot harder to develop than a vaccine and perhaps why Doctors are so reluctant to prescribe them . The medical challenges that lie ahead will always remain and if cures are yet to be developed we can all take personal health measures to mitigate risk , cancer and heart disease being good examples.

It’s easy and understandable to be overwhelmed with the gloom of it all but the current state of affairs will not become normal to the total degradation of life before 2020.

Tui and Luthansa have received c.€5bn and €9bn of State aid although they have both started to reduce debt thru recent rights issues. I cannot see the German Govt pulling the rug or refuse another funding request and in so doing having to right off €10-12bn knowing both airlines businesses will recover and repay the debt.

If the SP falls thru my stop loss , then in my personal opinion it’ll drop to Mar 2020 levels where I’ll buy back in and recover along with the company. If the German Govt call in or draw a line under their state funding for Tui & Luthansa can you envisage what will happen to aviation as a whole who according to IATA have received subsidies of c.£250bn & not withholding the ramifications on the markets as a whole. Tui going bust would be the least of our portfolio concerns.

I’d be worried for any airline today who to date has not yet to call on their state to prop them up. The fact Tui have ready been bailed out by the German Government 3 times means its position is a lot less precarious than airlines who are currently not indebted to their Govs and probably find themselves the wrong side of the line in the sand for government support in a Lehmanesque way.

I feel this has been Over sold - expectations lowered but still forecasting a profit & strong revenues - the brand has a good reputation for affordable , quality clothing with a broad customer demographic. When the country shows come back next year expect the usual crowds flocking round their field outlets - they also do a good line for dog owners and plenty of them around. Dont forget they acquired Garden store this year without the chance to fully utilise its potential as they will next year.

Supply issues are not unique to Joules , if it were then it would be an issue , so the negative adjustment is not self-inflicted.

Very tempting to get involved at these levels - 250p within 6 months wouldn't be unrealistic. I’ll wait to see if the herd knee jerkers lower the SP further but definitely keeping a close eye on any uptick.

No panic - Tonight was just Johnson’s cynical attempt to get himself off the front pages. It’s non-sensical to declare a national emergency but keep nightclubs and such like open . We know it , they know it and lets hope the media hammer Johnson tomorrow and ask how on god’s earth can he declare a NATIONAL EMERGENCY and let the partying commence? He’s desperate to save his Churchillian fantasy.

If they were that concerned about serious disease they would lock down as well as get the booster into arms as was done with the vaccine race last Winter.

In any event who is going to cancel Christmas get togethers ? Even if they made them illegal, people couldn’t be charged as this scandalous Government have set a legal precedent - unless Johnson was hauled into Westminster’s Magistrate Court for starters.

Just typed a long reply to give you my personal answers and supporting arguments to your 3 questions. Given my typing speed it was somewhat annoying verging on a nervous breakdown that as I reviewed my reply it somehow got removed and I am at pains to not say deleted.

In the interests of my own sanity I have had to précis my response to the 3 questions you raise:

No, no and no.

@Rr101 - its 180p - my theory is if it dropped thru that level it would drop a lot more and I’d buy back in as near the bottom as I could or in absolute worse case swallow the loss. I think that scenario is highly unlikely given the level of state funding they have received as have Lufthansa.

Expected but imo its actually encouraging provided the seemingly increasing expectation that Omicron doesn’t cause more serious disease and vaccinations maintain some degree of efficacy.

The one thing we can’t do much about is the lunatics are still in charge of the asylum and impossible to predict how their knees will jerk next.

The good news is that the markets are positive about Omicron outcomes unlike the media who feed off the doom of any negative comment by experts whilst ignoring the offsetting positive comments . The commercial media love it for the clickbait and the BBC do it I suspect to drive the faltering vaccination programme at the behest of Johnson, hamstrung by the fear of the axe of Dorries.

Imo if people are reluctant to take up the vaccines them ship them to poorer nations whose citizens may like to have a choice. The alternative is for wealthy nations to leave them on the shelf until they past the use by date. Rocket science it is not.

Tomorrow Tui release their annual report. Confident they will report good numbers for 21/22 Winter season and significant bookings for Summer 2022. We also need to see progress on paying down debt as reported at Q3. That said I expect the uptick in the past 2 days to be lost and back to 202p or thereabouts.

Tui are one of the few holdings on which I have a stop loss but if it ever was executed given its blue chip funding sources then we’d all have a lot more to worry about across the board.

It may take years if at all for Tui to recover to pre-covid position and SP of 900p is surely a pipe dream but having bought in during October 2020 at 290p and taking up the very generous offer in January’s rights issue , I’m hopeful by next summer i’ll be able to sell 50% of my holding and run the remainder as a bet to nothing. At least thats the theory and I’ll hold tight (literally) until theory is proven or stop loss is invoked.

Community transmission is already happening in UK, travel restrictions now is simply closing the stable door after the horse has bolted. This pathetic Government are doing it to make it look like they are in control , to hide their obvious ineptitude.

Best way to protect public health and economy of UK is not to use tax payers cash to line the pockets of chums with their gifted lft contracts but use it instead to start delivering vaccines to poorer nations with the same degree of false nationalist pride trumpeted at the start of the year.

No matter how many million boosters this myopic country can inject by end of January it will not protect us unless we roll out vaccines globally with the same rabidness & grab the moral compass and lead all the wealthiest nations to share the burden of global vaccination. Border controls will never work against an invisible enemy.

‘Not to long ago’ or 13 years ago whichever you prefer. How about another irrelevant example? Northern Rock purveyor of the 125% mortgages back in the day when a bank would take a railcard as collateral.

Dick Fuld was known as the Gorilla, which of course he loved in his misguided belief he was invincible , unfortunately he had a brain to match and his Mr tough guy approach prevented him from accepting an offer from the Korean’s months before the wall collapsed where the writing had once been written

The collapse of Lehman Brothers is as an enthralling (unless you lost your job and years of share bonuses)
a story as any penned by the likes of Grisham, if it were not so fatally true.

Definitely worth looking out the books written about the remarkable collapse of Lehman Brothers if only to discover that their venture into the travel industry never came to fruition . Pity really as might have been more successful than trying to package up sub prime mortgages into bonds that made junk look attractive.

Tui and the other airlines have been resilient this week with market sentiment failing to follow your catastrophic forecasts last weekend. I’d recommend you contact The Daily Express , I’m sure they could do with another contributor to dream up more alarming headlines , afterall doom sells.

WHO have said restrictions premature , ppl need to hold their nerve unless you think TUI or yourselves will go bust,

Tui have what looks to me like a full winter long haul schedule. For instance 4 flights a week from Gatwick to Cancun and a quick check for flights early next month and some show no availability . Indicates demand and too late for any benefit for plan B .

@fordm thanks for the insight and appreciate what you say. Lockdowns though are madness, draconian and perhaps if Governments want to take compulsory measures to show they are taking some measures maybe more simple restrictions regardless of effectiveness may encourage vaccination oppose than doing so by force. For the medium term vaccines are best way out of this until meds are developed to effectively manage illness if the 10 in a thousand are unlucky enough to succumb , Its the 300+ in 1000 with cancer who are really in trouble if authorities and experts want to talk about unavoidable deaths.

It’ll be interesting to see if the French method manages to maintain their lower levels of infection and increase their vaccination rates but all that said the only risk to Tui is a mutation that puts us all back to square one and personally I am happy to take that risk.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1139048/coronavirus-case-rates-in-the-past-7-days-in-europe-by-country/

Spain is the key stat here, most of countries with highest rates are not main Tui destinations if at all but worrying for EasyJet.

Canaries one of TUI’s most popular winter destinations will more than likely be unaffected and UK holidaymakers will I’m sure be welcome.

WHO states Europe is at the epicentre of Covid cases . Presumably, Tui will still be able to satisfy demand for their long haul winter holidays.

The market will probably knee jerk downwards in the morning before regaining early losses as reality sets in that lockdowns and mandatory vaccines for all citizens of an entire country will be counter productive to stability and vaccine take up. Short term, less onerous & simple compulsory measures such as mask wearing in doors, public transport & large outside gatherings will be far more effective.

If a good case can be argued for going against the crowd then its often a good strategy.

Is Austria a bell weather for holidays and aviation save for 3 day Christmas Market breaks & skis temporarily clogging up Innsbruck airport for a few months?

Austria is an outlier a lockdown in a country making vaccines mandatory for all. Who says fascism is dead in EU? Countries with low vaccination rates are unlikely to be ‘popular’ but border controls between countries with high infection rates and robust vaccine programmes are pointless.

More concerned with vicarious impacts of Covid on airlines such as BA arm of IAG & Easyjet. BA will have to overcome a business model rooted in pre-Zoom /MS teams times , and Easyjet trying to compete with Ryanair on price with much of their fleet sold on lease back schemes whilst Ryanair are putting in new orders with Boeing . In boxing terms it might be termed a mismatch.

Tui have the benefit of having a strong holiday offering to long haul winter destinations and with likes of Mexico off the UK red list the flights to Cancun will imo be back to capacity not to mention the connecting cruise flights to the Caribbean. No doubt they’ll also be using their fleet of dreamliners to max capacity and reduce cost to likes of Cyprus, Turkey and Canaries.

The shorters will bemoan if it wasnt for backing of German Gov Tui would be bust but they do have that support + a fairly wealthy Russian shareholder who is unlikely to see his investment head south unlike the flights.

Imo , Covid is no longer the issue for airlines but how they’re positioned to adapt going forward. Short haul airlines with out a strong packaged holiday are really up against it with Ryanair and Tui have the benefit to get revenues back on track with the long haul winter sun holidays.

I can’t see Tui back to March 20 levels and 200 to 210p a better bet than some of the alternatives in the sector, at least I hope so! However with exception of Ryanair it will take years for airlines to get balance sheets back to 2019 levels if they ever do so investing in the sector is a tad more risky and then we have the green lobby. Turbulence ahead but still a conservative buy.

Its actually 300 in every 100,000 or 3 in every 1000 . Even so your point still stands. Lockdowns now are pointless compared to last winter and medium term measures such as mandatory masks in all indoor settings and vaccine passports until such time the virulence greatly diminishes are sensible precautions that need have no impact on our immediate economy and eventual long term path out of this.

If lockdowns are still necessary then Governments are with holding information that the situation is more grave than the general public

Should read ‘or likes of Cape Verde’

Tui have a big demand for long haul winter season destinations for 21/22 and allegedly their Dreamliner crews have been prepared for a full schedule and we shouldn’t forget they have, like others expanded into cargo.

Price drop today was driven purely by German Health Minister talking about lockdowns & a ridiculous national emergency based on infection levels of 300 per 100,000 or I in 333. UK rate is around 1 in 65 . We can only dream of 1 in 333. All that said a short 2/3 week partial lockdown in Northern Europe is sensible to do as it should have been for UK at end of September as vaccine effect started to wane as is now happening in Germany. Austria’s temporarily draconian measures actually augurs well for the winter sports season.

Southern EU is doing far better and so I doubt popular winter sun destinations such as the
Canaries will be affected of likes of Cape Verde.

In March 2020 when this stock fell off a cliff with the rest of the airlines, borders were closed, daily death rates were a 1000+ and without any hope of a cure/vaccine the fear factor was off the scale for the majority.

Its a vastly improved picture 20 months on and an increase in the prevalence of border closures is going to be minimal and even highly cautious Australia has started to accept incoming long haul flights. High infection rates are no longer a precursor to 3 month lockdowns and travel restrictions and EU are experiencing vaccination wane now as they were behind UK in vaccine race so following UK’s experience but I doubt they’ll reach Johnson’s gung ho 1in 50 levels of infection.

Personally, I can’t see this dropping to March 2020 levels and by next Spring an SP of 300p is not a pie in the sky expectation .