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The ‘Russian’ can’t sell frozen assets and new Omnicron variants have already been detected in UK. A virus weakens overtime as it can’t survive itself if it kills off its host. This has been oversold today but as always those sellers need a buyer , just need to decide which side is shrewdest.

Better off in Tui at the moment.

SP was likely to drop given the fact the shares were sold at 8% discount. By close I’d hope the figure to be nearer 8% than 10% . Given the fact TUI only survived the pandemic with help from state and 2 RI the SP was never going to hit 500p + as some on here we’re predicting not so long ago . Removing the yoke of state funding has to be the priority and reducing debt from €6.2bn to €3.5bn with aid of latest placing and 2nd RI’s is worth the drop in SP thru dilution not discounting all the other head winds for the sector. Available liquidity will now just exceed debt and the wider that gap grows the better for us all.

As a post mentioned earlier until Tui can stand without aid of State funding it will be financially construed . Can’t see a dividend being paid no matter how profitable the company becomes whilst State need repaying and more importantly its in our best interests the firm does all it can to better position itself for turbulence to come. Its not a place to be invested in if you suffer from motion sickness.

With the headline news on inflation there’ll be a drop across the board. Regardless as you say price will drop , lets face it the price has still to recover to its 2nd terp. Long term though its the right strategy imo to reduce that state funding and after this capital raise the debt will be about €300m less than available liquidity and given where they were 19/20 - 20/21 that is a positive and can only help the recovery and SP but there’ll be no spectacular rises. Start of the year I thought 350p -400p was realistic but cost of living crisis has to have some impact so reigned back my expectations - still better than being technically insolvent and easy for me to be relaxed about it as only invested in Oct’ 20.

€425m raised from IIs at €2.62 per share (222p at 1.18€/£ rate) . Shares sold at around 8% discount as at yesterday’s close but with a 90 day lock up so buyers can’t make a quick kill . The test will be at the end of the lock up period if holdings pertaining to this placement are sold or held.

Hopefully, with the current level of summer bookings and further reduction of debt to €3.5bn (almost half what it was HY 20/21) courtesy of €425 raised here the strength of the recovery will continue at pace. Still believe the SP will be around 325p by September.

Tui’s debt burden will come with significant servicing costs but may have restrictive loan conditions which it will need to comply with and that could be restrictive to the firm’s ongoing recovery .

A capital raise thru share issuance to solely unsaddle themselves from the Covid state loans is more beneficial long term than any blip in share price due to dilution.

Freedom from state funding and any restrictive covenants can long term only add to the ability of the company to act in the interest of their shareholders than beholden to the German taxpayers.

Anyone bemoaning a temporary drop in price are not considering the long term benefits of the freedoms from removing reliance on state / emergency funding .

I do always have a stop loss but fortunately never had one invoked. In this case I removed my stop loss (foolishly in hindsight) because back in Feb I still felt the company would recover from a pretty poor situation with some issues entirely of their on making imo. I hoped this side of Christmas we’d see a recovery but with the cost of living crisis , Ukraine & Covid’s last hurrah it has really turned the screws. The 2nd profit warning and drop to 33p had me more than kicking myself as I’d ignored the best advice I’ve ever received from Kenny Rogers.

There are those who may indeed be buying cheap to build positions but they buy from sellers who think the opposite.

The chinks of light imo for those who hold is not buys but the departure of the CEO and that TJ retains his holding. But mistakes of the past and the bleak outlook , for me, at least for now , is to be out. I will watch them closely and hope to come back if for no other reason my wife & Iike their gear.

Hope I’m not wasting too much of your time. Maybe I broke my own rules and let emotion and misguided faith get the better of me. Maybe at 33p i thought christ on a bike and started to sweat and listened in hope to those who felt it would bounce as couldn’t stomach an even bigger loss regretting ignoring my own advice to sell and not hold at 65p. So maybe at 43.27p in light of the economic stats and concerns about the bellweather M&S and the fact the accumulating buys (which someone was willing to sell) were not shifting the price I got out at 56% loss but what’s 6% between friends. Like I say all a bit emotional and you get my drift lesson learned now watch the price rocket :)

Shouldn’t have ignored my instincts and own advice on the 2nd Feb - could have saved myself 20p ps and averaging down? Well I’d rather not dwell on that. No doubt they’ll rally and I’ll get out the hair shirt once again.

Bullet fired today and sold at 50% loss . Ouch. I have a stop loss on all my holdings at 50% with the expectation it would never be invoked but if it was it would remove temptation / emotional attachment to hang in there. Had been hovering very close to the limit so hardly a surprise and news today the economy grew at a woeful rate and in March was actually negative it hardly bodes well . With M&S due to announce expected poor results its not looking good for retail sector.

Joules is a strong brand and many customers will be protected from cost of living crisis but its also
aspirational and those shoppers will be affected and that in my opinion will hamper revenue growth.

Also, who will be buying garden furniture this year ? Big mistake expanding with hindsight and limits investment in core business. Liquidity is a major issue and they are ripe for a RI or takeover at a song.

I will monitor closely and maybe reinvest when /if the current trends are at least lulled . Painful .

Their market is much wider than ‘ladies of a certain age’ . Just need to visit one of their stores Or when they start up again they’re marquees at countryside events. They also have a menswear section that matches the likes of Crew Clothing And quality that matches the likes of Ralph Luaren and more Understated that brand’s burgeoning nouveau Riche aspirations in my opinion. Also at the end of last summer they bought a quality garden furniture store Which Obviously didn’t have the opportunity to show its full potential.

However what does concern me is that the CEO with a background in Asda and budget line George clothing doesn’t appreciate or understand the brands target customer base. One of the most damaging aspects of the situation which needs to be recovered from and confidence returned to the consumer is their Online offering Which faltered badly up to the run in to Christmas prior to was strong.

The increase in debt and decline in headroom in my opinion shows that the business has been badly run and not that believable that omicron caused a loss in footfall during the Christmas and January period and even so their Online offering should have more than covered this.

I am now down 50% on the stock Which in my normal strategy Would result in me bailing out. However in this case I do believe they have a strong brand and if the pressure on the CEO results in his resignation then recovery is likely and so for the time being I will take the risk and hold But will not Average down like some.

Apologies for the bad punctuation and grammar but that’s the joys of dictating which is quicker than my thick fingers!

I would say its quite possible , probable in fact to have a holding in Tui at zero cost. In 2020 you could have bought at 135p and sold half your holding later in the year at 290p .
Plenty of wriggle room to make 100% and then sell half your holding as a bet to nothing. In Jan 21 you use the remaining half of your holding to take up the generous rights and you have a holding under 100p per share.

Mary , when do you think dividends will return ? With €5bn state funding to repay I doubt very much The German taxpayer will be happy for the company to start paying a dividend to shareholders when they effectively saved their skins. In my opinion Tui will not be paying a dividend within next 5yrs if then And even if their Performance returns to pre-pandemic levels profit will be significantly impacted with paying down debt and interest payments.

That said I will continue to hold the share long-term but with more reserved expectations - 350p is I feel a realistic target by end of 2022 with a crippling but blue chip debt to service & no prospect of a dividend certainly not within 2 years and perhaps more importantly after 2 rights issue a significant dilution of share holdings that will need years of buy backs to get anywhere near 2019 levels or even half the SP back then.

Definitely worth holding but accepting the road to recovery will be long slog and the uptick will flatten out . For me its a stock I expect to be put on the back burner greatly reducing my diligence since I took a punt after the first wave - seems like another age.

Manage expectations - inflation , 6m potentially at risk of being unable to pay fuel bills come April & bad enough now. Hols will take off but a lot of voucher holders that are essentially debt repayments and the 5bn of state funding is somewhat of an issue and finally the dilution of the share price after 2 RIs the price is unlikely to literally fly. I’ll be happy to see it consolidate around 300p until start of summer season and then start of Winter 22 350p -400p thereafter, that’ll be it as they start paying down the German tax payers.

The captain has switched on the seat belt signs, buckle up its just a bit of turbulence .

Some unrealistic SP forecasts are put usually put forward without reference to the fact TUI are a very Different beast than they were at the start of the pandemic or prior to the first rights issue.

Personally I think 350p is more realistic by the end of Summer 2022. They are laden with debt of a level would make them effectively bust if is wasn’t for state funding but it still needs to be repaid with interest and that alone will suppress the SP.

Winter bookings are strong and anecdotally their dreamliners have Recently flown to Lanzarote Dominican republic with almost full capacity just a few seats short. There is also been a big pick up in flights to Cancun both from UK and EU. Summer bookings are strong but we need to be wary Of how many of these holidays are customers Using the vouchers following cancelled bookings over the last two years.

The good news is that Tui Have developed the digital platform and reduce costs in the past two years and experts like Simon Calder have strongly recommended holidaymakers book packages which is obviously good news.

I Took my position in the company in October 2020 at 293p And have been particularly advantaged by the generous rights issue last January and have topped up at various times over the past year between 210p and 230p. So personally I am in a good position but don’t have wild expectations that the share price will exceed my expectations as mentioned above. We certainly won’t be seeing the share price pre-pandemic for years to come if at all and certainly no Dividend until at least the German government/taxpayer has been repaid.

The outlook is still good but not as wild as some suggest and the same applies to EZY who have sold and leased back a lot of their fleet. IAG is the worse proposition of all airlines Given their business model is very much geared to the business class traveller and therefore they have to overcome the new normal of Video meetings which given their relative success businesses will be reluctant to return to the old ways of sending their middle managers to unnecessarily press the flesh That usually mounted to not much more than a jolly. Late 2020 they were a good purchase around £1 but I recently sold at 170p . Time will tell if that was wise but I really do think they have a long way back. Tui though for me remain a long term hold even though I expect some turbulence but without the need for a sick bag.

Multiples of SP. Whopping increase? Given the level of debt Tui has accrued over past 2 years imo those type of expectations are very unlikely this side of 2030.

There’ll be no dividend for more than a few years as the debt will need to be repaid to German taxpayers. Tui will recover but 950p SP pre pandemic is unrealistic in a few years . For me a good result in a few years would be 475-500p . We shouldn’t lose sight that without state support Tui would have gone under and though they have turned the corner there’s a very long road ahead .

£3.50 ? Yes

First target is to see the SP recover to its TERP. If things continue as they are then see no reason (based on what we know) for the price to reach that level within next few weeks. I have a neighbour who flies for Tui and they said the demand on the Dreamliner fleet is increasing with long haul flights such as Cancun, Dom Republic and other popular shorter haul winter destinations such a Canaries and Cape Verde. Add in the outlook for demand of Summer hols is likely to pick up it augurs well.

Imo Covid is no longer the No. 1 risk , its the rising cost of living , tax hikes , fuel prices etc and the economic suicide of Brexit that will fuel prospect of stagflation .

Not quite everything is up maybe just your holdings
:)

All those Covid stocks that has seen many PI’s get burned by following the crowd without looking at long term prospects of companies maintaining such upsurges are being hammered again . There in lies the story of why Tui and other travel & leisure stocks are rallying and unlike Covid stocks they have proven successful business models to return as the world recovers and covid burns itself out.
ODX - 9%
NCYT - 9%
ABDX - 5%
AVCT - 9%