Member Info for Justathought

Results from the Itumbula West-1 well achieved a high helium flow to the surface, with concentrations reaching up to 4.7%, a figure nearly nine thousand times above background levels. Additionally, hydrogen was detected at a concentration of 2.2%, significantly surpassing background levels as well.

Https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/pg/article-standard/28/2/petgeo2021-029/610750/The-principles-of-helium-exploration

Also said in the RNS:

Flowing helium to surface in such high concentrations is a huge milestone for the Company and we will now fully evaluate these results and focus on advancing this project in the most effective way possible; one that will aim to achieve commerciality at the earliest opportunity.

2.3p is my guess, who would want to be out after all the historic information and CEO confirmation of a world class flowing well.

I am not missing this opportunity.

I tried to make calculations though I picked up on historical link and got my percentages wrong.

World class, this could go to 40p quite easily in a very short space of time.

Production in 2025 that is the aim of the Tanzanian goverment, this is going to be fast tracked.

Anyway I’m guessing 2.3p close.

No only have my eyes on 2 at moment this and Delvic will take a look

no just got back into share dealing again after a long time when my last hit was cove energy, a long time ago and was usually on the old iii board.

been watching this for a long time now and took the plunge last week. lot of ****e on here though a lot of people looking for a bit of reality.

just a case of waiting for those numbers to see where we are at, any noise of jv and we know they are good.

Agree nothing as changed and all the information is available to date.

I like to see a lookahead on possible earnings and how much gas we would need per day to make X amount and impact it could have on share price.

I calculate profits after 75% to Tanzanian Goverment, 50% of remaining 25% for Joint Venture and 25% Tax on remaining 12.1/2% leaving us with 9.375% profit on sales.

$450 per thousand cubic feet as been quoted that china pay. So 9.375% and a profit of $42.18 per every thousand cubic feet.

1 million cubic feet is 1,000 x $450. so 9.375% and a profit of $42,187.50

10 million cubic feet profit $421, 875

100 million cubic feet profit 4.2187 million

That's 273,000 cubic feet per day, not impossible with P50 estimates of 138 Billion cubic feet and multiple wells to drill.

If this is the world class play and if we do have 138Billion cubic feet in place it would be the largest find in the world. I am expecting it to be just that with all information to date.

I would like to think of the largest play in the world at least having a 10% of the 8Billion cubic feet required yearly which is going up yearly.

8 x 100 million would be a nice $42, 180,000 profit.

Are we waiting for a share price which encapsulates that profit as this price will be way higher or a takeover at what price.

Lets wait for the updates and see if Tanzania as the biggest Helium reserves in the world as we have all been informed.

Another positive update from company, JV , production routes, production contract and any further details of this world class discovery and we are out of this range for good. I cant remember any company ever mentioning world class discovery for the well to be a dud.

You all must know the calculations and possible share price which can be achieved on various daily production quantities and potential contracts less you would not be here.

So the numbers we are looking for:

Helium sells internationally anything from $480 per mcf (mcf = a thousand cubic feet) to $650 which I observed a member of this BB advised on a recent contract. Lets do the calculations on basis of $500 per thousand cubic feet.

Tanzanian Government production contract recently took 75% in an oil and gas discovery, we will use minus 75%.

Joint Venture – Payment of Pipeline and Process & Distribution costs – 50% of remaining 25% leaving HE1 with 12.1/2% of discovery, lets say 10% remaining after payroll.

So if HE1 sell 1 million cubic feet @ $500 per thousand cubic feet with 10% profits ($50) they will receive $50,000

6.2 Billion cubic feet used every year, lets do the figures if HE1 can sell 1% of this amount which is 62 million cubic feet of gas total £3,100.000, 10% being $31 million per year.

Lets not forget 25% country tax on profits, so based on 10% (620 million cubic feet sold per year) after tax HE1 profit is $23,250,000

Flow to look at needs to be 1.69 million cubic feet per day to supply 10%. very doable when a well is being called a game changer and I am expecting more and a muti billion find.

Tanzania is a country ready to export which they have been doing for 50 years.

The above calculations are against the worst case scenario, some contracts the government issue are 50%-50% and HE1 with university`s found the Helium reported in 2016.

If the above scenario is the case, what price the sp on earnings?

2.2p to sell & 2.32p to buy

starting to move

This share will advise billions of cubic feet with them saying a world find and next doors finds of over 200 million cubic feet. Helium sells in thousand cubic feet which is (mcf) and a billion is a 10 thousand 10 thousands and at circular $500 per mcf selling a million cf is worth 500 million dollars (almost 10 times market cap) so a billion is worth wow the numbers. You have to address probably 50-75% of the find will go to the Tanzanian Goverment then after process costs need to establish actual gain and then pay 25% tax to Tanzanian goverment ball park figure 1 x mcf $500 minus let’s say 50% to Tanzanian goverment = $250 - 50% process and export costs = $125 then 20% tax leaves profit of $100 so $100 million per 1 million. Cubic feet of gas sold. think it is 6,700 million required each year so even selling 3 million cubic feet (very low percentage of world requirements) we would make $300 million each year. Tanzanian goverment are on course to develop LNG for export in 2025 and it is not a far distance to plug into and with little cost or cost a joint venture would undertake for a % of our profit. Let’s say 50% which is still $150 million per year profit, double the market cap. That is the worst case scenario. Only one point to make is that Tanzania is on the East coast of Africa and although well developed African country though still as poverty and still as issues with political insurgents though not as bad as the neighbours Mozambique as yet. That’s what I have gained over the last few months and the CEO announcement made me take the plunge on this one. The figures are probably against us and will probably pick up more and other company’s will be looking at this and might make a bid, market cap against profit or future profit, let’s see 15 x SP on production, anyone else come up with any figures?