Member Info for Just_My_Opinions

The bulk of the tariffs are against China mate. China is the big prize. But not the EU is backing down, there's a good chance China will too as they won't look like they're losing face.

The EU was the least likely I thought.

I must admit, the EU was the last opponent I thought would cave in. But he did attack Germany directly with the 20 to 25% tariffs mentioned for their cars.

Now Juncker is offering to buy soya beans, when china stopped buying them...

But will Trump haters even acknowledge he's done well here? North Korea is dismantling their missile sites... the news was talking about it yesterday.

He could find the cure for cancer and still the lefties wouldn't acknowledge it haha

Juncker has just said he is open to talks to prevent a trade war... The S&P 500 jumped up a bit on that. You might get some positive moves now.

The EU are normally the stubborn ones as we've seen, they must be scared due to Brexit and don't want to have to deal with the USA too.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trade-eu/trump-juncker-voice-desire-to-reduce-tariffs-trade-tensions-idUSKBN1KF1C3

And I know Mogg is not front bench before someone points that out

Agreed, I honestly can't think of a single front bench MP that would make a good PM. Even Rees Mogg has said he supports the Prime Minister. The second he said that he went down in my estimations.

Many of the Dow and S&P 500 also not looking cheap. Not enough overvalued yet admittedly, but not at good discounts. Which is why I don't think there's a hell of a lot of upside before the next crash..

But again, if the trade war resolves itself I think it will be completely different.

Hopefully the ring fencing of retail and investment banks has protected against this. Unless they've found a way round it.

The debt in Western countries has increased far higher than it was in 2007/2008. That goes for both consumer debt and government debt.

And there's signs that the banks have not fully learned their lesson. They're still dealing in Collateralized debt obligations and complex financial derivatives. I need to look for signs of the retail banks working with the investment banks with this, because that's what caused 2008.

They loaned money to people who were poor credit risks, packaged that debt up as investment products and sold them to investors. A lot of the investors insured them against default and that's what nearly crashed the whole system.

All it takes is for banks to tighten up lending and the Music stops.

The FTSE could do another 10 to 15% before commencing it's decent, no one knows exactly when the top is. But valuations are pretty high for most of the FTSE.

Going through SimplyWall.st and checking the valuations individually, there's not many stocks at a significant discount to future cash flow. The market might have some energy left yet to go a bit higher, but it's definitely not being seen as very cheap at the moment.

Everything I've said could be completely wrong though if somehow this trade war miraculously resolves itself. The EU only has about $150 Billion deficit with the USA.

China's is in excess of $500 Billion... but Trump was talking about putting 20 to 25% tariffs on EU cars. It would probably take Juncker agreeing to talk to the EU member states to try and get them to relax tariffs on US cars for the market to view developments with the EU as positive.

But the EU is notoriously hard for any country outside the EU to deal with. They are very protectionist. I personally think that will be their downfall... but if you look at Canada they took 7 years to agree a trade deal. I would be very surprised if the EU all come together rapidly to resolve the trade deficit with the USA.

If they do that will be a big achievement for Trump.

record low unemployment*

We've got an ongoing trade war with no side showing any signs of backing down. We've got American debt at $21 Trillion with multiple massive trade deficits. We've got an end to Quantitative easing, the only reason the entire banking system didn't collapse completely. And the main reason stocks were able to rise.

We have nearly full employment in the USA, record unemployment in the UK... where is the growth going to come from..

We'll have a bit of ranging, maybe even one last push to double top over the next 6 months... then a massive crash lasting nearly 2 years with many bounces along the way luring people into a false sense of security.

ScaleyBack oh look a 7 post wonder with zero reputation comes on here to tell us all about idiots. Feel free to ignore me, that's what it's there for.

I'll take that on board, I have been going on rants. I'm sick to death of the absolutely treachery against democracy in this country... Hence the rants. I've been saying Treason May long before she released her Remain dressed as Brexit plan at Chequers. And long before she went over to Germany to discuss it with Merkel before her own country.

I consider Brexit and Western Politics the number one mover of stock prices right now. It's Right wing verses Left Wing politics right now. Even today, Trump voted in because American's were sick to death of the leftist establishment forcing globalisation on them... Trump talking about tariffs. The only reason he exists as president is because of the current state of affairs with politics.

His meeting with Juncker today is the number one reason for profit taking today. He's not backing down with the tariffs, has been aggressive about China attacking US Farm trade and wants to continue as is. All linked to politics.

But I agree, I've been going on rants... genuinley angry with the whole lot of it. i'm seeing a side to humanity I'm disgusted with to be honest. I'll calm it down for a bit... wasting too much time.

Literally not a single person has mentioned a race here. Not has a single person apart from OmeDome mentioned anything remotely constituting violence.

He said those who support the right wing should have been finished off with the Nazi's. The Nazi's were genocidal maniacs, scumbags. The murdered and experiment on children ffs. The Right wing "IS NOT" the same as Nazi's... Nazism is about as extreme as it gets. Real Nazi's openly blame Jewish people for all the bad stuff happening in the world.... not a single person on here has mentioned the Jews at all, well I have and I support them. I think they're surrounded by absolutely barbarians that would love to destroy Israel.

Iran's previous president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has said so in the past.

Idiots like OmeDome trying to label people Nazi's for having a different political viewpoint is what's wrong with this country. Anyone who agrees with what the Nazi's did is a vile sub human scumbag as far as I'm concerned.

Long live Israel, and Long live the Jewish people. I challenge OmeDome to say the same, I bet he can't.

So basically we'll need to wait on not this General Election, but the following one for the country to reject both parties wholesale as Labour will be handed victory by accident.

If there's a Hard Brexit... fully leaving the EU (which looks very unlikely now)... the Conservatives could win if they get rid of Treason May and her sycophantic cabinet, and replace it with a brexiteer PM and Cabinet.

That's the only way I see the Conservatives winning the Next General Election. Because a full Brexit is not what Treason May wants, so if it happens it's not what she pushed forward.

Labour, the SNP and possibly the Lib Dems will form a coalition or minority government.

Neither Labour nor the Conservatives will have an overall majority. Labour will take more seats than the Conservatives without the slightest doubt due to the betrayal of the Brexit vote.

UKIP will win a small number of seats, but the support for UKIP will be enough to stop the Conservatives winning the marginal seats they hold only by a small number of votes, this is what will cause the Conservatives to lose the next election.

Labour will then get in, ramp up immigration massively, and those who lacked the courage to vote a right wing party will leave the Conservatives in their droves, as will the working class who will eventually realise Labour is not for them, but for the minorities....

That will usher in the right wing. That's my guess, all based on current polling and from reading the opinions of hundreds of leave voters.

If you use decimals this is easier to understand, Corbyn is the favourite to be next Prime Minister.

https://drive.google.com/file/d/152eC75R3EPs3nEUWXYVxGtawG8SRCSbk/view?usp=sharing

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-prime-minister

The bookies think Corbyn is the next PM.

He's right LastCall... Lloyds gap is at 62.29 (now closed) RBS gap is at 242p (not closed yet)

The short term traders are taking profits on the unexpected Gap ups as Trump is about to meet Juncker in Washington over trade tariffs.