Member Info for Just_My_Opinions

Snige,

The USA is the biggest economy in the world. China is the 2nd biggest economy in the world. We can consider the EU as the second biggest economy in the world, but it's not a country. It's a collection of countries.

Anyway.. China's growth is obviously all to do with the West outsourcing production and manufacturing of goods to China. What the West giveth, the West can taketh away.

A Nationalist is now the President of the United States. Someone who clearly won't hesitate to employ protectionist measures to take back what was given to China at least to even the playing field and eliminate the trade deficit. So far he has signified his intentions to fix this, not to dominate China.

The trade deficit is firmly in American's favour (whether you like the USA or Trump or not) this is a fact, well in excess of half a Trillion dollars is the deficit between China and America with America being the current loser (not China) China's leadership do not have to worry about free and fair democratic elections. They have signified their intentions in that they will fight to the bitter end in a trade war between the USA and China.

Trump won't back down either, he's used to taking his early businesses to Bankruptcy and then taking them on to massive success. He will go toe to toe with China and win, I'e got no doubt about it.

So we're at a turning point. Either China backs down, or Trump pushes ahead with constant tariffs until someone eventually emerges as the victor. My money is on the USA winning, but not without a very big and protracted fight.

The term "Populist" is used by Leftists to label people as if it's a here to day, gone tomorrow situation. These populists as you label them are populists because they are popular. They will eventually leave power, but not until they are no longer popular.

As Buffet says "We simply attempt to be fearful when others are greedy and to be greedy only when others are fearful"

Do you think most people are fearful at this present time? I think most people are unsure, and with experience I have learned that uncertainty usually means a sell off. How long that takes I haven't a clue, but realistically and without the temptation of succumbing to lack of patience.. most stocks don't look like a bargain.

Ok... I'll give my opinion on the markets. Most stocks are literally fair value, overvalued or not at significant discounts to future cash flow projected over 5 years. Take a cheap membership to SimplyWall.st go through each and every one of the FTSE 100 stocks and you will see that. They take their financial data directly from S&P Capital IQ, which is part of the S&P Global Inc occasionally their GUI (Graphical User Interface) will have some errors like stating a company is an established dividend payer when it may have stopped the dividend. But the underlying calculations are in line with professional standards, if you look at the way they calculate you will see that.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S%26P_Global

LLOY is actually showing as undervalued based on Discount to future cash flow. In an ideal market where sentiment of the general market is to the upside, no more PPI payouts and the hysteria over Brexit is gone... LLOY is undervalued. This doesn’t mean it will rise, no one has a crystal ball as to the aforementioned factors, apart from PPI that obviously has a deadline. But in simple mathematical terms LLOY is undervalued and is showing a significant discount to future cashflow. Remember, prior to the HBOS back door deals, Lloyds was a very strong bank when the legacy issues are gone this will come through again.

Going back to most stocks being fair valued, overvalued or not at significant discounts to future cash flow. This doesn't mean there will be a crash, absolutely no one knows when that will come or what the reason for it will be. We can all speculate on what might or might not cause a crash. And some of us might be right. But crashes rarely happen quickly... they tend to take in excess of a year to find their floor. Take the 2008 crash as an example it took well over a year to find it's eventual floor. Time and time again people were suckered in thinking this must be the floor, the dead cat bounces happened and then the downtrend resumed.
Most people don't have the knowledge, nor the time to analyse each and every major stock properly. I'm normally a technical trader, using technical analysis for shorter/medium term profits so I don't profess to be an expert in fundamental analysis. But SimplyWall.st seems to be a good point of reference (not always but in general) for people manually picking their own stocks to quickly gauge the investment opportunity (or lack of).

The found the car, that's a weapon clearly.

Yeah looks like it...

http://www.lbc.co.uk//news/london/central/westminster-city/dramatic-cctv-westminster-crash-terror-incident/

Well one thing the USD run shows you is... the market thinks Trump is right and is going to win.

These are good developments, and strengthen the companies ability to pay the dividend. But what is LLOY's BOD doing to increase organic growth?

I do, but it;s not quite the same as having an equal vote... when the power of your vote is determined by how deep your pockets are to be able to buy the facility to cast more votes.

LTI,

Who did the institutional investors? Not the little guy on here evidently.

Revenue's not increasing, so no doubt it'll be artificial growth. Have they had less impairments? Sold off some businesses? Things like that

I don't like disingenuous CEO's artificially raising the EPS by buying back stocks, and using that to pretend they have increased performance and hence unfairly justify their massive bonuses.

It's basically a legal type of fraud, as it results in someone gaining financially in a big way, without increasing fundamental significantly.

Yeah well done UBS in helping the CEO artificially present higher EPS figures by having less shares in circulation... well done in helping him to continue to use LLOY as an ATM machine.

Oh it's a dependable income stock I agree. Growth, depends on the state of the economy in general and whether or not interest rates increase neither of which have anything to do with buy backs.

And the longer it takes to grow before it gets to the sell targets of most people, the more time there is to admit more shares to the register.

Yet the share price went down (again). Flogging a dead horse comes to mind. :-)

No it wouldn't, not if the company is not growing financially and investor demand is not high enough to raise the price.

If the share price keeps going down because shareholders don't think LLOY is a good growth prospect then the net result will be a mediocre dividend and both the buy back and dividend cancelled our by capital depreciation.

Where is it going? Not a clue just saying what I see. I know I'm not buying whilst Trump is taking back some of that trade deficit back.

What you could see though is USA demand for copper increasing whilst China goes down (depending on how the trade war develops)

It's near past resistance, sometimes resistance becomes support. And there's some consolidation in the $2.50's... so if it doesn't bounce it might range for a while.

If it falls through that, then the market will be pricing in major Copper demand weakness.

Agreed on the Deluded Gordon, but not on the End Of. If they kept their worshiping of a invisible man in the Sky to themselves then who am I to comment on their delusions.

But when they try to force their worship of said invisible man in the Sky on others who don't want it... that's a different story. There's different levels of forcing too... some people just speak, I can handle that. Jaw jaw over war war.... but there are others who want to commit acts of violence to force their beliefs on others... like what we've seen today.

Fair point Richard