Member Info for Just_My_Opinions

Quite a few of the UK Smaller Companies investment trusts 10 bagged for their bottoms on the last major crash in 2008.

Yeah just in cash mate waiting for calamity. Even if the market surprises and goes up 10 - 15% I'll wait for the big one, then start buying. I'm not going to trade this time, going to buy investment trusts, reinvest the dividend and leave it there. I need to take the wife to work and kid to school when the schools start back up, then pick him up at 3, plus take the dog a walk etc... not got time for sitting in front of the screen trading.

Besides investing in UK smaller companies investment trusts, no doubt they out perform me over the long term.

hahaha Picket maybe you should pay them the other 3% they want to strike mate... they probably only said they wanted 5% so they'd get 2 - 3%... most people aim higher than they think is realistic.

What the West giveth, the West can taketh away... China got richer off the back of Western nations outsourcing production and manufacturing to China. The world's biggest economy has just signaled that unless the trade deficit balances they will be doing everything possible to take back what they gave.

What could possibly go wrong? :-P

Most analysts put a big question mark over Chinese figures. And that Debt to GDP is sitting at over 250%... that will pop at some point.

They don't want to go up due to Brexit, Global trade war etc

But they don't want to go down much either until the data comes through to show growth is going bye bye.

I suggest people buy themselves a tin of paint... paint their wall and watch it dry... it would be far more entertaining than LLOY's share price movements.

Finally someone with common sense. How anyone can argue that buybacks are preferable to cash in their trading account is just stupid

Politics is the biggest driver of the market right now.

Well he would say that wouldn't he... the EPS is likely to go up and various other financial metrics, even if there is no improvement in fundamental performance.

Less shares in circulation means less shares to divide performance by. It feathers his nest, not shareholders nests.

It doesn't hurt shareholders, but it helps them a lot less than putting the money straight into their trading account in the form of a Special Dividend. It's a better option for the board to make themselves look better, than it is for shareholders.

Ok I;ll rephrase it slightly... Buy Backs don't benefit shareholders much. Certainly not in the short term that's for sure. But money in their account instead is indisputable... it's all designed to make CEO's look better than they actually are.

Here's a good example of EU Stupidity actually affecting people badly.

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/mortgages/2018/05/Regulator-pledges-to-help-mortgage-prisoners

less shares in circulation* means higher EPS

LTI,

Just because I don't agree with you doesn't mean I don't understand it. Two very different things. If there was a polling facility here with (A) Happy with Buybacks. (B) I'd rather have the cash as a special dividend.... I guarantee you the vast majority of people would rather have the cash in their trading account.

Buy Backs are what companies do to artificially make their next report look better than it otherwise would be. It artificially increases the Earnings Per Share because there's less earnings in circulation. A donkey could see that given the incredibly boring performance of LLOY over many many months it would have been better to put some money in shareholders pockets.

Cause lets face it, this is an income stock for the equity income funds and pensions... the growth is non existent.

Lets call a spade a spade. Lloyds Growth is slow as treacle. It's not expected to grow much next year either, the CEO has to show he's producing results, so if he takes millions of shares out of circulation the EPS (Earnings Per Share goes up) as there's less shares in circulation.

Buy backs don't benefit shareholders... they get drowned in all the daily transactions. It would have been far better to pay a special dividend for all these shareholders watching LLOY's the Tortoise wading through treacle.

"Strange thing for Trump to do"

Smart thing for Trump to do, midterms coming up.. America is strong Christian, doing all that for a pastor will send a strong message to American Christians, that the Trump administration is on their side.

Apart from that Turkey is ruled by a Brutal despotic Islamic dictator who was even buying oil off ISIS during their occupation of Northern Syria. The Russians bombed an ISIS oil convoy and posted pics of it.. it was on it's way to Turkey during ISIS occupation.

We were growing the fastest in the G7 for ages, now they take over. We will take over again. It's all peaks and toughs.

A crash usually takes over a year... even the 2007/2008 crash took this long to find it's floor. Hardly anyone ever gets in at the extreme bottom, or out at the extreme top, and if they do it's just luck.

But for me...

1. Most stocks are either over values, fairly valued or not at big discounts to future cash flow.
2. USA debt is sky high, higher than it was at the last major crash.
3. Debt in many EU countries is the same.
4. China's debt to GDP is insane.

Something at some point is going to give. I'm not predicting when, but I'm not enticed into buying in a big way at the moment either. I've placed a few in/out trades since the start of the year, but for the most part I've been 100% cash.

I've been in 100% cash for months, and so far I've been right. The FTSE for example has barely moved from where it was at the start of the year. Even if it goes up another 10 to 15% the upside is limited compared to the downside on the next major crash.

All over the Western World Left and Right wing politics is clashing, there is real division. Debt is far higher in the USA than it was in 2008. China's Debt to GDP is over 250%. 7 of the 28 EU member states have voted in Anti-Immigrant Right Wing governments, Sweden might be next in September with the "Social Democrats", they want an In/Out EU referendum too.

There are so many things starting to add up. When the crash will come is anyone's guess, the can could be kicked along the road for a bit. But the next crash (not correction) the next times there's an actual crash I think it will rival the 1930's.

And there global population is 252% bigger than it was in 1930