RE: The long game14 Nov 2016 19:52
With the Indian PM putting a deadline on all 500 Rupee and 1000 Rupee notes in circulation being paid into the bank by the 30/12/2016, there is a rush to put the money in the bank or lose it's entire value. Some very rich people (I know some) are literally burning some of their cash as they don't want to put it in the bank as the Tax Authorities may try to audit them going years back.
The negative effect on this is, The Gold Sellers have started refusing 500 and 1000 Rupee notes when people try to purchase Gold to try and get round having to pay them into the bank.
I lived in India for 2 years... let me tell you something. Black money is rife. In India there is White money and Black money... nothing to do with colours of skin.
We'll use UK money to make this easier...
If someone is selling a house in India, it may have a real value of £500,000. But it will go through officially as a £375,000 sale.
So £375,000 will go to the bank (White Money). And £125,000 will turn up in holdalls, or a suitcase in Rupees, cash money. (Black Money)
The Black money either gets kept as cash, used to buy more property or gold or another asset.
The Indian government know this as it happens in more than just property it's rife all over the country... everyone I know in India does it. You simply can not buy a house in India in a major city without dealing in Black and White money.
It's done with bigger denominations, because turning up at a house with say £125,000 to buy it in lower notes would probably involve taking a wheel barrow, and take ages to count. So by putting a deadline on all 500 and 1000 rupee notes being paid into the bank, and after that deadline making them worthless... creates a gigantic windfall for the Indian authorities.
When it goes in the bank, the tax authorities can then see "everything". They will then tax people accordingly, and most likely go back previous years to audit these people properly... because everyone suddenly depositing big sums of money means everyone suddenly didn't just get luck that year.
Like HMRC, if you don't fill out your tax return...and you run a business they will send you an estimate on what they expect you to have made over previous years and try to claw it back.
I know this as my friend who runs a car repair business had that very thing happen to him, and he had to go to an accounted to sort things.
So back to the main point....
Gold sellers aren't accepting the big notes, so there's a good chance gold sales will either stagnate or drop due to there being less "Black Money" in circulation to buy the gold in India.