Just pondering a few ideas >>>30 Jan 2021 10:26
So the ii's and funds have joined the party @ 22p then 38p and latterly 29p none seem unduly concerned and nor should they be. Thirty eight pence is the sp valuation based on a one billion dollar sale !! Ponder that for a second That means we become valued @ a measly price of around 1.8/ 1.9 billion then we have an sp of 64p.!
In the very unlikely event that a sale of some form did not take place jv dividends have been muted @ 25p to 40p a share! If mining ourselves became the go to option how long do you think it would take for the company to be worth 1.8 billion ??
We currently have a negative ebit enterprise value of -10% in context that is .... "As of Jan. 2020, the average EV/EBITDA for the S&P 500 was 14.20. As a general guideline, an EV/EBITDA value below 10 is commonly interpreted as healthy and above average by analysts and investors." PLUS 10 IS HEALTHY lower numbers are healthier AND - negative enterprise values are better still and we are minus 10 !!!!
Next without a sale we must mine one way or another, enter the jv ! some of the " offers" reported in the rns will have been jv offers and with what we have in the ground and relative low cost of ramping up production, awesome local infrastructure and processing and low extraction costs this makes any jv very lucrative. Pure guess work but id say each 10% of what we have would be easily be worth a billion or 38p, no big player is going to want less than 40% ergo £1.50 and we retain 40 or 50% on a free rise is my guess! The minute that offer is made we re rate to over £1 on opening !
Next the current sp and my thoughts... From the ii and fund point of view way too many shares are in private hands !! By now most companies would have diluted the small investor into an also ran position! yeah we make a few quid but 90% of the shares bought low ( sub 1p ) are in the "right hands" . They want this because come sale day the shear volume of potential sellers could cause a few problems and that why i think we will rise as we close in on the deal.
Right now the funds et all are happy to accumulate h3ll blackrock just made a billion in a day... "Nine investors, including large fund-running institutions like Fidelity FMR and BlackRock (BLK) (sic) watched the value of their GameStop holdings soar more than $1 billion."
The problem is while cheap shares are nice they also want to wrest a lot of share from the " wrong hands" the best way to do this once they are loaded up is to allow and promote a rise. Nervous investors having seen large paper losses will to a degree " top slice" and these too will be hoovered up. Also a price rise allows a profit and a good perch from which to " hedge" their position so they cannot lose whatever the outcome !
In short a sale cannot be feasibly bellow $5 billion or there will be protests! so sp of £1.90 ! if no sale happens a jv will cost the entrant $4 bill for max 50% so £1.52 and the sp WILL rise before the sale!! soon as the bigs want it too !!!