Member Info for JSB1989

Dallo - thanks for the calculations. The vultures must be circling given the Karuna payment is coming in the near term and cash will sit significantly higher than the market cap and the remaining assets have massive potential and value within them.

It makes no sense at all Dallo. I’m very interested to see how this plays out.

The buybacks are also capable (when the volumes are high enough) of taking 1 million shares out of circulation every two weeks and tightening the free float day by day.

Dallo - thanks for your corrections and answers to my questions.

This will be a very interesting year ahead to see how it plays out.

I wouldn’t be surprised to see a deal with LYT-100 this year. P2 due in Q4. A deal post P2 would be very lucrative. Data showing better tolerability and long durations compared to Esbriet.

Dallo - thanks for your analysis on the situation. It’s been very helpful. The closure of the deal is dependant on FDA approval which will happen by September at the latest but I would anticipate this could be earlier. BMS plan to launch immediately in H2 of this year. The funds from the sale and the approval milestone should come at a similar time. Do you happen to know how much the approval milestone is for Puretech?

Other things to note are that BMS will want to clear up the royalties payments before finalising the sale. They won’t want to pay $14 billion for others to skim off them until 2039! Puretech’s 2% over $2 billion is extremely lucrative given that analysts have Karuna hitting $6 billion by peak sales in 2030 which would generate $80 million per annum. I’m wondering if they might buy Puretech’s 2% out in a discount lump sum? $200 million? That would be a significant discount for BMS but also provide Puretech with cash up front.

Cash by year end with just Karuna successfully closing and all milestones paid out with have Puretech at around $1 billion (£785 million) or £2.90 per share.

That’s excluding any further deals on the pipeline or IPO’s on Vedanta, Seaport etc.

I’m bullish on biotech this year and think it will see a resurgence. I’m aligned with the other contributors that Puretech is grossly undervalued and I don’t think it’s out of the question that we see the share price at £5 in 2024.

I purchased just short of 20,000 on Friday AM at 199p. I've watched Puretech for a long time and thought they were hugely undervalued. The BMS purchase of Karuna was the catalyst for me. It will be approved and that is a huge windfall for Puretech. The biotech sector will come back in a big way this year and vultures will circle Puretech as a takeover target.

£65 million is far too cheap. Major breakout on the charts. P3 partnership news could be anytime based on Tovey’s timescales.

If a deal were to be made with a Tier 1 pharma such as GSK, we would be looking at a significant uplift in SP!

Excellent work Sajy.

I bought at 58p and whilst not ideal, I’m not looking for 10-15% gains. This provides opportunity to accumulate before the next wave which is likely to be a result of a P3 announcement. I’d expect that to move the SP well over £1.

Noix - I have loosely followed DEST for four years having invested in other biotech companies in AIM. The recent appointment of new CEO was a huge green flag for me. Why would a hugely experienced person in Chris Tovey join a small biotech company? I think that Destiny are in deep talks with partnering on XF-73 and could be two to three months from announcing this. Chris Tovey has the experience and clout to get a very good deal. I don’t see how the SP wouldn’t be 2x and potentially much higher on this announcement.

Based on the science and the upgrades in management the downside appears to be limited and the upside could be 10-20x in two to three years.

Double digit drops so far for both MGNI and TTD on the news that Netflix are partnering with Microsoft / Xandr.

Will CVC wait for the Amobee deal to complete and then bid for the company? Interesting times. I’m pleased to know that we are still on the radar of PE.

Takeover / M&A talk in The Times this morning:

There was plenty of chatter in ad-land about Tremor International, the advertising technology provider, as the shares rose 8½p, or 2.3 per cent, to 381½p. Although most of the talk was about the group's mooted £165 million takeover of Amobee, a Californian business, last November the company said it had signed a non-disclosure agreement with a third party. Some sharp-eared dealers reckon CVC could be among private equity firms with half an eye on the situation.

I’ve been watching when the buybacks have been taking place. In March-May they were typically between 9am and 1pm before the US markets opened. Over the past few weeks it has been trending towards the end of the day as the volume traded on AIM has dried up significantly. There is no liquidity right now on AIM!

USD to GBP at 1.19 now. Sitting comfortably over £300 million cash in the bank and EV of less than £200 million.

It’s tough to hold anything right now but whilst others may perish through liabilities and lack of cash, TRMR will do just fine!

Mid August Tricky for our Q2 results. Last year it was on the 19th August.

Is this the M & A which Ofer was referring to in his Q1 results webcast?

Singtel paid $320 million for Amobee 10 years ago and then Amobee paid $310 million for Turn in 2017. That’s a lot of $$ invested by Singtel to sell for under $200 million to us.

They had the budget to buy from the two bank holidays and the Monday (first day back) so essentially three days of buybacks in one day.

The fall here in 9 sessions now sits at 200p or £310 million wiped off the company. The markets look dire and falling at the speed we saw in 2008. I can’t sell TRMR with the cash in hand and the current FCF. PE are also swarming in cash and will take us out before we return to reasonable levels.