Member Info for JRC1000

UT actually 24.90

Once again, SP frozen at 15:35.

Actual UT 26:25

Thought you were back to talking about Trump!

So potentially top end of projections in April presentation. Let's be bullish and say average price of $1,600/oz (to allow for lower 3rd party material revenue) translates to $1.15B gross. Assuming $1,000 AIC then $432M (£348M) net. P/E? SP?

MikeSE1 - I think you'll find that's exactly the point I was making in my last post, which leaves the impression that the Company is just using this as a lame excuse for not publishing on time and, perhaps, not the actual reason.

I wonder if we are being somewhat generous in the Company's interpretation of the FCA's 'strong request'. Companies are expected to publish fully audited Full Year Results within 4 months of Year End. The request clearly refers to the practice of issuing Preminary results earlier than that and also, clearly, is aimed at companies which have suffered from the fallout of Coronavirus issues. All of the FY Results should have been finalised, before the FCA request, had the Company intended issuing on time, and many companies have reported since that request.

Strange reaction from the SP given this seemingly positive news. Presumably taking this off the table also removes any reason to delay Year End RNS any longer.

Yeh, 2227 - already had all that, but just wondered if you had any view regarding how your observations of Gold and Energy prices, and Exchange Rate would impinge on those earlier predictions.

2227 - would you like to predict an AISC range ($ and/or %)?

Rusty - I'm not sure why any of the reasons you cite should affect the reporting of 2019 Full Year and 2020 Q1 Results and even Q2 guidance on likely output performance unless it's about provision for cash usage, but as the expectations involving TEMI and IRC were not recorded until after the year end then provision in 2019 results would seem inappropriate. No, there's more to this delay, but we can but wait.

An old shareholder friend of mine once mentioned something which I have come to appreciate more often than not in the world of investment - "Good news is reported fast and simply; bad news comes late and complicated". Hope he's not right this time!

Would there be merit in (and in fact would it be legally possible) for the Company to start using free cash-flow to buy its own shares and holding in treasury to satisfy the Conversion liabilities? Over 4 years at an average buying price of (say) 50p would cost £460m. Wouldn't this avoid dilution and, as it would be a transfer of shares only, wouldn't it avoid Capital Gains. Sounds too simple so can't be feasible.

Rusty. I suppose I'd better speak up as one of the 'newbies'. Remember that by definition we have entered the fray recently and therefore at quite a high price - in my case just over 17p average - and, with a 7-figure (quantity) stake I have a reasonable amount of skin in the game. In all honesty I'm less interested in the history and more in the present and future performance, although I do check out more recent RNSs to try to get a feel for imminent expectations.

However 'rose-tinted' this newby's view, I appreciate it must be tempered with the geography, potential politics, and 'shadowy' investors involved and, in all these aspects, I welcome the knowledge and thoughts of long-standing contributors to this forum.

I assume the next watershed is to be the FY Results and (possible) Q1 and H1 guidance affected by higher average Gold price, reduced hedging, lower operating costs, improved extraction rates, and Ruble/US$ ER. As you say, it would seem reasonable to assume that the signs are favourable, but there are many other factors in play with an operation like this.

Rusty- the only reference to Cash I can find is as follows.....
"....., the Company may, at its election, satisfy the Exercise Price, or Reduced Exercise Price, as applicable, in cash or in ordinary shares. Any cash consideration would be likely to be funded using balance sheet cash, new debt facilities or an equity placing."
No mention of not having enough cash to pay in full, just advising that the Company will structure the purchase in (presumably) the optimum manner to benefit the Balance Sheet and, no doubt, the 'shadowy' bodies to whom you seem to refer.

Rusty - DO we know the cash isn't available or are you just assuming this from the announcement that the deal may be only part funded in cash.

I wonder if this means that Year End Results and Forecasts will now be published beforehand.

Sorry, Drice, found it in the Q4/FY RNS.

Drice- could you point me towards the source of your average Gold price achieved by POG for 2019. Thanks in anticipation.

I presume Year End Results are due in the next few weeks if we take last year as a guide. Looking at Page 30 of the H1 Statement, I note that for H2 both the IRR and NPV will exceed the table parameters of 70 RUB:US$ FX and 1,450 US$/oz Gold Price - both of which will significantly exceed the 67 Rub and $1,300 GP used for H1 results (averages for H2 are about 72/1,495). So H2 should be very encouraging even if output remained constant although this was also projected to increase.

Q1 averages at 75/1,595, accelerating output, and much lower Oil price suggest significant upside.

"....if POG has achieved $1550 for 150k ounces in first quarter,along with Rouble depreciated and declined oil prices."

Gold Average appears to just short of $1590 for 1st Qtr, and Futures trending over $1600.