RE: Shareholder info13 Jun 2018 17:45
Hi TDT, thanks for the reply. Thought I'd just give my thoughts first as I can see it your way too.
If we take March as being the point at which things are most clear, the nominee accounts and directors holdings have, until June, increased by approximately 12.5m (+/- 1m due to natural variance of the other shareholders). In April we can see that the Riverfort shares increase the "Others" by 1.5m (+/-1 m to explain the actual 2.5m increase), at this point perhaps there was no real selling in the previous month as there is no appreciable change in the nominee accounts total. The following month again sees the total shares increase by 9m due to Riverfort, the "others" increases by 6m and the nominees increase by 3m, ie 3m sold, Crede or Riverfort? I had thought Crede like you. June shows that again Riverfort have increased the total shares by 4m, but the "others" have decreased by 5.5m ie 9.5m have been sold (in May) this corresponds to the nominees and directors increasing by 9m. In total 12.5m +/-1m sold since March. Again Crede or Riverfort? Hope that makes sense.
Unfortunately we don't actually know who is in the "others" or how many shares they own. Like you I made the assumption up until April that it looked like Crede were selling and not Riverfort. The first thing that made me question this was the fact that the shares were being dumped in a different fashion. Secondly it looked like Crede had stopped selling at 15m, perhaps they did and it was the natural variance in the"others" which made it look like they were still selling. Thirdly, if you say that Crede still have 15m, then perhaps Riverfort have managed to offload almost all their shares. Is it a coincidence that the figure or 12.5m sold is so close to their total 14m? Finally, if you were Riverfort why did you convert in batches? Why not convert the total amount each month? If you do it the way they have done, they have made approximately 30% on each batch with less risk and have kept the potential to keep the SP low for June.
Probably lost a few there, but just my own thoughts/ideas
JP