Member Info for JP2000

Findme: are you long or short BPC? How do you see the SP performing?

Slide 12 gives a very good overview of the drill targets starting at 2194m.

It’s a bit odd they were happy to make this public in 2019 but more reluctant in 2020.

https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2019/09/07132923/BPC-Oil-Barrel-Sept-2019-vFin-stick-website-sml.pdf

Re news in 6 weeks is about right

First target could be around 5-7th Jan' see video 16.33

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=aG6q3RbB1oA

The one thing that has struck me reading the Bahamas media is the murder rate is 25 times European rates, there's a lot of drugs and gangs, and very high road accident rates. Not quite the paradise some would have you believe. They desperately need to diversify the economy away from selling water melon slices to tourists arriving via gas gussling aircraft and cruise ships.

Tom, happy to listen to your views on ITV as an investment but leave politics out of this forum.

Proselenes: do you have anything positive to contribute to this forum? what is it with all the negativity

They’re drilling structure B which has 3 distinct targets each with a probability of success. I don’t know whether there are interdependences i.e. success or failure in one impacts the others or how they come up with an overall figure.

https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2017/06/07132502/appendix_c_final.pdf

'Sentiment' is everything and even defies logic (in the short term)

With Russian legal system very difficult to see what’s genuine or what’s politically motivated.

Hambro made some dumb decisions at POG but I doubt anything criminal.

That said Hambro and chums have questions to answer.

Links to the same doc for anyone thinking it could be fake.

https://www.bpcplc.com/2020/12/24/outcome-of-court-proceedings-announcement-24-december-2020/

Are we expecting a judgement today at 4pm?

BTW my recommendation was mistake, I was trying to see the numpty recommending Edgar

Unless they get a sympathetic judge the case will be thrown out before it starts as they've exceeded the 6 month limit

I concede 55k is largely covered and the underlying net cash is c$120m and the balance is strong.
But see slides 12 & 14 with indicative capex which is very substantial above 55k production. Add to that GKPs history so I can’t see them going back to $600m debt levels when the going rate for Kurdistan O&G is 9-10% pa which makes debt more expensive than equity.

https://www.gulfkeystone.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/gkp-corporate-presentation-may-2019-website-final.pdf

Whilst higher production is desirable the underlying issue with 55k or 75k production is exponential Capex requirements, they could of course borrow but the coupon will be 9-10% per year and it introduces risk to the balance sheet. So the other available option is retained earnings but that potentially impacts dividends.

This would constitute insider trading so there is probably an embargo on employees owning BPC shares although that's not to say friends & family won't.

Look at the CPR and the Doubloon Saxon drill which is very similar, the key targets are below 5000m so that's going to take at least 5-6 weeks to reach.

https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2017/06/07132506/bahamas_petroleum_company_plc_-_cpr_july_revision.pdf

Probably no surprise to anyone given a near 20% rise in 3 days, chart is now showing a golden cross so a positive uptrend.

https://pubs.usgs.gov/dds/dds-069/dds-069-m/REPORTS/69_M_CH_2.pdf

Figure 35 is very interesting showing some old drill results, Doubloon Saxon, Cayo Coco and Cay Sal gives a flavour and depth 5000-7000m, 32 API.

https://d1ssu070pg2v9i.cloudfront.net/pex/bahamas/2017/07/07132739/college_of_the_bahamas_faculty_21.02.13.pdf

This is BPCs 2013 presentation and I actually prefer it to the information on BPCs website today.

Whilst there wasn’t anything negative I was struck by what wasn’t said; 55k expansion, dividends, 73m, succession. Is JF on mogadon because I wish he’d pack his bags and go.

I am still long on GKP and bullish on prospects.

So the Bahamas has major oil storage facilities and a million barrels per day sail through its waters? And let's not forget the cruise ships and all that lovely sewage which gets flushed out to sea.

The environmentos haven't said a word about these facts