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You're basically asking are there any of the following in the pipeline; JVs, cash disposals, JORC resources, discoveries?
There's sporadic sampling/drilling which might lead to some interesting results eg Tati, Athabasca, Molopo but I don't know if they'd meet the definition of a discovery.
Need to wait & see what happens
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/54885-barrick-ceo-says-theres-scope-to-negotiate-mali-mining-code/
Karakubis is an interesting one, originally third on KAV's KCB target list but KAV's new KCB guru prioritised over the others which were significantly more advanced. Then KAV adds neighbouring licences & drill results from ENRG which I've said was a great strategic move but its eaten in the second tranche of Purebond cash. KAV have committed to 4 holes for a proof of concept and if successful then KAV really ought to prioritise because its probably the most attractive to large corporates like Rio and Sandfire (or even the Chinese). A $30-50m payday is probably 18 months away but it would be transformative and fund the Zim projects.
KAV are keeping the campaign low key at the moment, give it 4-6 weeks to see what the mood music/body language is. Drilling will continue to mid Dec, break for Christmas and resume mid Jan. I see Jan/Feb as key months with news on Hillside & Karakubis to move the share price. Can see the share price in range 0.8-1.1p over next month.
This time last year KAV were drilling PL082, it should have been a slam dunk discovery but the geophys turned out to be fiction (Hillary's firm) and the drilling campaign itself was disastrous, defo Mindea reserve team. Turney tries to bluff his way out but its clear to anyone its gone badly wrong. The spineless Board should have given Turney the boot. Peter Wynter Bee joins the Board partly to mentor Turney because he doesn't have the energy to run KAV himself. Turney (the self professed communications expert, yes really!) is basically told to tone it down and not give so much information away to the market hence KAV has said nothing of value to either the market or potential competitors. BT wants a better share price but there's nothing for speculators to latch onto. 60% of the fund raise has gone into overheads and licence acquisitions meaning less & slower drilling campaigns.
The elephant in the room is KAV has 6 weeks of drilling left before the Christmas shut down and assays take 1-3 months. The call option expires end of Jan & its unclear how KAV completes meaningful due diligence before handing over $500,000.
I don't see the share price changing until KAV produces solid results, if they can find 300-500koz @5g/tAu near surface then LTHs might get their money back.
Re KCB:
"KCB ongoing work programme to 2024
The Company has initiated a focussed data review on the Karakubis licences, which it considers to be a high priority
target. This work, let by consultant David Catterall is ongoing and includes integration of previous AEM and CSAMT
data sets, aimed at generating areas for further follow-up.
In-depth geological mapping and a detailed soil sampling program are also being carried out.
Follow up is expected to consist of Induced Polarisation (IP) geophysical surveys, and then a program of drilling to test
the highest ranked targets. Presently an indicative 1,200m of diamond core drilling has been allocated for this, at an
estimated cost of $360,000.
A budget of $485,000 has been assumed. If results of the geophysics result in a large number of high-quality targets
then this may be expanded, utilising the discretionary budget available on a results basis.
These figures are indicative and are subject to change based on exploration results and actual contractor costs"
The interim financial were to 30th June and in reality KAV had creditors to pay. Happy to be corrected, BT gave a couple of interviews in early Sept and in one he says cash is currently $400,000 which leads me to think KAV is operating on fumes so the £4.6m (US$5.5m) Purebond raise is the new baseline.
The interesting (disappointing) point is only a fraction of the $5.5m is being spent on exploration because as Bozi points out Turney doesn't do prudence. I'm estimating only $2m of the $5.5m will go on exploration. The ENRG deal is strategically good and secures a great land package in between Sandfire & Rio, but its costing $1.8m in cash before any drilling obligations. Turney's said there's a pipeline of a "dozen" deals, any savvy CEO would structure these to preserve cash until KAV firms up resources creating genuine shareholder value, but Turney has Purebond's open cheque book....until the day they eventually kick him out. At present KAV is run by an old man (albeit some sucesses) & a 12 year old in the body of a 40 year old.
Cash position post raise USD 5520000
Nara option payments 110000
Nara min spend 500000
Hillside option 500000
Hillside drilling 500000
ENRG 1600000
Karakubis 1000000
Overheads 1000000
Rig purchase costs? 500000
Total spend commitments next 7-8 months 5,710,000
I agree the ex-placing price is theoretically higher & its difficult to buy stock & both point to a higher share price. Looking at the Leopard prospect (not being drilled straight away) they should be looking for >500kozAu, Hillside (should start in next 10 days) looks more speculative.
My caution is the dire state of the markets, KAV's ability to FU the geophysics & poor drill results, lots of cash going out of the door funding licences not drilling, and an absolutely massive capital (equity funded) requirement when KAV moves to mine development. KAV will burn through the cash in 7-8 months, the share price will be smashed down and Purebond will increase their stake to 80-90% of the company with private investors left with nothing. You'd have to be a trader/speculator to touch KAV, its certainly not an investment for private investors. The only reason a lot of LTHs are still around is looking to claw back losses rather than a ringing endorsement because PI's are going to get diluted 200-300% in a very short period of time (6-24 months) unless KAV gets spectacular results and manages to sell Karakubis for cash.
I only see the share price rising if there's been shenanigans suppressing the share price to make the whitewash takeover look good or secondly if KAV actually makes a discovery and the track record has been diabolical. IMO the share price won't rise much until KAV delivers.
KAV are targeting Hillside which had very modest production underground so its not clear what if anything this will yield.
Leopard also part of the same option deal has a non compliant resource of c500,000 oz.
Over the next month they'll likely be a ground war against Hamas and an air war with Hezbollah, it might last 2-6 weeks, who knows. Rightly or wrongly EZJ SP will get a hammering so my advice is sit it out and look to add if the fall looks likes its bottomed out. Pick these up at £3/share and its an easy 2 bag over 24 months.
Yes the revenue figure $570m but the valuation is based on free cashflow generated i.e. profit assume $500/oz not 1900, then apply a discounted cashflow calculation, assuming a 15% WACC (note local interest rates in Zim dollars are 150% but have ignored) because country risk is high and LIBOR is now 5%, then apply the licence holder's percentage (typically an explorer with a JORC compliant reserve/resource will get 10% of the DCF) based on their added value so 4% and that's how you get to the valuation. An added complication is BT has stated KAV can't produce a resource & flip as per the intentions in Bots, it will be something to do with property rights and the ability to enforce contracts in the Zim courts. When BT compares Zim to Australia the elephant in the room is a functioning legal system and the transferability of assets and neither applies to Zim.
The underlying point is KAV needs to find +500koz of near surface resources which are easily extractable with low capital requirements.