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Personally I think it’s a distraction as KAV could have drilled 2-3 holes with the money at Hillside/Nara. Slightly frustrated KAV are 2-3 months away from Hillside assay results and probably 3 months away from Karakubis drilling so 6 months for those assays. Let’s assume Nara drilling commences in a month, there won’t be any meaningful news unfortunately for 5-6 months.
The timelines for assays tended to be 3 months when core was sent Bots-JHB but KAV are likely to use ANTECH LABORATORY which is c100 miles NE of Bulawayo. BT did say early new year suggesting the lead time is much shorter. You would hope KAV will release results for the first two holes fairly soon.
If you want some interesting reading which is highly applicable to Hillside as similar greenstone belt, check out Pambili's NI 43 -101 report.
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/6278138e6055e5734ae318ed/t/640ff40688b9152f5fa25bb0/1678767122779/2023.03.10_PNN_Updated_NI_43-101_Happy_Valley_Mine.pdf
Karakubis is "Q1"
Nara was "immediately after Hillside" and BT said that was finished in early/mid Dec, the problem was they completed 3 drills but didn't have enough time for a 4th. On the whole, I agree its probably a good thing drilling a 4th hole at Hillside because they'll need to make a decision on the option by the end of Jan. The drilling has been a lot deeper c330m per hole although I was rather hoping the bulk mining prospect was much shallower.
At Nara KAV have upgraded the target from 500k to 1m oz so fingers crossed
New tweet, looks like they're cutting cores a bit odd when BT said assays "early in the new year". Secondly they've decided to drill more at Hillside when BT said they'd finished and were starting at Nara and they'd moved equipment. Just wish BT & KAV do what they say.
KAV drilled 3 diamond holes c1000m at Hillside, the anecdotal suggestion is they found a lot of gold. Cores sent to a local assay office with results possibly in Jan. Drilling will start at Nara in week 2 or 3 of Jan 24.
KAV processing geophys for Karakubis, drilling expected end Mar 24.
Investors cannot discount geological risk, if there's nothing there you move on.
I agree the track record hasn't been great but KAV and BT have made significant changes over the last 12 months so my prediction is gold & lots of it in 2024. If Karakubis (and they have the regional expert) comes off its ultimately worth 6-10p/share.
Social media is a good way of venting frustration particularly when management have been incompetent. CEOs get away with murder because there’s little accountability and they know that, but gaining a poor reputation is one at to redress the balance. Just wish PJ concentrated on telling the story emphasising the value inflection points.
I'm losing track of the presentations so are not necessarily quoting the latest one, "Q1" has been mentioned several times. What does this mean? Nothing starts until mid Jan at the earliest but my best guess would be last week in March, the reasoning is they're running a regional AEM survey which is a big area, it needs number crunching and then analysing with the other layers of data.
The KCB isn't quite as prolific as investors might expect, Sandfire are spending $25m/year and are not finding new zones. KAV's PL082 was a disaster and PL036(??) was quite advanced and near drill ready but Dave Cattrall has focussed on Karakubis, if it comes off with multiple dome structures then its worth +£100m to KAV so 7p/share at current capital structure. I'm not saying 2000m of drilling will result in 7p but to say there's significant upside with a distinct possibility both RIO & Sandfire will want that ground.
I agree actions/outcomes will be the key share price driver and "assays in the new year" will be one example. That said there are a group of people on here deliberately de-ramping for the last 18 months and I doubt they hold shares. I don't mind constructive criticism but the majority are looking for positives.
Look at the videos from Mar/Apr 23 about Ditau where he was "incredibly excited" despite KAV's own assays saying only pathfinder. The project is no longer a priority, says a lot. BT could hype a snail climbing up a wall.
For balance, there was a recent comment quoting the KCB expert as having said he'd seen more gold in samples from Zim drills than in the rest of his career put together. If that is remotely backed up by assays (BT says "new year" which probably means April and only then if he deems the grades good enough), then its happy days.
Layla: historical drilling over the last 40 years didn't find anything commercial so if there is mineralisation it will be localised rather than district scale.
Whilst I can't find the reference , pretty sure a recent RNS said the geophysics didn't align with the conductors which is not something for POW to shout about. POW use Spectral Geophysics (?) as did Kavango with similar results in KSZ, the latter has given up KSZ for Zimbabwe/KCB.
The latest geophysics looks compelling (they all do!) but the track record isn't great.
Also consider geological success verses commercial discovery? POWs best drills found c0.5g/t PGM, if the next drill finds 1g/t is that borderline commercial at +1000m depth, probably not.
I'm invested & waiting for discoveries, I just don't get good vibes they'll make a commercial discovery 2g/t
Drills? 1 or 2
Cost? c$250/m x 1000m, likely $500k
Probability of success? Low despite the geophysics
Risk to reward? highly risky drill and deep so will need good grades for a commercial discovery
Personally I think there are lower lying fruit in the POW portfolio
Soil grades not drill grades. Key question is how deep & amount of over burden to remove? not heard anything about geophysics.
POW has diversified so much that even if they did get lucky & make a discovery the amount of dilution is such it would have limited effect on the share price. Sean needs to get a grip, prioritise & drill.
Despite Mr Turney reducing his previous options to 3p which would have required him to add c£25m of net value just to exercise, the bar is lowered to 1.1p which lets face it is pump & dump territory. Going forwards if Turney adds £10m of value he gets c£300k which given his track record is extraordinary.