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Re Ben: true he has got over excited in the past, Ditau has gone from priority to back burner.
But what I will say is you are now looking at KAV 2.0 which is very much Ben's creation whereas the original portfolio was put together by Michael Foster & in hindsight there was too much geological risk. Behind Ben is Peter Wynter Bee, Purebond, Steve Smith (Zimbabwe gold consultant) & Dave Catterall (KCB expert). KAV (& Ben) has matured , the reality is get rich quick schemes rarely work so KAV 2.0 is tightly focussed by these experts. There's been a series of RNS's, small steps but nonetheless showing progress on the ground. Nara & Karakubis both company makers are being drilled Q1/Q2 24. As a LTH things are looking up for KAV.
There is suppose to be some upside in the resource & gold has migrated over the last 60 years to lower parts of the tailings. Remains to be seen, but its a c$10m project over 3 years and probably throw off $5m of cash which pays for further drilling at Nara. KAV have a fledgling business KAV Mining with perhaps 3-4 projects on the go, none of them earth shattering but its about learning & creating cashflow before larger gold production at Hillside, Leopard & Nara which is a good 3 years away. I do wonder if Pambili NR (KAV c10% holding) gets rolled into KAV Mining as very similar operations.
From Telegram Hive:
"Dee, if you work on a shaft sinking cost of US$1,000 a meter, it will only cost us $100,000 to get a 2m x 2m shaft down to the ore zone.
If you work on the basis each level in a mine is roughly 30m to 40m we’re only talking about getting down to 4 Level to start mining
We then need to put a concrete collar and headgear on the shaft. Prospect 4 already has power and there is a small lake about 300m away
We still need to calculate the true width of the vein but the 29g/t grade is nearly an ounce a ton. That is exceptional
Prospect 4 sits about 10km north of Prospect 1, where our stamp mill processing plant is. That is easily in trucking distance
As you can see in the RNS today the gold in the high grade zone is visible, strongly suggesting it is free gold. We need to do further testing work on this but if this is correct it will mean the ore can be processed easily
We are very encouraged that the geology confirms the IP survey. This gives us a clear roadmap for testing this zone further with drilling and (more importantly) gives us confidence that we can test what we believe are 3 other shear zones in the close proximity. Artisanal work strongly suggests these are also gold bearing, offering potential for future expansion
Prospect 4 doesn’t look like it will be an open-pit opportunity but we never expected that. Instead it looks like a near surface, extremely high grade underground opportunity that we can hopefully bring into production for relatively little investment and very quickly
Having set Kavango Mining up, we’ve positioned ourselves to move swiftly on an opportunity like this if one presented itself, while pursuing exploration for the much larger, open pit style of mineralisation"
From Telegram, when asked about mining strategy this morning BT said:
"Our strategy will change on specific results. Ultimately we are looking for mineable deposits we can bring into production quickly
As you’ve correctly deduced this looks like a very high-grade, near surface opportunity, which is why we’ve highlighted KAV Mining
This is running at nearly an ounce a ton and sinking a shaft to it will be no problem
This is a massive step forward for KAV
The 3 untested shear zones are very exciting because they all seem to be being mined by artisanals (meaning they likely host gold at a good grade) and we seem to have picked them up accurately using the geophysics (the current drill results align perfectly with the IP result over the shear zone we tested)
Prospect 4 remains our 4th ranked target at Hillside, so this project is looking really strong for our 1Moz overall goal"
PJ & BT are best buddies from numerous businesses, so no surprise to hear an endorsement. Not sure if PJ is a direct shareholder in KAV but he hold a chunk of POW which has 60m warrants at c2p exp Jan 25. It could be a win-win with KAV getting £1.2m at 2p.
Legal: the new target is slightly odd because its been 500-2600koz for the last 3 months before the current drills started. I suspect what BT means is their confidence has improved particularly if they confirmed a 200m x 5000m zone. I think the new mapping is welcome although I'd have like to see an interview with a detailed explanation.
Investors would like to see some rapid results, a quick proof of concept (real targets) followed by more extensive drilling to create resources. KAV have one of the largest land packages in KCB, in theory two mineral systems and multiple targets within each area. There are many “ifs” but the gist is massive scale with majors in similar post codes; RIO to the west, Sandfire to the east, Khoemacau (sold to Chinese $1.8bn) to north east.
There’s been a sea change in approach to KCB exploration recognising the geological complexity. Even large well funded companies such as Sandfire haven’t always got it right. Ground IP is the final piece of geophysicss to identify conductors which is where the copper/silver should be. A good result is 2% Cu & 20g/t Ag.
The drill date has clearly slipped to Q2, they have preliminary targets but want more ground based IP on those targets. BT’s “cautious optimism” but recognising KCB geology is complex seems the right tone. If this comes off it has the potential to be district size.
The primary target was Nickel, & to a lesser extend copper & PGMs.
Botswana has multiple exploration licences so if a licence is for diamonds, it doesn't count for metals. We don't know who (if anyone) held the metal exploration licences. De Beers wouldn't get out of bed for trace gold.
I'm not seeing much evidence of ramping on the boards or twitter because as you point out KAV is 3:0 down. KAV is vastly different from 2018 to early 2023. Mike Foster (geologist) put the portfolio & hypotheses together grossly underestimating the geological risks. Yes Turney was the wrong person, too inexperienced to realise he held a poor set of cards.
In 2023/24, KAV has parked the entire Foster portfolio.
In the KCB Dave Catteral, the leading geological expert has focussed attention on two potential mineral systems in between ground held by Rio & Sandfire (operating mine).
In Zimbabwe KAV swapped a chunk of geological risk for country risk with a portfolio largely put together by Steve Smith, another regional expert. The strategy is;
Identifying gold resources > 500koz, Nara estimates are 500-2,600koz
Small scale production which has already begun, positive cashflow to fund exploration.
Large scale bulk mining, probably 3-4 years time.
CEO has moved to Zimbabwe which is really important.
I don't understand how a prospective (ex) investor like Swako can accentuate the negative for several years and then claim he might invest depending on upcoming drill results. Sure a lot of investors would like to hear his buy side case (without ramping of course).
Facts:
KSZ targeted nickel
De Beers had a diamond prospecting licence so weren’t interested in gold.
KAV have effectively shelved Ditau.
Tight focus on KCB Karakubis, Zim exploration and minor Au production.
52 % shareholder so BT will be held to account.
It is malicious when you don’t have a holding and simply trash.
Its equally true there's a hardcore group of 5 accounts (most likely just one or two people) dedicated to spreading rumour & misinformation on KAV. LSE does moderate when prompted.
Fair value is currently 1-1.2p so upside of 50%. That's before the string of value inflection points from news expected over the next 6 months. Inevitably money flows in/out of small stocks driven by news or impending news. Some investors like to buy the news, others will sell into it.
I'm not overly concerned by Ria20 because the stock needs volume & interest.
Cox sold his KAV shares a year back (at a loss) and jumped into MATD (which quickly tanked). Placing isn't due for 6 months and when it does will be taken up privately by Purebond & Directors so no massive discount & no warrants. The negative comments are being co-ordinated.....
In the mean time should have drill results from Hillside, drilling from KCB Karakubis (risky but game changer if make a discovery), drill results from Nara (target range is 500k-2.6m oz), a second round of drilling at Hillside, doubling production at Hillside, work on Nara tailings. There's country risk and geological risks to factor into any investment so DYOR.