The next focusIR Investor Webinar takes places on 14th May with guest speakers from Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund. Please register here.
In some cases dividends can really work out well e.g. for a pensioner whose income is under the tax threshold there may be no tax liability or else tax at the lowest rate. Not so good for those in the higher tax brackets.
The upgrade in NII (although not that significant) is still good news - BIRG tend to be conservative in guidance so their updates/outlook are fairly trustworthy - looks like everything is "steady as she goes" at present
I see that Davy have lowered their target price for BIRG to €14.60 (they had a target of €16.20). Their old target was way above other analysts covering the stock and their new price still seems very optimistic at almost 50% over the current SP.
Sunday Times is predicting €1.3B in dividends/buybacks from BOI and €1.4B from AIB. Traders could probably sell some BOI tomorrow and load up on AIB for a quick profit. I hold both stocks for the long term but I think AIB probably has a slightly better upside in the near term.
There's certainly been a fairly dramatic change recently around where interest rates are going. Companies such as Greencoat Renewables which yields about 6% are suddenly getting popular again whereas interest rate sensitive stocks like BOI and AIB are getting hammered. There's also a lot of gloom around the ISEQ in general with the continual exit of companies. I wouldn't be surprised if Blackrock is also stirring the pot somehow.
SF won't have a majority so the key will be who they get into bed with and hooking up with a bunch of independents would result in a very unpredictable and unstable government. The most feasible coalition partner is probably FF (FG is obviously out of the question). SF with FF as the minority partner would probably be a reasonable compromise with a slightly less radical agenda.
A potentially bigger issue for ISEQ listed stocks including BIRG is the fact that most Irish pension/life companies are starting to close their Irish Equity funds. The majority of the index is now composed of a small handful of companies so it's become too risky for index tracking funds to invest in.
Hard to fathom the mentality of the social media led lemmings who believed that the fact their bank balance was unavailable somehow meant they were going to get free money. I wouldn't even be surprised to hear some fruitcake politicians declare that they should get to keep the money.
The UK mortgage timebomb is just a canary in the coalmine for the effects of interest rate rises. The years of "free" money have distorted the worlds financial system and the central banks efforts to normalize the system are failing. Interesting times ahead.