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The drop has nothing to do with BIRG, it's just the market reaction to the problems showing up in some of the euro banks particularly Credit Suisse. There is always the fear of contagion hence the trackers are selling the euro banks index - have a look at EXX1.de, it always gives a good indicator of the general mood in the sector.
Most retail shareholders have their shares held in broker nominee accounts so they don’t show up on the shareholders register. They effectively grant all of their voting rights etc. to their brokers.
I think Davy have a similar number around 1.17B. Their investment case/SP target seems to be based on the potential growth of this figure to about 1.8B over the next three years. I think that the SP reaction post 2022 results will depend to a lesser extend on the predicted 2022 number and more on how the bank sell the growth story.
The action in AIB has been very interesting to watch over the last few months. It's got to a market cap of 10B even with the government holding most of the shares. The trading volumes have been relatively high and any selling down of the shares (probably by the state) gets shrugged off quickly and the price keeps bouncing back, usually on large individual buys. Somebody wants in - I wonder if the government is planning to offload more quickly than expected, maybe some kind of trade sale?
@johnhume,
I was hoping for an SP of around €10 in the runup to the results so it was surprising to hit it this week. It's hard to see any near term major movement in the SP from here given that each €1 added to the SP equates to about €1B added to the current €10B market cap. Then again, if the results are blowout and the dividend exceeds consensus (I think this is about 18c) who knows. Davy see upside from here of about 30% but then again they're the house broker. I sold some at €10 but I consider the remaining shares as a long term investment. If I can get 10% growth per year plus dividends I'll be happy to hold.
The consensus broker target is around €10 and it's hit that valuation at this stage even with the slight pullback. The expected interest rate hikes were baked into the share price and there now seems to be a general belief in the market that the FED/ECB will not hike much further, maybe even pivoting later in the year. The SP rise over the last year has been spectacular but future gains will be much harder to come by - the easy money was made as it re-rated towards fair value.
This weeks ECB meeting should be interesting, especially to see what hints they give about future rate hikes. Some commentators are speculating that they may start easing off after the expected 50 basis point rise. Any unexpected hawkishness would certainly give the Irish banks a boost (and vice versa).
The share price has certainly shown a lot of resilience over the last few weeks. It quickly recovered from the dip under nine and it's just gone positive again today. The volumes have been quite low on the recent dips and the sp has bounced back each time from any sell volumes. I think this will be over €10 pretty soon.
Looks like the re-iteration yesterday about future interest rate hikes is getting reflected in the euro banks index today (up about 1.6%). The Irish banks are certainly pushing ahead, AIB and BIRG both hitting 52 week highs today