Member Info for jotom750

Whilst there will always be naysayers, whom for reasons only known to themselves (money or power possibly) deny reality (just as the sellers of horse buggies, canal shipping services and sail boats did), the truth is out there. As with politics, anybody who denies simple facts (proposing that they are "old news" or from "unapproved" by themselves' sources) because of their bias is never going to see this. They are too embedded in their own fog. Objectivity is too difficult for them. I have no vested interest in solar panels or GSHP's, that does not make me sceptical. Will they be wrong always? Of course not. Will there be counter arguments? Definitely. This is all relatively new, some ideas will be right and some wrong, people of all dispositions tend to cherry pick the ideas they espouse to. What matters is the trend. For how long was it that tobacco sellers said that "There is no evidence of harm here"? How may died from that war of words? What does evidence tell us now?
https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/climate-change-global-temperature
https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/15/50-years-climate-change-denial
https://insideclimatenews.org/news/04052020/hot-climate-niches-50-years-human-population/
https://www.economist.com/climate-change?utm_medium=cpc.adword.pd&utm_source=google&utm_campaign=a.a_21climatechange.2021-10-07&utm_content=conversion.other-brand.anonymous&gclid=CjwKCAiA4veMBhAMEiwAU4XRr9FWzAjRIKekUxdU5t2XBvXpI07-IXsxItsxgUBnU8qt0YNTz9m75RoCgSAQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
After all, who needs seat belts?

"For example the hotter the Earth's atmosphere the more heat it will radiate (lose) into space per second. So, the hotter it is ... the more the Earth cools down, by natural processes."

The Earth does not radiate ALL the heat increase, so the planet heats up. Put insulation (the atmosphere with greenhouse gasses in planetary terms) on an oven, it will take less energy to get hot and heat to a higher temperature. The differences needed to cause catastrophic change are quite small, not 20, 10 or even 5 degrees, but 3 degrees will probably do the trick. There will probably be some sort of tipping point, the Gulf Stream may move, floods and fires even more commonplace. Where does all the melted polar ice go? Rising sea levels. I would not want to live in London in 30 to 40 years. That seems too distant a timeframe for some to be bothered I know, maybe they don't have children.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/natwest-latest-share-price-analysis-and-forecasts-ii522072?utm_source=newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-DLY-ENGAGE-ii_afternoon_round_up_221121%20(1)&utm_content=newsletter&spMailingID=16313968&spUserID=MTIxNjc2NDkxODYwS0&spJobID=1874926455&spReportId=MTg3NDkyNjQ1NQS2

Some interesting thoughts on bank pricing levels.

https://www.ii.co.uk/analysis-commentary/these-six-uk-bank-shares-look-cheap-ii522052?utm_source=newsletter%20&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=NEW-WKLY-ENGAGE-ii_weekend_round_up_201121&utm_content=newsletter%20&spMailingID=16274423&spUserID=MTIxNjc2NDkxODYwS0&spJobID=1874585932&spReportId=MTg3NDU4NTkzMgS2

KD. Thanks for that info! The majority of my trading is done within an ISA wrapper, (where I don't think it's possible) so I thought that it was not possible for other accounts also. I will certainly look into it now for the rest. Thanks again.

It's not just LLOY it's many stocks, certainly banks. Though obviously stocks move due to performance, local and world conditions etc, there seems to me more and more just random rises and falls, often at similar times of day, (a dip before lunch time is common). Seems to me it's automatic trading, mostly it's moves around 1.25% to 1.75%. My cynical view is that this lets the big traders get in and out and still make enough to pay their stamp duty. Good fun if you can do it 3 or 4 times a week. Anybody who thinks this too far fetched should look up the LIBOR scandal. My advice is don't be too phased by it, LLOY is a keeper and who needs more than 25% a year anyway!
DYOR.

Livestock. Thanks for the info.
The Europeans have traditionally had lower interest rates than the UK, the issues and mindsets differ. We now have greater flexibility and different circumstances. I don't see them converging on rates. I think that we will have a rise (and rightly so) within the next few months.

Darth.
I'm not sure what way it will go, though I'm certainly not as negative as some. What is interesting is that comparing the Dow/S&P in the states, the Nikkei, the Dax and the FTSE for the last five years we get a situation where stocks have risen by between 50% and 75 % abroad and are virtually stagnant in the UK. over that period. Longer timeframes also show a similar (though not exactly the same) correlation. It would seem that the UK may be better placed to weather any storms and potentially offer rich pickings for company buyers. Though this may be just a sign of the UK's weaknesses. (Is this possibly a result of the UK companies paying higher dividends and thus not growing organically as quickly?
DYOR.
Good luck to all.

PCA.
It will be a long tough road ahead, if we will successfully travel it I don't know. Having been involved in Design and Manufacture for nearly 50 years I can say that most "outside" this sphere have no idea whatsoever of the complexities of bringing a successful product to market. I would sometimes say to juniors that on an A4 sized drawing (even CAD stuff is printed off sometimes) there are 100 ways it could be wrong, and 10 ways it will be right. The ease of picking up a phone/email etc and ordering it instead, and slapping on a 50% markup is just too attractive. As we know, in the 70's onward there was a move away from home produced products, luckily our economy was buoyed up by oil, gas and services. Our management is often frankly crap, interested in paper shuffling and arse covering mostly. As those revenue streams wain there will be a real jolting wake up call. As a nation we are very inventive, but we lack the mindset, tenacity and longer term strategy to capitalise on this, many of our instigators move abroad for that reason. Unlike some here I will no longer mention some related "factors" but only that new more distant markets already have established lower cost suppliers, breaking into those will be a challenge. I don't think people are ready for that.

SOR
Good point. This may/would leave them less influenced by government. Do you think there are any other benefits?

Hi Victor.
When you say,
"Buy the Lloyds $ denominated shares then".
Judging by others, are not the prices largely joined in lockstep so that devaluation in £ value would then be reflected in devaluation in $ price also? Though I may be wrong in that.
Good luck to all.

Falky. Thanks. I was not aware of their present situation, I read that they are being taken on by yet newer entrants so missed forecasts themselves. Poetic justice! I do think that the "Banking and payment" space is in a state of some flux. This would possibly mean that LLOY's move into property lettings is a very timely thing.
The only constant in life, is change..
Good luck to all.

Falky.
Thanks for that really honest answer :) I see where tourism could benefit (not withstanding some transitional issues). In some respects I was framing the question for others as well who may not always understand the implications in other areas. Few are as honest and clear as yourself in this respect.
The interconnections of finance, capital and 'money' have so many ramifications it's sometimes difficult to comprehend the ripples. I was actually thinking of a typical example where two large tower blocks of flats in East London were bought by a Canadian teachers union pension fund, (just like you or I might buy into a single stock), and other things being used as investments. Pound devaluation would be an issue to them, what they would do and it's effect on property prices generally I don't know. The juxtaposition of those trying to get out due to devaluation and bargain hunters coming in, is an interesting one. The UK is as are many countries very intertwined globally. I tend now to think of my residential property as part of my portfolio, so things that change it's value can actually have a larger nett effect on wealth than savings,
(3% of 10'X' being larger than 10% of 1'X') stocks etc, as no doubt you well understand.
I believe that UK banks are in a good place for stock value appreciation, my only real concern is new entrants, they tend to start small, cherry picking their focus and then expand into more mainstream offerings. Having been to a Frankfurt trade show some years ago and seeing the PayPal stand taking up half the whole show was a sign of things to come. Where is Western Union now? I do hope that the UK banks become a bit more nimble on taking up newer initiatives better to protect and grow their businesses.
Please DYOR.
Good luck to all.

Falky. Sorry if I was a bit confusing. Buying companies in the UK would be cheap, but holding UK stocks would become devalued as those are held in £ denomination.

Falky.
Am I correct in saying that:-
Parity with the dollar would be good for exports, (as they in effect would have become cheaper) but would that not also cause a flight of foreign investment from UK companies? Would sell orders make UK stocks tank? Would it also make borrowing on world markets go up in cost by a similar ratio? I understand that it would make UK companies drop to "Fire sale " prices, but this could cause unemployment as they then tend to be asset striped or at least "economised". Have you tasted Cadburys chocolate recently, it's :(

From II today.
Despite some knockout company results recently, latest GDP data is disappointing. Now, experts are asking if the best of the recovery is behind us. Sluggish GDP figures today added to the confusion for investors after this week's blockbuster performances by Marks & Spencer Group MKS + 2.65% Auto Trader Group AUTO +14.16% pointed to improving trends.
Third-quarter expansion of 1.3% came in below City forecasts at 1.5%, meaning the UK is still 2.1% smaller than it was at the end of 2019 as one of the back markers in the G7 recovery.
There was some cheer in September's figure of 0.6%, but this is more likely to have been due to a temporary boost from pandemic restrictions easing. Paul Dales, chief UK economist at Capital Economics, added: “Continued shortages and the drag on real incomes from higher utility prices probably mean it will soon fizzle out.”
Having risen by 5.5% in the second quarter, the fear for Dales and others in the City is that the best of the recovery is now behind us and that GDP will struggle for momentum over the winter.
Marks & Spencer shares rocket as results fuel turnaround hopes
Get £100 cashback when you switch to an ii ISA in November. Terms apply
Without the 4.7% month-on-month jump in health output as a result of more face-to-face GP appointments, Dales notes that GDP would have risen by only 0.1% in September.
The lacklustre performance comes only a week after upbeat markets were confidently predicting that the Bank of England will hike interest rates from 0.1% in order to seize the initiative in the battle to stop inflation becoming entrenched.
Today's figures go some way to explaining why policymakers hesitated, although they may choose to act next month if the first set of unemployment figures to include the end of furlough scheme are sufficiently robust.
Capital Economics is not expecting a flurry of action from the Bank, however, and thinks the base rate won't go above 0.5% next year. Such restraint would represent a blow for lenders including Lloyds Banking Group LLOY +1.22% as they look to rebuild their net interest margins, but offers some encouragement for retailers if cheap borrowing costs continue to prop up demand. The recent earnings season has painted a more optimistic picture than today's GDP figures, with last week's strong numbers from Next NXT+ 2.57% followed by upgraded guidance at Marks & Spencer.
It still remains fearful of inflationary pressures at the start of 2022, a factor highlighted yesterday by the US consumer prices index reaching a bigger-than-expected 6.2% in October.
But a closer look at the Baltic Dry Index, which is the widely used measure of global shipping rates, offers some encouragement after a big fall from the three-decades high seen in early October.
The index is now back to where it was in the summer and has been accompanied by an easing in natural gas prices in Europe as Russia boosts supplies ahead of winter.
These factors should settle nerves

Falky, I sometimes get the same feeling, it could be related to the very good run we've had over the last year and not wanting to loose/risk it. If you're really concerned, have you considered reducing exposures by a proportion? Be it back into cash or another sector of the market. There are reports to say that UK markets are undervalued presently by about 20% to 25% or so, but attractive though that may be, on a personal level it's always a 'maybe'. With mobiles and online trading though getting out the door is quite quick. The only downside then is getting back in if it's a small blip. (But that small loss is worth calm sleep I think).
https://www.institutionalassetmanager.co.uk/2021/09/24/306693/institutional-investors-see-uk-equities-undervalued-says-new-research
https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/share-investing/article-9947761/Has-UK-stock-market-recovery-finally-arrived.html
Please DYOR.
Good luck to all.

MV, Investing in those M&S bangers at £5 for two packs is showing about a 45% ROI ! Better than most of my others!
Whether was the initial valuation was correctly audited I don't know.....

MV. & Brix
Those sound great. I'll have a go this weekend. YUM! Will try the M& S bangers too.

I wonder if the drift down in SP is due to some not liking the share buybacks as they reduce the pool for bonus dividend payments. (That would seem a short term attitude to me as the buybacks reduce the shares issued). I can't see any real reason for it otherwise.