Member Info for JonVortex

I thought Top Gun was pushed back? Is that July?

Yeehaaa. Jester’s dead!!

With all the money I will make from my 10,900 shares I might buy the UK cinemas off of Walmart. Anyone want to go halves?

So, we are kind of all agreed (aka hopeful) that the Share Price going to start rising consistently now. Presumably Johnson's staggered release of confinement rules will be announced next week. Presumably this will be good news. With the advent and progression of the vaccine programme and greater efficacy of track and trace, you would think (aka hope) that there are no more national lock-downs coming.

Blockbusters are pencilled in ... the studios (like those of us who work in hospitality) are probably hoping for everyone to release their pent up demand for food/drink/movies/experience/life to result in a banner H2 for 2021. I mean epic.

Which all leads into ... with the current dip, if there is going to be any takeover (for the record I suspect not) then it should be in the next 36 hours really.

Of the basis of this absolutely stellar logic I just topped up another 1200 shares.

10914 now. Average price 51p.

Personally I have seen so many false dawns over the past 9 months that I think things will settle down again and drop. So I dropped 30% of my holdings @80p and hoping to buy it back when this things settles to mid 70s tomorrow.

I don’t trust this stock. :-)

Bought in as low as 20p and have held since April. I’ve sold 3,000 shares today @80p. Have 6,000 left ... but I’m expecting the share price to dip back into the 70s this afternoon / tomorrow. Just cos “Cine”.

If it sails up to £1+ and this is the launch, I’ve lost some profit - but my average price for 3,000 shares is about 30p - so at least I’m up 250%.

@ztarz ...maybe I am.

The reality of seeing the entire industry I work with forcibly shut until March is quite sobering. Kids will not be going back to school in Jan. that’s definitely going to be delayed.

Once we are in May and, say, I dunno 50% of the population are innoculated how are we going to manage 400 seat venues which are at capacity? There won’t be a passport. There won’t be an armband for the vaccine. 30 year olds won’t have been vaccinated, the virus will be rampant in those circles and so cinemas and restaurants and pubs will be tracked and traced into shutdown left / right / centre. Restaurants will lose all of their perishable goods. Staff get fkcuked due to TRONC. More restaurants shut which impacts cinema trade where possible.

I am indeed feeling quite bleak about 2021.

Like I said - I run a business in hospitality, so I hope I’m wrong. But I believe the chances of things being back to normal in April are zero. According to the Omni tracker I am due my vaccine in August of next year. I don’t feel particularly in need of my vaccine - But the implication of me getting a vaccine in August is that 50% of country also will not have it.

What happens if you need the vaccine again next year - which is possible. What happens if a new variant becomes more lethal rather than simply more transmissible - what happens if a mutation increases the mortality on children or infants or newborns??

I’m not deramping - I bought Cine back in April and have held since, lowest buy back was at 20.82p. I believe there is a future for Cinema and live sports and live music.

But the cold reality is dawning that we are still in the foothills of this thing and not about to ascend into the Forge. I’m actually up about 30% overall on both FTSE and Cineworld. I might cash in now and buy back in early Feb.

I can’t see much upward momentum between now and then.

100% attendance in Q2?? Absolutely no way

End of June is 27 weeks aways. Maybe 20 million will be vaccinated then. Most of them high risk who probably don’t go to cinema anyway.

In the meantime we have the UK variant and the SA variant and we will have other variants as yet undefined. Eventually one of those might even become Covid 2021.

I import wine for restaurants ... and I have 10k cine shares and £10k in 3UKL FTSe tracker. I believe that we will find a way through this - but it will not be in H1. No way.

January and February are going to be the hardest, coldest lockdowns yet. Schools will probably shut. It’s going to be awful.

I’m hoping for a roaring 20s comeback. But there more I look into my heart then more I think that for the next 2-3 years we are going to be living in a masked up lockdown sporadic wasteland. I don’t expect to be able to leave the UK in 2021.

This is all ****. Recovery won’t be until 2023-4-5. A new generation of youngsters. Better treatments. Survived through Covid 19 and Covid 21 and SARS 22. And it will be a whole new way of living.

But saying 100% capacity in H1 is flat-out bull****.

Ha - I just checked this out as I was about to call bull****. But then I saw that the UK does in fact claim to have undertaken 48 million tests. My wife works in the NHS and gets tested 2 times a week. Presumably she accounts for close to 100 of those tests ... otherwise that would be every adult in the land, and aside from Mrs Vortex I don't think I know anyone who has been tested.

Lies, damn lies etc...

NB - I totally agree it has nothing to do with migration or people ... “foreigners” in the UK are overwhelmingly positive ....

This is more about the migration of jobs and opportunities.

I think there is no question whatsoever that globalisation has impacted the well-being and economic security of large swathes of the Western world. Look at the desolation throughout the American Midwest ... look at the gutting of the UK high streets.

There has been a very real impact to the social contract, which was: “ work hard, save, buy a house, your kids will be better off than you, you will be taken care of in your old age”. That no longer exists for many and it is going to continue to get worse for many more.

In many respects this is irreversible. There will be a shift to localism and protectionism ... that will balances things slightly, but not for a good while yet. In the meantime there an awful lot of very unhappy people who vote for things like Brexit - which will certainly not help in the short term and will make things worse n

I knew it would spike this morning and then settle down. I've got £1.5k I've decided to play with ... had a sell order in at 67p and was going to buy back later. It topped out at like 66.97. Dagnammit.

I've decided to try and take £100 or so whenever I can in addition to holding 10k shares Long. After 7 months Cine owes me some short term profit taking.

Fish. Mackerel. Cod. Herring.

The future of Britain and the basis for the economic future of my children and their place in the world of being determined by feckin’ Mackerel.

Unreal.

100%. FTSE has underperformed against every major index over the last 6 months. Brexit is the sea anchor.

If they get a deal it will rocket. Target probably 6700.

However if they manage to fkcuck it up it will probably drop back to 6100.

I don’t have much faith in the Tories to pull it off. I’m on 3UKL for ****sandgiggles ... but there is definitely a risk that it goes Pete Tong.

What happens if Cine go Private?

11.5k shares @ an average now of 41p.

Haha. Remember those Halcyon days??

I believe that Cineworld will come back and I think it’s a long term significant opportunity.

But it’s clear the market doesn’t agree with that in the short term. We keep “waiting for lift off” I guess somehow expecting that we have stolen a jump on the multi-trillion dollar financial services industry??

I guess my view on this is that there will be a few jumps and more troughs throughout 2020. Once w get to 2021 and we have a genuine horizon of normality, then it will gradually rise along with overall sentiment (and vaccine numbers). But I really can’t see why we would be “£1 by end of September”. It seems noone else thinks it will. And some of them get paid an awful lot of money and are very very very clever.

Chance of this bouncing back to finish at or about even?

80%?

No. Taxes are national. VAT is a tax on goods sold. So goods sold in the UK attract VAT. Goods sold in Gemerant attract MwSt. Goods sold in the US attract GST (Goods sales tax - which is set in each state). There is zero chance to any country from the UK changing VAT.