Member Info for Jonfon

Natural gas is in freefall. Looks like the boom is over. I3E produces oil too, but last years price surge was from gas. I think we'll fall below 20 if this goes on.

TT earning a lot on the back of interest rate rises. It wasn't the plan when they bought it, but I'll take it. It shouldn't let June Felix off the hook though.

Agree on the costs. Unless the spend is Capital spend on upgrading IT systems, but I don't think that's the case. If it was, it would have gone on the balance sheet rather than the spend. I think this is still very under priced, so I'm glad they buying back, but also agree it is too slow. Fire JF and you'll see the share price soar.

Just a comment on the projected NOI: In the September presentation the forecasts dropped because of a lower AECO price. Now that the price is at a record high, maybe we will actually hit the record projection.

The loan notes are very much in hand. A few months income at most.

TonyNorstrom1

I got my figures from Slide 6 of the latest presentation. 25% oil and condensate. My apologies, I should have written 1/4 oil and 3/4 gas and NGL, not 4 times.

Where are you getting the December production figures from?

Oil dropping like a stone but we've hedged at over CAD$100/ barrel for Q1 and Q2 next year. Even though the gas BOE price is far less than the oil price, the fact we produce ~4 times more gas than oil means the AECO gas price is more important than the oil price.

The AECO (Canadian) gas spot price has passed $6. This is a historic high. The gas prices graph on the page below shows it's history and forecast. Good times ahead.
https://www.gljpc.com/price-charts

OK, now it's going into freefall and I am getting concerned. Could someone know something we don't?

The AECO price is very strong now. We have good hedges in place to cushion us from any nasty surprises. The Serenity field was never properly priced in, so it's failure to produce should not be an issue.

I think the price is dropping because there is no news due and the investors looking to turn a quick buck are pulling out and trying to find the next quick win. Let them do it. I'm happy to sit back and collect my monthly dividends and watch this slowly tick up again as the year end report nears.

If you read the latest reports, there are some pretty solid hedges in place for the first half of next year. We lost some money on the hedges taken in the first half of this year, but if the oil and gas prices drop, we are now covered. By now, there are probably a few more in place for Q3 next year.

With all that in place, we have stability for another 12 months.

That article is from 2019 Manunited.

Production and sales going on at the excellent rate we have become used to. The price is heavily discounted because Putin is angry that Kazakhstan won't join his cause. There are murmurs in the press that this might be his next target. The truth is, he has his hands so full with Ukraine, starting a war on a second front is just not going to happen. Even if the Ukraine situation does somehow sort itself out, China, who is treading a careful line with the Ukraine war, won't support any aggression to Kazakhstan.

Debts have been fully paid, just as world interest rates are rising. That means interest expense turns to interest income. It's small amounts but will still add a few pence per share. Commodities will need to fall very far to negate the effect not repaying paying ~$40 million a year has on our free cash flow. I think 30p annual dividends are now entirely possible.

We also in a strong position for acquisitions. There may be some bargains popping up soon, which will work in our favour long term. Whichever the case, this is a strong buy.

Cobre is going up off the back of a discovery on the Kalahari metals prospect. 2 months ago, Mtr sold their 25% stake for £750 000 to pay for "running costs". Cobre's market cap is now around £40m pounds, almost all of which is based on the recent discoveries.

Obviously nobody could have seen the discovery coming, but knowing drilling results were due in 2 month, and having made the initial investment on the hope of a good find, how the f**could they justify selling a potential £10m in value for £750K?

Sorry, that should have read "for me, Metal Tiger is first and foremost an explorer".

@Illaquens, I never had a problem with Cobre, it is SAU I objected to. It was a bad idea to start with, then we piled in a whole lot more to keep it afloat. We should have called it a day. There are a bunch of smaller investments that might, on the whole, deliver a profit, but after you take the salaries paid to make those investments into account, the % return isn't what you should get on an investment as high risk those companies.

Although the bulk of our NAV is in Sandfire, Metal Tiger is first and foremost an explorer. Our biggest project has just found what it is looking for and the SharePrice is still in the doldrums. Shows how much trust has been lost with the management paying big money for a team who invest all our money in "go nowhere" ventures rather than concentrating on the core.

Price usually falls a few days before a bad news RNS. Is this a sign of something coming?

Latest report said daily production was 55-65 mmscf and lower price received was £1.61/ therm. 1 mmscf = 10 000 therms.

This gives 600K therms @ £1.61 = £960K a day. £350 million a year. I know this is turnover, not profit, but surely a market cap of half this value is not realistic.

Henry hub now around $7.5. I don't know if this will last but, if it does, even the P1 reserves would exceed $1 Bn

Anyone know when the final results will be out?

Last year there was hedging in place and interest to be paid. EPS was around 36.5p. With debt paid off and copper and zinc hovering around at all time highs, this should go above 40p this year. Price is currently 6 times forward earnings, we are net cash positive and big dividends being paid.

How is it not shooting through the roof? I know the location makes this risky, but surely no more risky than the mines in Africa and South America.