Member Info for JonathanDrennan

I think charge is afoot. Looking good imho...

Possibly talk of rates soon dropping in the US...

Hello all: my only guess on the ridiculous drop today was the business with Gaza talks failing. It seems to have affected other cruise lines too.

Many thanks, Bot! And to you too.

JD

Testing lower track (weekly) from 27th Feb., it seems to me. Let's see if it pushes to upper. If it does, then perhaps we'll see another track for next week, then the week after, then results...

Hello B:

Many thanks for this. Yes, I've invested in CCL over many years and know its habits very well. Yes, the debt plan, as per the trajectory, is set out. But 2026 is a long way in the future so it'll be interesting to see what happens.

J

For me, and this is purely my own conjecture, debt is the problem here. Last year was volatile with AI inflating markets, amongst other things. Carnival saw some unexpected demand, hence the huge swings, and undoubtedly the massive sell-off in the late stages of 2023 was just removing the fizz from the share price. OK, NCLH had a great week if you bought at the bottom, but its yearly is less spectacular: consecutively falling highs on the yearly chart.

I'm keenly watching CCL to see just how long it takes to reach 1200 again. It's Friday; who will want to hold over the weekend and so on. It seems to be sitting around its support presently, so I wonder if it can test 1160 today. Certainly slow progress.

If it follows Norwegian with a 20% flutter later in March, that brings the SP to around 1350s, although who knows if there will be the customary anticipation of results, in which case a good push might lift the SP above the double top.

Who knows!

J

Absolutely! You can almost smell the narrative being written for the end of March: "CCL has made tremendous growth this quarter; however, the investments in the new ships, not to mention the new pier in the Caribbean, are curtailing the the ability to bring down the debt speedily. We remain bullish for 2025...". In which case, it's the Titanic scenario, again.

If I'm wrong, then, well, I'll get the party lights ready!

As you rightly say, the frustration here is the old story that the actual financials only occasionally correlate with the share price. Anyhow, it seems we're sitting on the fency today at 1100, ready to go either way at 2.30pm. At the end of the day, they have the clout, remembering the days of PRTY!

Signing off now, wishing everyone terrific profits!

Totally agree! It's a new world, its seems, so anything that went before 2020 doesn't really offer a good indication of things to come, especially in lieu of spying long trends based on past levels. Or, maybe I'm wrong: didn't Twain say that history doesnt repeat itself but rhymes! :-)

Using the word "disappointing" is only a turn of phrase on my part. Realistic evaluation from a swing-trading perspective is something else, as is day trading, as is going long, IMHO. I wonder where the true watermark is following Covid re travel? Some might argue that CCL is a a long-trade share: maybe, but will the interest in cruising persist long enough to allow this share to develop a "real" upward trend? And swing trading, well, where is the bottom of each trend here? IAG is an excellent example, of course: £2 a couple of years ago, some sort of development last year then, well, nothing - bobbing in the water (and let's not mention the dilution!). At any rate (and let's not mention rates, I wonder if we'll hit support in the upward trend from 21st Feb, at around 1070, on "disappoininting" news from the US this week. Or, will the opposite be true and we see it bounce off a resistance at 1175-ish? I'd hate to gamble on it!!

This is a hugely disappointing share. Absolutely, eye-watering sell-offs corresponding to mildly disappointing news. For a share to have lost c.20% since 21st December says a lot. Big deal that it moves up on the back of others: these movements are drops in the ocean by comparison to the sheer amount lost since late 2023. And even if the forthcoming results day is positive, caveats will be found to facilitate a massive sell-off. I am no way convinced that this is moving to test the double top.