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Of course, Bhants!!! Well, that's a lot of heavy lifting for you alone! And what if it goes beyond 17!!!!
Hello All: I'm feeling reasonably positive about things this week. It's certainly good to see that CCL has maintained its upward monthly trek this week (with parallel resistance and support holding). We were in touching distance of 1200 on the upper track, and the unexpectedly high inflation has given the MMs a wonderful opportunity to drop to the support (closing the gap on Carnival from 13th March today and also the one on Canival Corp yesterday). So, with these closed, and results pending on 27th (I think), fingers crossed for a re-testing of the upper 1300s, perhaps breaking the double top, at last.
Have a great weekend! JD
Yes, indeed! Nice excuse for the MMs to fill that gap from 13th March!
Sorry: US
Yes: wholesale inflation advanced 0.6%; 0.3-ish expected, I think...
Hot inflation...
Indeed. And with such little time to the results, I wouldn't fancy being short here!!
It's also helpful to have the extra hour overlap between US and UK. Less opportunities for gaps up and down to fill, imo.
Possibly two things hastening the motion today: the RNS clarifying the reporting date, then, of course, Goldman S flagging the growth in cruise lines generally; importantly, too, they think the growth has legs.
I was feeling confident yesterday about the push with the bullish penant.
Going by the chart, we should be moving beyond 1400 soon (post results, if the debt doesn't sour the figures).
Totally agree, Bhants! In my opinion, we are in the place where others, in months to come, will regret not having been involved! I remember investing in RR below the £ wondering if the company would make it. Look at it now! I also remember trading CCL in 2020 at far higher numbers than presently at a much bleaker time in the company's history. I've traded this share so many different ways: it can be a swing trader's dream, then, suddenly, it spikes making any gains inconsequential. Interesting that it hasn't dropped (at least yet) to a support around 980 on its yearly; clear support/reversal north showing on the 5yr. At the moment, it looks to me that we are on the monthly support, with resistance around 1200, which I'm sure a lot of us were hoping to see last week. Fingers crossed, as ever...
Of course, Bhants! Must be optimistic on this. The sitting around the support is a real bore, though!! Looking forward to the trading statement. Our cautious friends across the pond appear still to be worried about rates; honestly, going by the demand for cruises currently, Carnival and others will need more ships for the bookings when the rates drop further! 😀
I think charge is afoot. Looking good imho...
Possibly talk of rates soon dropping in the US...
Hello all: my only guess on the ridiculous drop today was the business with Gaza talks failing. It seems to have affected other cruise lines too.
Many thanks, Bot! And to you too.
JD
Testing lower track (weekly) from 27th Feb., it seems to me. Let's see if it pushes to upper. If it does, then perhaps we'll see another track for next week, then the week after, then results...
Hello B:
Many thanks for this. Yes, I've invested in CCL over many years and know its habits very well. Yes, the debt plan, as per the trajectory, is set out. But 2026 is a long way in the future so it'll be interesting to see what happens.
J
For me, and this is purely my own conjecture, debt is the problem here. Last year was volatile with AI inflating markets, amongst other things. Carnival saw some unexpected demand, hence the huge swings, and undoubtedly the massive sell-off in the late stages of 2023 was just removing the fizz from the share price. OK, NCLH had a great week if you bought at the bottom, but its yearly is less spectacular: consecutively falling highs on the yearly chart.
I'm keenly watching CCL to see just how long it takes to reach 1200 again. It's Friday; who will want to hold over the weekend and so on. It seems to be sitting around its support presently, so I wonder if it can test 1160 today. Certainly slow progress.
If it follows Norwegian with a 20% flutter later in March, that brings the SP to around 1350s, although who knows if there will be the customary anticipation of results, in which case a good push might lift the SP above the double top.
Who knows!
J
Absolutely! You can almost smell the narrative being written for the end of March: "CCL has made tremendous growth this quarter; however, the investments in the new ships, not to mention the new pier in the Caribbean, are curtailing the the ability to bring down the debt speedily. We remain bullish for 2025...". In which case, it's the Titanic scenario, again.
If I'm wrong, then, well, I'll get the party lights ready!
As you rightly say, the frustration here is the old story that the actual financials only occasionally correlate with the share price. Anyhow, it seems we're sitting on the fency today at 1100, ready to go either way at 2.30pm. At the end of the day, they have the clout, remembering the days of PRTY!
Signing off now, wishing everyone terrific profits!
Totally agree! It's a new world, its seems, so anything that went before 2020 doesn't really offer a good indication of things to come, especially in lieu of spying long trends based on past levels. Or, maybe I'm wrong: didn't Twain say that history doesnt repeat itself but rhymes! :-)