Member Info for Jonah58

PS. We are a miner now.

Good point, Coldfeet. Most posters here are reasonably grownup and try to be informative or ask sensible questions. And perhaps it’s excusable to let off steam occasionally, especially when Leon talks about the hugely successful SA business while you watch your savings turn to dust.

There has always been the odd rogue here - anyone remember Kitchens? His style was a tad acerbic. But if you’re looking for that extra something, I can recommend the ARCM board.

I continue to thank everyone for their contributions.

The margin is higher than that at current basket price, Bobbin. This is why the ‘they’ve got us over a barrel’ argument doesn’t wash with me. Three years production and we could give the outfit away for nowt and still be better off.

I accept that by voting “no” I’m taking a punt on metal prices (and also that it will make no difference whatsoever to the guaranteed “yes” outcome).

My guess, and it is only a guess, is that we have some more Munkoyos and that others are sniffing around, so we want to buy into them asap and therefore need capital now. I know this contradicts Leon’s assertion that SA is capital light, but would explain why we seem to be in a hurry.

A short addition to Seis’ helpful response. The usable water level in Kariba is currently twice what it was this time last year. I guess the same goes for other hydroelectric reservoirs. Last year’s power issues should not be repeated this season.

"The difference is that, cost-wise, we own the resource of production in Zambia ..." I presume you are referring to Munkoyo and Grovenor and LWP here Gotreal. Most of the current production at Roan, however is coming from bought in ROM whose grade would be the envy of the majors in Chile and Peru. I accept that the situation should , hopefully, change but our current operation in Zambia looks suspiciously like what we are doing in SA.

The maths is simpler than that, Papa. The toll processing is not very profitable, but it does produce some regular income. If we don't do it, our total revenue will drop. Your argument only makes sense if the processing capacity is re-employed with direct market ore, but that would require a new contract. (Incidentally, am I the only poster on this board who did not know that half our toll processing contract would end in June and that the much vaunted 2 million tonnes of concentrate was only going to be for 2025?)

The RNS claims that the rise in PGM price is offset by the drop in chrome price, so the negotiated price for the business remains fair. This ignores the huge increase in value of the massive stockpile of PGM feed with continues to grow, day by day.

Thanks, Seis. 85% rise in the price of Ruthenium is interesting too.

I agree Chatman. There must be something we are not being told. Perhaps there is a third possibility to add to your list which is that another opportunity has arisen in Zambia that is “too good to miss.”

Ah!! They are back again now. My aged laptop playing up perhaps.

I note that my post about the WPIC predicting a rally in PGM prices, and Gotreal's riposte, have been deleted. I'm not sure why. They both seemed harmless enough. So, to reiterate, (and as Seis has also pointed out) the recovery in platinum price was not unheralded. The point is, I suspect the current basket price improvement to persist which is relevant to this discussion.

Interesting that everyone seems to have been taken by surprise by the rally in PGMs. This was widely predicted by the WPIC.

https://platinuminvestment.com/investment-research/perspectives/platinum-supply-and-demand-are-price-inelastic-in-the-short-term-leading-to-sustained-market-imbalances

Now I know it’s their job to promote platinum investment but the predictions were backed up by credible figures and arguments. I note they do not believe the current basket price will be reflected in increased supply and that platinum will remain in deficit for several more years.

I am not sure how happy our prospective buyer would be if we started depleting the huge dump of chrome tailings, with its contained PGMs rapidly increasing in value, by shipping it off to the joint venture.

What is the actual status of the large waste project? Have we completed due diligence and, are both sides now committed to the sale?

One of our neighbours was interested in a corner of Tjate, Coldfeet. I think it got as far as a MOU. It all depends on the basket price - supply and demand. The platinum council predicts a deficit and rising prices. Well, that's their job, but unless they have massaged the figures the current rally could well be sustained. There will be a price when Tjate comes into play, but I suspect a lot of mothballed shafts elsewhere will be bought into production before anyone gets too interested in Tjate.

As previously noted, I am waiting for the circular. Meanwhile, Leon stresses that there is no way we can grow the SA business without buying a mine. But, a couple of years ago he started buying material in the eastern limb and there was talk of replicating Inyoni in the east. As far as I know we are still trucking the stuff over. Theoretically, an eastern chrome/platinum complex would grow the SA business considerably, but only if PGM prices support it. Until we know what the longer term trend in PGM basket price is, I still feel like voting against the sale. It was the lure of PGMs that prompted us to sell the ferrochrome smelter at Middelburg, remember. Hydrogen is the future!

Whatever it's due to Shuv, Platinum is now testing its 5 year high and until we sell SA it's going straight to our bottom line.

I’m not claiming any great accuracy, Seis, but in 2021 we made about 50,000 oz of PGM concentrate (including the joint venture ) and about 700,000 tonnes of chromium concentrate. I was just extrapolating from those figures, though I accept that there are multiple variables that I cannot control.

Tricky to estimate the effect of the recent rally in PGM prices on the value of our assets. However, I believe that a very conservative estimate of the PGMs in the Inyoni dump is 150,000 oz. With an uplift of $200 in basket price this dump is now worth a minimum of $30 million more than it was when the sale was being negotiated. Once again, I await the circular.

Good points, Iluv, but it also looks as though we are looking to forge joint operations at these properties, admitting our strengths are in processing, not mining. That will mean splitting the earnings too.