Member Info for jollyspeculator

hands off Someone fancies CMB (large last late buy today)

pi's feel the pain in usual suspects.....& may see sense of looking east for value: profitable, low multiples and strong P2 (JKX & RPT) DYOR/not investment advice

Decent trading (200k) in 2-3 mins then back to sleep (nearly 10 times daily average vol so far) - was it a good lunch, guys? Difficult to decide whether mostly buys (think probably they are). Maybe the wine was stronger than intended...

Yes, a modest 11k shares (has been higher/lower as I traded what I hoped were progressive up/downs) Love the idea of being part owner of a gorgeous & exotic hotel - I guess I get to choose my suite

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Yes, my main short term, linked concern(s) are - The full potential liability from this lease dispute: gross (not time or uncertainty discounted) liability for DSN of possibly as much as £2-3m by my back of envelope calc or 3-4.5p/share (it is this high, of course, because there are still more than 10 years to run on this lease according to the rns) & - How any settlement would be funded by DSN (any thoughts? Rights issue plus some additional o/d?) However, even an adjusted sp of 10p (taking a great deal of account of this potential liability) leaves DSN in value territory on multiples (p/e or EV/EBIT) imo What is your read of the strength of DSN's markets and the quality of its management? Cheers Jolly

More research much appreciated - you certainly are thorough! To add to your load, I'll repeat my cheeky suggestions (DWHA & RGS)! Have a great week Jolly appreciative

this morning @7.45p DYOR/not investment advice of course, but forecast EV/EBIT of around 5 makes this worth a punt imo

You really don't like the man....it's quite safe, now..HE'S GONE

Hi Finbarr Agree that Kibu is the beating heart of this board! I suspect that this sp will weaken a little more - and may challenge 8p again (that play has worked for me before) DYOR/not investment or trading advice, of course! Jolly

LR at such a discount is what I like most about CMB, so (if such a significant step is the cunning plan) I hope it's not a distressed/fire sale!

is a real head-scratcher (I have traded in and out since 20p which has alleviated some of the pain!) I would not exactly "recommend" CMB (could still be seriously bad for financial health) BUT I do like the hotel (Leopards Rock) - I think I stayed there 20 years+ ago - as an asset play

Taken some (small) comfort from JKX inetrims "There has been much speculation in the press recently concerning royalties and corporation tax rates in both Ukraine and Russia which we continue to monitor closely. In Ukraine, changes to the production taxes from 2013 have been approved by parliament and signed by the President. At current production and price levels they do not materially impact the Group's effective production tax rate."

Hi Amer Valuation is - as you rightly suggest - relative EXI is interesting (I'm not invested, but watching closely), but it is not as cheap as you suggest - its net back is low (and so its forecast p/e does not stand out relative to peer group companies like JKX or RPT) - its EV/P2 is low but is still roughly 3 times higher than RPT I like to use the LSE boards to understand these plays better, and would be very grateful for any considered (not personal, pls - that's just tedious!) perspectives We all want the same (to make good risk adjusted returns) after all! atb Jolly

Hi debeege I checked out EXI as you suggested in your post I liked EXI's EV/P2 (not as good as RPT, but better than JKX), but could not understand why profitability is so low relative to JKX - net back of just US$7/bbl Very grateful for clarification Jolly interested

Yes, check out RPT's P2 of 151m boe and EV of ~ £30m bopd is not the only value metric!

You are very welcome. Great to have agreeable company on a Sat evening. I'll pocket your flattery - many thanks I would appreciate you elaborating on the EU Ruling to which your post alludes. Also pls share all other concerns. This is because (i) better to cash out than be wiped out by profits warning (ii) it is jolly lonely here and I could do with your company!! DYOR/not investment advice, but my sense is Pros (i) Alignment of ownership and management (ii) CEO done a decent job in challenging conditions (iii) Low multiples (I'm not much bothered by div yield, but clearly nice to have) Cons (i) The markets in which DTG are clearly vulnerable to downturn, and this vulnerability is exacerbated by the marked seasonality your post rightly mentions (ii) How good is the CEO if conditions worsen? (iii) The company has sizeable hedges that complicate the profit calculations (maybe even the reverse or softening of your "hidden value"?) atb & Jolly grateful ps have you checked out DWHA & RGS?

Mirrors my thoughts - sp could well drift even lower and then may load up Enjoy the rest of your w/e Jolly

I'll now feel less like that lonely nutter on the top deck of the big red London double decker bus Think of it as your Xmas contribution to Care in the Community Jolly grateful

Ups1de I would dearly love to hear/read a considered critique of the Dewhurst. The global market may be wretched, but these guys seem...darn good But I would not like to be missing something important, though.. Jolly well placed