Member Info for jollyspeculator

yep...but now way outside my comfort zone in terms of any serious understanding!...as you say, I take comfort from the low reported cash costs

well certainly a fun rollercoaster...not sure my ticker is up to it ...I am used to the calmer waters of safe sound profitable companies...oh..that would be GNG then lol

since my move here lol... ...so EV/EBIT of near dead on 5 ...cheap as chips imv ...aaoo/dyor, all

u probably understand GNG as well as any of us here... ...greatly appreciate your further insight/views...in particular, I have a couple of Jolly nagging questions: ...why is GNG so well placed to benefit from Chinese recovery? ...and why are you so much happier with GNG than BSST?

tick up... ...but no great volume here...so suspicious lol

not CEP

Paul Swinney, Chief Executive of Tristel plc, said: "The result for the year masks a starkly contrasting performance between the first and second halves. The loss before tax and nonrecurring items of £0.6m at the half way stage was followed by a profit of £1.1m in the second half. The explanation lies in the severe drop off in first half sales of our legacy endoscopy products. Additionally, we entered the financial year facing the considerable challenge of establishing our own brand for the UK veterinary market and locating a diverse customer base which we had previously supplied through a distributor. It took us into the second half to achieve this. The momentum which we built in the second half has continued into the first quarter of the current financial year. We are cautiously optimistic that it will continue"

missing millions etc (wot that between mates?) ..so EV/EBIT less than 5 here ...go figure!! ..aaoo/dyor (may be seasonal bias for instance which is distorting ratio lol)

H2 adjusted pre-tax profit of £1.1m (which nearly EBIT lol) so run rate annual Jolly nearly EBIT of £2.2 versus MCAP/EV of c£10m (insubstantial net cash so same difference) ...pls check the calcs...those 200 chess games are ON!

I am only a jolly amateur...but flattered my genuine interest.. ...u must look at all three.. ...many PIs forget to look at the cashflow imv (and get excited by EBITDA only to be stung cos there is a big payment for R&D intangibles each year...SPE springs to mind)! ..I would replace p/e with EV/EBIT (except for oillies with their onerous tax payments lol)...that way you factor in capital structure and are less likely to be carried away with low p/e in highly indebted companies (cf NTBR) ...sure try to relate broker forecasts of growth to EV/EBIT...but I don't take a lot of interest in broker forecasts (and rarely read broker notes) ...as a rule of thumb, EV/EBIT less than 7 is exciting ...but I am more than happy to pay up to 10 and beyond for good growth and managment

still on free carry though ...hedging my bets cos reckon c6p may be proper bottom

that's a fair slug

..

I'm sorry...4 both of us

4 now

they are...huge buys

(not before time lol)

well, of course it depends! (and depends on calc of NAV...intangibles included or not for instance?) ...in particular, an investment trust usually trades at a discount (I think..pls check!)...ditto a hold co of assets (like ASM)...I think that reasonably reflects double costs (at hold co and at the level of the real business) ...for an operating business, I would have thought the average FTSE100 company trades at a substantial premium to tangible net asset value (tnw)...but pls check...I don't follow the serious/big companies ...(btw I don't like intangibles and always strip them out; that clearly gives a distorted/undervalued view of companies with great brands like Coke!!!) ...in general, I don't believe there is any strong link between discount to NAV/TNW and subsequent short term sp performance (but academics will have done the work...and probably proved there is!) ...for me, it is about the 3Ms (management, markets and multiples) and we humble PIs know precious little about the first two (but we compensate in part by looking for alignment of interest I guess through shareholding...or family name which is one of my Jolly tricks; plus some commonsense lol view on potential for growth) ..on multiples, I usually do not major (or focus particularly) on NAV/TNW except where egregious (eg massive discount for Chinese receivables for GNG or BSST) or a hold co (ASM) or property related (all the REITs) ..my focus is on profitability (EV/EBIT...my handy ready reckoner that is only partly reliable) ...as u see I am relying Jolly heavily on EV/EBIT here ...but my main "trick" (not the right word...perhaps tic) ...the one that separates me from probably everyone on LSE ...is my unbelievable diversification (and that's before the cash and property) ...this "tic" allows me to sleep peacefully...I just don't Jolly care about any one or two positions/plays blowing up ...BUT it often feels like playing 200 games of simultaneous Sunday park chess; against deadly pros like riddler or dibs or RW that's just crazy...so I guess I am banking on the average PI not being quite so smart ..I am not sure I would recommend my approach ....not even to myself!

consolidation?

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