Member Info for jollyspeculator

makes EV/EBIT metric a little less potent (just look at GBO lol) ....cash and eq dropped by c £1m in the 1H (which is unnerving to say the least). But they say cash will be paid in 2H...Let's see ...Being pretty conservative free cash/eq may be c £4-5m now (knocking a few million US$ off 30th June 2015 position...but so difficult to say given explosion in WC req over 1H) ...run rate EBIT is c£1m, giving EV/EBIT of c4-5...which is clearly cheap...v cheap ...don't rely on my figures, DYOR & gl!!

quite right...what is yr take? ...the explosion in trade receivables and poor fcf struck me as odd ...plus the revenue recognition policy

touche...I would need it to drop a fair way to tempt me to reverse flip...but you are right of course that my posting is affected by my book (like everyone's is) ...happy with reduced free carry during this interesting pre news period

so taken bait and bought a wee few more @34.x ....still in process and what happens if 34p breached??

welcome...hope that wasn't rude innuendo lol

decent entry sp imv

shorts unhealthy

"Mms desperate for stock."...a little cliched ...and desperate; without news, fair chance of drift...101 on AIM ...the MMs are relaxed, chilled, wealthy and amused....rarely if ever desperate

delayed sell being filled ..yawn

and Richard comes over well...not belligerent/cocky/know all...but working through thoughts...refining processes ...I think he makes plenty of mistakes (one that springs to mind: sold TON way too early, perhaps forgetting a little about the unbelievable balance sheet strength that makes it such a good % play); I don't follow him (or read his blog much i have to admit)...just recognise he is there and a beacon of relative sanity...and suggest others look out for him

I find it heart-wrenching to read of the huge losses suffered... ...this is a dangerous game, made more so by easy access to implicit leverage (cfds, spreads etc)..hence my original post that you didn't like much ...ironically, I like the fact that in aggregate there are so many contributors to the daftness of the market..but the individual stories are a different matter altogether

for me, the joy is that the market is mad...if it were sane, I wouldn't bother much; just buy a tracker or three and savour the joys of life elsewhere relaxing to my end wittling through my easily earned ...the market is clearly deliriously nuts: how else do you explain tulips or 1929 or 1999 or today's bond markets etc etc? And those are just the easily identified and catastrophic episodes of intense insanity (and I really lived through the 1999 episode...second by glorious second...hours after hour making £100 or £1k or even £10k every hour...hour after hour..bonkers...made a fortune and fortunately didn't lose much of it) ...To draw a distinction between the market and the players is sophistic...the market is an ever dynamic expression of the players...same difference

worth reading the value investing cannon, incl Joel Greenblatt's now classic book and thinking through the Magic Formula...I like Richard B (of iii)'s Share Sleuth blog more...Slater's classic of the ?70s is probably worth reading (I haven't!)...and then there must be plenty written by (and critiques of) the masters: Warren B and Ben Graham ...Perhaps decide (i) allocation to shares (probably a small % of net worth imv) and then (ii) what mix of value investing and momentum trading works for you...clearly sensible to invest/trade after trend reversal (to the positive if long of course).. ...remember: no one knows that much and market is pretty much always daft ...so don't get rattled and enjoy it...I don't think that comes out in the books enough...... ...if it is hard, it isn't working for you...take a break (I have had a few spells off over the past few years and returned refreshed and relaxed)... ...this is a great game, and you are much more likely to lose if you are not in the zone imv..like a sportsperson fully relaxed and in the groove, confident of their preparation and approach ..gl

ofc the market decides...and you can see what a mess it makes..not just sometimes but pretty much all the time ...plenty of pros spend ages in the City (and esp PE / hedge fund fringes) valuing companies...they don't believe the market knows best...they see the market as daft and a basis for quasi-arbitrage or taking to the cleaners... ...get used to it...or give up this lark ...imv

guessing/sweatin'

and other folk here before the Zak Mir coverage ...my halfpenny's worth is: difficult to get higher than 12p without that all important contract news...we already had a little surge from 8p to 13p before results on speculative hope..now we need more than hope?

they need new contracts sharpish..or take the axe to costs..their op leverage is horrid high (drop in revs straight to frightening crash in ebitda)

may be bumping along here for a while...but the future is glaringly bright

well at least he tries to do the hard yard's analysis...but i reckon Richard B of iii is stronger, and a decent translator of the much hyped US/Joel G's Magic Formula style value investing ..think cgs, tfw, dhwt/a, ton etc etc ...in all this (Magic Formula to Jolly's 3Ms) ev/ebit is central with assessment of tangible book esp realisable assets v mcap nice secondary rationale (having checked the calcs on ebit cf gbo and the challenge of massive spend on intangibes lol) ..with markets jittery, life is Jolly sweet

may be decent bargain imv