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Greed is good, and with more and more green boxes appearing the more exciting I’m getting 😂 so bring it on boys and girls 😜

“ Gordon Gekko: The public's out there throwing darts at boards, Sport. I don't throw darts at a board. I bet on sure things. Read Sun-tzu, 'The Art of War'. Every battle is won - *before* it's ever fought.”

As the magazine's foreword reported: "A recent seminar sparked fresh discussions on whether Bangladesh should mine coal to reduce reliance on expensive Imports. Energy experts stressed that tapping into local coal reserves is essential for energy security."

What had triggered a government-supported seminar to discuss the use of domestic coal?

Bangladesh remains one of the world's poorest and least developed countries. Despite relatively strong recent growth, its GDP per capita stands at just USD 2,500 – well below Vietnam's USD 4,300, Thailand's USD 7,300, and China's USD 14,300. The country also remains energy-poor. While the global average electricity consumption per capita is 3,204 kWh per year, Bangladesh provides only 464 kWh per person (any country supplying less than 1,000 kWh per capita is classified as energy-poor).

In a developing country like Bangladesh, energy poverty is far more than an inconvenience – it can decide over life and death. For most of the population, energy supply is either insufficient, too expensive relative to local incomes – or both! Despite its abundant domestic energy resource, Bangladesh currently imports 40-50% of its energy – and that figure is rising. The country spends valuable foreign currency importing liquefied natural gas (LNG).

It's no wonder that Bangladesh, too, is reconsidering its options.

As a result of these developments, in April 2025 I sent a Special Update to Undervalued-Shares.com Lifetime Members. The 15-page report detailed a number of other developments.

Since then, the news flow has remained interesting:

"Power and energy crisis in Bangladesh", Centre for Policy Dialogue (31 May 2025)

"Trump's Coal Comeback Goes Global", OilPrice.com (6 June 2025)

"India's coal champion reopens dozens of mines", Financial Times (8 June 2025)

Given all that is going on, we could soon see another wave of speculation around Phulbari and GCM Resources. For all its struggles, the company has continued mapping out a potential use of these resources to produce domestic energy. Though a minnow of a company, GCM Resources has Chinese partners waiting in the wings, ready to deploy billions of capex.

Will they, won't they?

The verdict is still out on whether Bangladesh's government will make a decisive push to increase domestic energy production. Even if it does, it's not guaranteed that the controversial Phulbari coal reserve will be used. The government might opt for other coal resources (even though it'll take many more years to develop those), and it could decide to yank GCM Resources' license and give it to someone else (though that'd risk an expensive legal case and scare off investors).

Still, there is a distinct possibility that Bangladesh will choose the quickest and legally safest route to resolve its energy crisis. This could mean granting GCM Resources – and likely relying on the company's existing Chinese joint-venture partners – the role of developing the resource and building th

In March 2025, the stock sprang back to life, climbing from 1 pence to as high as 5.5 pence within weeks. Once again, it seemed the tide may finally be turning for the dormant project. Yet, as before, volatility proved insane.

The stock fell back to 2 pence and is currently trading around 4 pence. Two months ago, the company completed a funding round to mobilise GBP 1m, with investors paying 3 pence to participate in the placement.

GCM Resources

GCM Resources.

With 336m shares outstanding, the company currently has a market cap of GBP 14m. Depending on your perspective, that's either GBP 14m too high, or the bargain of the century. It's too high if you believe politics will forever block the development of this resource. It's too low given that GCM Resources sits on coal reserves valued at around GBP 50bn as raw material, even though coal prices are currently rather low. Similar to Northern Dynasty Minerals, more capex would be required, and shareholders should expect dilution. However, this could potentially multiply current investors' stakes many times over.

Stocks that are completely bombed out but could become 100-baggers always attract attention, no matter how speculative their prospects. After all, these are the kind of "intelligent lottery tickets" where a punt of GBP 1,000 (or GBP 5,000) could yield a profit that's large enough to buy a new car (or a cheap apartment).

Back in 2020, Undervalued-Shares.com Lifetime Members received what I like to claim remains the single most informative report ever published on GCM Resources. Unfortunately, my timing was premature, and the stock went down from 12 pence to as low as 1 pence. Still, I am proud of the information and context the report pulled together.

In recent months, my earlier analysis of GCM Resources has gained some new relevance.

Developments in Bangladesh are unfolding in ways that may mirror what is happening in the US. On 16 March 2025, Energy & Power, Bangladesh's magazine for the energy sector, carried the following cover page:

……

https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/****-mining-companies-the-next-stellar-performers/?utm_source=weekly+dispatches&utm_campaign=5bbeb8ab9d-us_wd_2025_06_13&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_6e748b56d1-5bbeb8ab9d-460062561

i hope that one day, i'll be able to share a similarly positive turnaround about…

bangladesh's coal company that shat the bed

as you can imagine, timing is incredibly difficult when investing in these convoluted situations.

even a stock that has already lost 99% of its value can lose another 90%.

that's exactly what happened with gcm resources (isin gb00b00kv284, uk:gcm), a london-listed company that shat the bed in the mid-2000s.

back then, it traded as "asia energy", and was focused on developing one of the largest coal resources in asia. the phulbari coal field was discovered in the 1990s by australian mining company bhp billiton. with recoverable, proven coal reserves of 527 million tons, it represented 20% of the country's entire coal reserve.

however, bhp billiton's management ultimately decided the project was not for them and sold it to a group of british, american, and canadian entrepreneurs. the new owners took the company public on london's aim to raise funds for developing this massive coal deposit.

starting with a market cap of gbp 40m, the stock rose 12-fold, and the company became worth gbp 500m. analysts predicted it could reach gbp 2bn once coal production began.

unfortunately, in 2006, protests against the mine broke out in parts of bangladesh. the demonstrations revolved around concerns over resettling local residents and the use of scarce groundwater resources to operate the mine. in august 2006, around 30,000 protestors attempted to storm asia energy's local office. six people were shot dead, and 300 injured. these events triggered nationwide half-day strikes and further protests, which led to more injuries and ultimately forced the entire project to be called off.

asia energy has since been trying to get the project back on track.

in 2008, a canadian mining entrepreneur made a takeover offer that sent the stock soaring from 100 to 300 pence. however, the bid was widely seen as too low and ultimately fell through. considering the immense value of the coal reserves, investors had driven the share price as high as 350 pence.

it has since plummeted to as low as 1 pence.

to be continued…..

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