RE: Michael Walters1 Aug 2022 10:06
A great read Heid.. thank you!
A few bits missing but ipad allowed me to pull most of it.
..
Go, Go UJO
Please excuse me if this is getting plain boring, or too dumb to believe, or simply
seems a futile gesture - but it has to be said that shares in Union Jack Oil (UJO)
are an absolute steal at 23.5p, even after they bounced 2p higher today.
Right now, the market capitalisation is £27m. Within the past year or so it has
been twice that. It has also been half that. Yet every day in almost every way, the
business has been getting better and better value.
Think about it. On Monday UJO announced that net revenues of $8m had been
achieved so far from the Wressle discovery in North Lincolnshire. That is $6m so
far this year, indicating that Wressle is generating about sim a month net to UJO
Play with the arithmetic a little. If the current rate is maintained, Wressle could
generate about $12m by the end of the year. At current exchange rates, that is
close on €10m. We are talking net here, so most of it will flow through to profits,
never mind what modest interest It might be generating. UJO is not spending
much at the moment, and had €9.15m in cash and short term receivables at July
24.
Take that market capitalisation of £27m, knock off £9m cash, and you are left
with a company valued at €18m generating, well, let us say £9m of profits from
Wressle, and you have a price earnings ratio of two (le. It would take two years to
earn profits equivalent to the value of the whole company).
Bear in mind that UJO has no debt, just net cash. And there is a trickle of income
from oil plays other than Wressle, with no expectation of the intended energy
profits levy likely to chargeable at this company.
Maybe, you might think, that means UJO shares look cheap. So they do, unless,
of course, you think Wressle is not just an unexpectedly pleasant surprise, but a
brief burst of glory, soon to fade, with the oil in the ground soon exhausted.
Happily, that is not the case. Independent experts Gaffney Cline have been
assessing the Wressle opportunity for what seems like ages. Maybe because
things keep getting so much better, no verdict has yet been delivered. Even now
is not clear when the updating and upgrading will stop and the final analysis will
appear, but it cannot be too far away.
When it comes, the report will bear three well-informed quesses (I know, I know
- we don't want guesses, but whatever they call them, that is what such things
are in the oil and gas game). We will have three potential production scenarios -
low, medium and high - showing the conceptual production curve for the
remaining planning period of 13 years.
So UJO is talking about 13 years of oil from Wressle - and that is on what appears
to be known right now. It could last longer. There could be more (and just might
be less).
The way everyone associated with Wressle is talking now (not officially, of
course), the whole project is shifting strongly towa