Member Info for johnpwh

I agree about the likelihood of takeover being next to zero. Whether some of us like the management or not, the various early stage projects are probably safer in KS's hands than anyone else, and I am not sure what value there would be to a third party. Would the terms of the JV, of which AAU is sadly now only a junior partner, allow a takeover? Not sure how that works.

I'm guessing 60k remaining ounces from Kiziltepe, hopefully 300k from Tavsan (I hope that is after the recovery rate is applied) so at a guess of $1000 net per ounce we have 10 year cashflow totalling £(0.235 x 360,000 x $1,000)/1.25 = c.£68m.

Heaven forbid Stranger. We agree! Of course it also means that because of the appalling JV terms we kissed goodbye to .265/.235 x £68m = £75m (plus the amount given up in the past 4 years) for £25m (less lots of legal expenses). But you know I never complain,,,,,

Commiserations Claret (you too LoB) on the result, only 1 out.

Hi Stranger

Think the list of potential funding requirements for various projects you outline, faced with a rapidly dwindling and finite contribution from Kiziltepe, means that pressure on the net income from Tavsan will allow only a far more modest dividend than some of the more upbeat shareholders expect. Its either that or a move away from the debt free position we tend to take comfort in. I prefer the smaller dividends due to the cost of debt to small companies and the catastrophic impact on their shareholders when debts reach maturity and cannot be repaid. How many times do you see that on AIM?

The only bit of your piece I would like to clarify is that Zenit will be the one raising capital to develop Salinbas (if that happens). That is obviously true, but for those reading this board without the knowledge some of us old timers have, AAU is a 23.5% shareholder in the JV so that AAU will end up with 23.5% of that investment demand whether it comes from withheld dividends to the JV partners, an investment call into the JV or a combination. it certainly isn't a free carry!

Thanks Stranger for 3 excellent posts, I learned stuff too.

The problem I have got greentea1 is that hydrogen is very viable longer term, using renewables to generate it at the point of need or being transported like petrol, something that is a problem for electricity due to transmission losses. There are viable hydrogen cars being manufactured and running now, but hampered by severe lack of refuelling infrastructure that is even worse than that for EVs. So short term I agree that EVs are the immediate future (unless governments repetitively delay the whole rollout which I think is very possible or even likely) with hydrogen being the longer term solution. A hydrogen car needs a battery pack, but a far smaller one which may explain the persistent decline in the Lithium price as some suspect demand will be far less than previously assumed. With an appalling rate of progress at Zinnwald (some would call it none existent) you can argue that in the debatable event that Zinnwald ever reaches production it will miss the boom demand.

Thanks LoB, Van.

Well I will be slightly more optimistic and say that we should know by my 67th birthday on 14th May that the production is on track!

Any more??

In the spirit of the excellent posters on the ADVFN I propose a variation of their recent sweepstake about when AAU will be first above 3p in 2024. To which my answer is that it is doubtful it will be. It is :

On what date in the remainder of 2024 will Ariana's bid price at close of business have finished above 2.0p for 3 consecutive business days for the first time.

I remember Ash on here a few years back. He seemed to have good accounting knowledge, he had the sense to get out and stay out. From memory he likeg the 'new' JV as much as I did. Mind you Ozaltins involvement after taking over half the assets for a pittance has at least speeded up Salinbas as promised.....oh, hang on, we are further away than ever with no progress in years. The way the Board of Ariana had the wool pulled over their eyes in that deal was laughable. Think how much our ceded 26.5% of Kiziltepe would have netted by now, how much in the future, and how much having 50% rather than 23.5% of Tavsan would have meant over the next 10 years at 30000 oz production per year. Or maybe don't else you'll be down the pub to drown your sorrows.

Love the censorship applied to the mighty gunners!

I am from a finance background but my accounting knowledge is very very basic and restricted to what I learned when doing taxation exams. Yes there is income from the gold production, but that has effectively flowed through largely to plant construction, never reached AAU as I am not aware of any dividends paid out of Zenit to AAU. So assuming that this sort of plant is recognised as having value in the net assets of Zenit then maybe it comes though as am increase in the 'Investment' line, as AAU is a shareholder of Zenit?

Gawd knows, just have to wait for the annual accounts to be published.

I was hoping for an RNS to address the currant situation and reassure or at least explain to shareholders, who don't possess the knowledge about the health of the company that the Board do. Instead nothing, sod all. Zilch.

This just proves to me the contempt that de Villiers and Sener hold for shareholders. We are a necessary irritant to them to be ignored, while they conduct a quoted company as if it was a private one fuelling their lifestyles. I used to respect Sener at least, but I don't even feel that way about him with his now monotonous upbeat spin on progress, joke about AAU becoming a half billion MC company and massively missed targets year after year.

Hard one LoB. The net asset value quoted was relevant at the balance sheet date of December 2022. Lot has happened since them which don't think any of us can truly predict - except that with no Zenit Income because of the Tavsan plant build I assume cash at hand is down!

Time will tell. And if I am proved wrong I will be the first to admit it. Will those taking the opposing view be so magnanimous? Hasn't exactly gone as promised so far has it?

Would it be beyond the management's wit to release a statement saying that they are not aware of any operational.reasons that would cause this mornings share price movement?.Assuming of course there is none. A further delay in Tavsan is the only obvious thing operationally. Let's face it the farce that is Cyprus is already written off in moat peoples.minds so further delay in the IPO (which everyone is expecting anyway).would not cause this

Down again. Very browned off now, there is no management effort to stop this continuous decline. 2p is starting to look like aspirational now. I saw the various sweepstakes on the other board, do they look optimistic or what?

Stranger, I find your post interesting, thought provoking and depressing!

Prospects throughout the world are just that. Prospects. How do we know even a single one of them will pass financial viability tests? How many will be subject to corruption if they do threaten to be successful? What will happen to the basket case that Cyprus is (which DJ always said it would be)?

Where does the figure of $800 post tax ex Zenit come from. Was that published?

Can't see Zenit distributing full net profits while Salinbas needs developing. Chuck in a plant at Salinbas and we might see Tavsan simply providing cash for that the same way as Kiziltepe provided cash for the Tavsan development-- with the exception that Salinbas will require far more. Cant see 50% of Zenit dividends given to AAU being given to AAU policyholders given the number of early stage non Zenit projects that keep being added. No way of knowing but a max 20-25% would be my guess.

Given all the lifestyles that Ariana supports you wonder how long it will take for the mythical half billion valuation when every project takes more like 2 decades rather than 1.

You began by stating 'Ariana’s share price is somewhat below its real value'. I wish I could be sure that is true these days. I am certain of one thing though. It was way over valued at 6.25p, will be many a long year until you see than again. We may approach 3p after Tavsan is shown to be producing smoothly. But 3p will be a very high wall, very hard to cross with barbed wire, broken glass and razor blades on top. It will take some spectacular unexpected news to do that because otherwise if this share reaches that level hoards of disenchanted shareholders will be heading for the exit. Including me.

As a fence sitter, looking to this or Atlantic lithium for exposure to lithium, I am yet to commit. Obviously this latest twist doesn't help. It seems as a spectator that local Nimbys are trying to tie this up in red tape until SAV give up, especially with all of the countless agencies involved. So I am thinking at the moment that I would rather wait until something more certain is known and I suspect other potential investors will do the same as me. I have lost enough on AIM shares (Zinwald after exposure through the Bacanora takeover) so I have previous! Anyone hold both Zinnwald and SAV and want to share their thoughts on how they compare?

A joke, and not a funny one. Scam written over this from day one and the miraculous rising of Fox marble from the ashes. Are they even pretending to quarry marble now? No? So they are changed tack and are pretending to make ticky tacky prefabs instead. Does anyone honestly take this seriously and think these shares here are an investment that wont go to zero?

Same here skipjack I rarely post here Following the Investor Meet this was my feedback left:

I am pleased to have Craig in this position. He seems genuine and realistic which unfortunately we investors are now learning had not been the case with the previous incumbent in the past few years. Obviously previous management did have its shortcomings shown by external operational difficulties and poor vanadium price, but I feel the Craig is more likely to be able to face such challenges. He says things as they are, not things he thinks we want to hear. I am quietly confident that with a few lucky breaks Bushveld can get through this to a far better place. Thank you Craig.

10p? That much! I only look on here because I believe this is where news will be posted in the unlikely, sorry very unlikely, event that Fox Marble will win the court case. I'm not holding my breath. Anything associated with that nice but dim muppet Gilbert is doomed to failure. ECOB never even got out of first gear, in fact I'm not even sure the engine was started. Total scam.

Fair assessment. I am here for the long term