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Good points Stranger and an excellent post. Don't really agree with you about EVs. Markets are smart, and the fact that Copper is depressed and Lithium even more so indicate to me that Governments are not in control of timescales here. If Governments want this then they would have to massively support both fuelling infrastructure and mining activities financially - look at EMH, ZNWD and SAV in Europe which have Lithium in the ground but are making literally zero progress towards production despite a huge European Car industry who are supposed to be phasing out IC engines imminently? What is the EU doing? The situation is ludicrous. Without financial support all governments can do is set loose targets and spectate as they see how quickly things develop, in other words like now. Its no good setting drop dead dates when you are talking about crucial things like transport and energy supply, or as a Government you will face embarrassing climb downs when the lack of progress emerges. Like the Tories have done already with the woeful EV recharging rollout countrywide.
Was only talking about EVs with friends in the pub after todays walk. To a man they wouldn't consider pure electric except as a second car for local town use, but would consider hybrids. Life is stressful enough, why add to it with range anxiety?
I agree with Van about hydrogen cars being the best option but is unlikely to gain traction as EVs are far more advanced (for those of us of a certain age think Beta vs VHS). We aren't investing in EV recharging, how will we do that same with hydrogen refuelling stations as well? So I understand why markets aren't bidding up copper and lithium with the vigour that many 'experts' have been predicting for the past several years, because they cant see the level of demand 'experts' predict. More on topic, the price of Lithium and Copper going through the roof are about as accurate at PoG at $3000, $4000, $5000+++ that frequently do the rounds year in year out.
I think Van and I were at the same meetings 5 or more years ago when gantt charts were still a thing. Tavsan should have been in production for some years now and we are still the best part of a year away. How many people reading posts on this board are more than 50% certain that Tavsan will enter production in Q4? Or that the Venus IPO will happen in Q1 or Q2 this year? I certainly am not. With AAU nothing ever happens before it is estimated only after - usually years after.
How can the Kiziltepe plant be reused in Kosovo when it is owned by the JV that AAU owns only 23.5% of? Or are we going to give 76.5% of out interest there away to Ozaltin/ Proccea for next to nothing as happened at Salinbas?
The was much not to be pleased about. I may have misunderstood, but because of a desire to say that 2023 production expectations were exceeded we were treated to 'including gold in carbon and in circuit at year-end (>500 oz)'. That way 17683 is > 18000. Maybe I am reading it wrong because I think he has an extra comma in as it reads as if 17693 includes the magic 500. Of course I am from Birmingham and we talk funny there. And if there was 500 oz in the circuit at the end of the year then surely the same was true at the start of the year? So it seems to me a big fat fib.
I agree about lithium. I did have a chunk in Bacanora who were bought out by Ganfeng so did quite nicely. However the terms left me with some Zinnwald and like a pillock I added to them. Big mistake. It may be the mineral of the EV future but Lithium price has fallen off a cliff. Being a potential European producer may have helped with demand from the motor industry or even direct support from the E. But with a Market Cap of 30 million and plant/ mine requirement of hundreds of millions at a time of decreasing margins for the product I decided to exit stage left with a small overall loss (thankfully more than compensated for by Bacanoras gains!).
Why are you lot determined to have Trumpy back? I though we had it bad.
Of course revenue isn't the same as profit but even so. AAU has brought a major asset, Kiziltepe to production and is now mining out the dregs because the pits are essentially exhausted. So that entire asset has come and gone and what have shareholders received since 2008? Zilch. Who has received benefit? The directors. Is this just their lifestyle company? That is all to show at the moment from Kiziltepe except for several permanent ugly scars on the Turkish landscape and a heavily used and possibly worn out plant. Please someone (unfiltered) tell me why I should be happy? There is Tavsan which will be in production in a year but at only 23.5% interest not the original 50%. We are no closer to production at Salinbas than 8 or more years ago. Cyprus has become a very unfunny joke and all other projects are a decade or more (knowing AAU 2 decades) from production. I would love to hear a counter argument.
Yet again missed deadlines, and now the hint of cash shortage at least in the JV, causes SP decline. I could get 250k @ 2.188p as I write if I wanted to. But frankly I don't anymore. How many days have we had like this over the years?
Fun fact, the Share Price is the same now as November 2008. Bear that in mind when Dr Sener extolls the company's progress in the next presentation. The company is bigger, with far more fingers in pies but overall the shareholder return has been NIL over 15 years. By the way Gold has nearly trebled in price in that time.
At least one group of Stakeholders have some good news about their interest in the Company.
I think they should start their RNS announcements slightly differently.
I suggest 'Zinnwald Lithium plc (AIM: ZNWD), the German focussed company who show little or no interest in lithium development'.
Hi Van, all this from memory.
1) Agree. Think its officially 8 years but should go to 10 and in time maybe a couple more. The thing about Tavsan is that it is surface deposits even if the actual quality of the ore is low, so you pretty much scrape if off and process it. Whether that becomes a problem using heap leach as grade deteriorates further I have no idea, maybe you need a high heap or more of them! That's why they employ mining engineers. It would be daft for posters like us to speculate, just trust them.
2) Partly agree. Kiziltepe return will not be great and production will tail off rapidly. But the plant is bought and paid for so marginal cost of any newly discovered extension should remain low bar trucking.
3) Yep, lets hope its not edged back like Venus IPO!
4) 50/50, maybe announced, maybe not. I think that is one for 2025 myself.
5) Dunno!
Whether the SP this time next year will be significantly greater I wouldn't like to say. Similar bullish sentiments were held by many of us this time last year.
When the SP was 3.15p and gold was below $1800........!
Good post Stranger, good summation. Do hope that any significant discoveries are sold into Zenit on an individually negotiated basis and not this blanket 3x exploration cost (I think that's correct) if they are significant deposits.
Happy Christmas to you, Van, the Burnley Boys (good luck with Fulham and Liverpool), DJ, 4kandles, Shortarm and any pleasant posters I have forgotten!
Just read the past days posts on the other board and see that Konil had already made the point about Apliki appearing on the Cyprus slide. I would point out that myself and Konil and I are not one and the same, I'm sure he wouldn't want to be associated with a buffoon like me!
Hi VanVan
Yes, sad that this board has fallen pretty well into disuse!
It hasn't been a great year, at least as measured by the SP, but then again no disasters either. I initially didn't like the idea of Zimbabwe but as long as the investment there is paid for in services as much as it is in cash (my understanding) then it could be lucrative provided the political risk doesn't rear its head - maybe I'm being glass half full but the country became such an example of a basket case that maybe it is changing, voluntarily or because it has no option. We should remember how successful the mining was in the past in Southern Rhodesia which is where I understand Zimbabwe now occupies .
The Venus IPO has become a standing joke and I'm sure many (including me) suspect it's a blind alley that AAU shouldn't have turned into. But we are there now and you have to summon your inner Maigret with their presentations - I did notice Apliki appearing on the diagram during the BBR interview which gives me some hope.
Personally I don't see dividends in 2024, more like 2025 when the Tavsan operation is ramped up and the processing proven. I have no doubt regular dividends will commence. Unlike some on the other board I think a dividend stream will add to the attraction of the share in the market.
I feel the same as you about Hizzy (I wont try to spell it). I'm not hopeful because by all accounts nothing is certain there yet and it seems very, very deep. Again like you I'd like to see added value from exploration followed by capitalising, because otherwise I cant see any value there for me in my lifetime!
John
Nothing will significantly change this SP, or tempt buyers back in, until there is a realistic proposal on progressing from ore in the ground to mining/ refining without equity holders being wiped out. And even then that proposal must be in a time frame to fit demand. Add in Lithium prices down 50% this year and it becomes very hard, when on the sidelines, to get convinced to press the buy button.