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All the early morning trades were definitely retail
I'd like to fact-check / confirm with the board here: Has the new CEO done ANY form of communication with the outside world yet? A tweet, an RNS, a press release, a press interview, a linkedin post? Anything whatsoever? thanks.
Discount rates on mining projects: https://minewiki.engineering.queensu.ca/mediawiki/index.php/Discount_rate .... see Russia ... and see EARLY stage (such as this) ... therefore, why is the BOD trying to add a few hundred million dollars the NPV here for an early stage, Russian project?
Those US investors in the placing will likely kick themselves as well ... I am waiting here for 12-15 pence range ... Russian sanctions, delays in schedule, political risk, etc etc ... not dipping my toe in here at this level
Per RNS: NPV calc at 8.33% gives $1.2bn NPV ... given the mining risk, political risk, currency risk, and so forth, you really should be putting a 15% or 20% discount rate.
With 15% discount rate: NPV = $0.79bn
With 20% discount rate: NPV = $0.62bn
that's the problem here in my view.
Yes, people are so fixated with an RNS or some external encouragement .. the key is to buy BEFORE the RNS ... and to build a decent position ... then wait for the re-rate when the New Years party cancellations kick in ... so many on here that are fixated on the DHCS dispute (the market has already written that off in effect ... we're now in a new game called Omicron, which will throw off huge numbers in terms of revenue for NCYT)
This share typically trades in opposite direction of the airlines ... algo's doing their job ... The irony is, the more flights there are the more PCR tests. Either way, I just can't see how the testing will not go through the roof.
I'm pretty sure the game is as follows: "We're trying to plead poverty to the UK Government to pay us our money ... it doesnt help to show that we are minting money everyday, and recording record revenue"
Pretty random comparison ... but ... just to indicate again how this business is doing financially:
Market cap: CINE = £436mn .... NCYT = £310mn
Debt: CINE = £4bn++ (after the fine) ... NCYT = zero
EBITDA: £175mn ... NCYT = £75mn or thereabouts for this year?
Either way, if you do an EBITDA multiple or based on net asset value ... this NCYT thing is dirt cheap