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https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/trends-in-ipo-pops-2021-03-04 ... Here are the official IPO stats for Nasdaq ... In 2020, 74% of IPOs were up, 26% traded down on Day 1. the average price movement on day 1 = 38% above the reference price. At the current price (~157 pence), ARB would be 43% above the reference price ... This would suggest to me where already at the top end here ... could of course go higher, but not sure I would di in here. There might be opportunity lower, who the heck knows.
Peter Wall has to drop an RNS pre-listing, to announce the date etc ... presumably this comes ~48 hours ahead of listing? Any ideas about precedent from other secondary LSE / Nasdaq listing about how they update the market in the couple of day pre-IPO?
Blubay - I'm happy to bring the counter-perspective here .. in order to see some decent debate. I think the issue is: many are relying on BTC rise ... if that's the case, just go and do leveraged BTC buy on Binance or one of these platforms. I want to make sure it's a good buy at £1.50, even if bitcoin stays flat or trades sideways for a long period of time ... and then any bitcoin jump is upside.
Some good responses - thank you to the ARB gang. I think I'm in agreement with most of it, not all, but most. I hate getting into bulletin board debates, so let's leave it there. Health and prosperity to all!
This is a serious post - I have better things to do than meaningless debates on LSE ... so it's a serious question for those on here who are holding through the next 6 months at least. My view is: We're raising $159mn, with net proceeds (after transaction cost, and paying the bankers and lawyers) slightly lower (say ~$145mn) (with ~20% dilution which is a lot) ... and then we have to pay the two loans that are scheduled for bullet repayments in October ... so there goes another ~$45mn ... this leaves ~$100mn to implement Texas (in part). For $100mn, can we bring on another ~100 BTC per month online, bringing us to ~300 BTC per month ... if BTC stays flat at $45k per BTC, then really I can't pay more than £1.50 per share ... to buy above £1.50 I have to believe that: 1. BTC is at $60k within the next few months; and 2. They're able to produce at more than 300 BTC per month very soon, without having to raise capital again (which I think is a regular occurrence for miners ... if they HODL, and they want to expand in order to MAINTAIN market share, they have to raise capital every 6-9 months). .... What am I missing here? Thank you everyone.
Thanks Chuz .... personal prediction: I think the dilution is absolutely priced in now ... this has been telegraphed to the market, so we won't see a large drop in my view. At the same time, i dont think there is significant upside pop here for the next few weeks until they stick the machines in and start coining BTC