Member Info for JohnNth

Https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukrainian-billionaire-zhevago-fights-off-london-fraud-lawsuit/ar-BB1hu4yH?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=6b580d74b2ba48e68b2fa1901a68b844&ei=31

@RGP007...if that is the case, then I admit my mistake... APOLOGY.

I hope all works out for us all.

I think its only matter of time before Nesis is replaced; and he has to be replaced as he is no longer a major investor. Not taking anything away from Nesis cos he has done a fantastic job to date saving the company.

IMO it is the prospect of sanctions closing in on him and hence forever be labelled Putin's enabler which led to his decision to divest and only matter of time before he steps away completely. This will also be better for POLY as they will soon be led by someone who is not watching over their shoulder all the while in fear of sanctions.

Not sure how the sale of Russian assets is progressing, but I fear not too well. IMO there's no shortage of buyers but think Russia penalty may be too high a price to pay to do a deal. This means POLY could be in Russia for a long term until conflict ends during which there will be no divis but shareholder value will continue to accumulate since the business is highly profitable and will remain so in the near future.

In the meantime, sp on AIX falls for second day running whilst it remains steady on MOEX. It all makes for an interesting meeting tomorrow, and let's hope it works out best for all.

Fingers xd.........

Https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/dec/06/fbi-to-help-cypriot-police-investigate-sanction-busting-for-russian-oligarchs

Https://www.icij.org/investigations/cyprus-confidential/fbi-called-in-to-help-cyprus-investigate-russian-sanctions-dodging/

Just picked up news on sale of assets owned by Nesis to Maaden International Investment llc. I’m not sure what to make of this transaction at this stage of POLY reorganisation other than to assume Nesis may have been forced to offload holdings and thereby avoid being a victim to potential forthcoming sanctions on entities and individuals based in Cyprus.

Powerboom Investments Ltd (which holds shares in POLY) is registered in Cyprus and is a wholly owned subsidiary of ICT Holdings Ltd which is registered in Russia. Nesis is also a resident of Cyprus.

The authorities in Cyprus have recently said they will come down hard on anything Russian using the country to ‘evade’ sanctions and called in FBI to help.

FBI to help Cypriot police investigate sanction-busting for Russian oligarchs | Cyprus | The Guardian

I was of the opinion POLY was trying to exit Russia with reasonable value, so news of Nesis coming out with ‘value’ and us still invested in Russia is a bit of a shock. I think Nesis did say recently that his holdings were wholly listed on MOEX which is worth $1 more than sp on AIX; MOEX listing so far today is trading positively and so have taken the news in its stride.

POLY have not provided terms if any of the sale agreement, or value of the transaction but one can assume it is at least in line with valuation on MOEX which is about $5.60 per share.

I am unable to trace any info on Maaden International Investment llc based in Oman; however there is Ma’aden Mining company based in Saudi Arabia.

There will be a lot to clear up and answer for in the forthcoming POLY conference on the 31st. I am not registered with Telegram and hence it would be good to know any further information available.

@E.Penfold.......I’d say minimum divi of 60 cents per share in the short term, rising with expansion of capacity in both Kaz and West Asia countries thereafter.

IMO it is reasonable to assume a buoyant market for gold in short to medium term given falling interest rates and global geo-politics. The market could even explode if US/EU decide to confiscate Russian reserves held in the West to pay Ukraine, as this would accelerate move away from hard currencies and into gold.

I also think there would be a special divi should POLY secure sale of its Russian business which imo is worth at least $8bn in normal times; equating to approximately $15 per share. But times are not normal so we’ll have to see how that pans out.

One thing I’m absolutely convinced on is the massive current under valuation of the business; sp is trading at less than 25% its true value as compared to its piers operating in the normal world.

Note this is my opinion only...please DYOR

Fingers xd...........

@Moorscloud...POLY's objective on divis is stated in its annual reports which reads as follows:

"Our Dividend Policy is for a minimum 50% pay-out of underlying net earnings, paid each half year (subject to absolute Net debt/ previous 12-months’ Adjusted EBITDA ceiling of 2.5x).

Assuming POLY have managed to unwind inventory to normal levels at the year end, I’m expecting EBITDA of around $1.5bn and net profit to be around $1bn for 2023. Given normal times, this should trigger divis of around $500m at least on 2023 earnings, equating to approx $1 per share. So I’m in agreement POLY will yield good divis going forward once situation normalises. I am also holding shares for good divi yield, which have already more than doubled in sp since I bought them in 2022.

Further, forecasts for gold in short/medium terms are very good given falling interest rates over coming years, geo-politics and so on. As far as Russian operation is concerned, there is the added attraction immediately on capitalising on a favourable USD/Rub exchange rates and so any party interested in buying would want to get its hands on the company asap.

I think POLY is seriously looking to offload Russian assets which could be toxic for many years to come given its alliance with China and the geopolitics that entails. Also, the costs of producing gold in Russia is much higher than in Kaz or any other West Asian countries where POLY wants to expand. Currently Russia is highly profitable largely due to favourable exchange rates which will not be the case in the long term. At the same time, POLY have spent many years developing Russian assets which are high quality and so would not want to give it away either, and treat it as a cash cow in coming years in absence of a sale.

I think Nesis said back in October did say that POLY have been approached already by a number of buyers. I personally don’t think there is any shortage of buyers; be it Chinese or Russian. I think any sale agreement would be subject to a favourable settlement with Russian authorities which would mean negotiations. Companies pulling out so far have been from sanctioned countries and so POLY would present a unique situation requiring unique one off solution. The fact that POLY withdrew from UK to sell Russian business and have stated it would return to UK once having done so does not bode well IMO. I think POLY were pressured to say this at the time to calm nerves of shareholders and steady the price.

Russian authorities will interpret this not in a favourable manner and hence will impose a penalty which may well be unacceptable to POLY. In the coming update, I don’t think POLY will elaborate on this any more than to say negotiations are ongoing.

IMO a stumbling block will be the penalty imposed by Russian authorities and not finding of a buyer.

Note this is my opinion only….please DYOR

Fingers xd……..

Further, POLY would hope shareholders stay on board with the lure of rising sp over and above the market. This is nothing new as companies like AAPL, MSFT, AMZN etc didnt pay divis for years but delivered on sp growth.

@Moorscloud.....In the POLY Q3 report put out on 31.10.2023, Mr Nesis said the following:

"The dividend decisions for the company will depend on the progress with the sale of the

Russian business and until this sale is finalized and executed, I don't think it will be appropriate for the company to pay dividends. I remain hopeful that dividend distribution will be on the Board's agenda when we approve the report for 2023 and as such, dividend payment would be possible based on the results of the full year 2023. This represents a slippage compared with our previous expectations but again, both operational difficulties in terms of unwinding the inventory, and complications in terms of completing the sale of the Russian business are pushing back the dividend distribution into the future."

To me it is clear divis are 100% dependent on sale of Russian business as long as sanctions remain in place. Russia would not allow capital outflows to pay shareholders in the West, and company could not pay Russian shareholders from Russia profits and rest from Kaz as they have already declared Russian entity operates totally independent from rest of POLY and this has helped keep sanctions both on POLY and its senior management at bay.

POLY is hoping sale can be concluded with minimum penalty, but somehow I have my doubts. I also think POLY will remain put in Russia if it cannot get a 'fair' price; and why should they give the business away? POLY is currently not sanctioned and company can sell all the gold it produces in Russia at market prices, so no harm continuing with extremely profitable trading and let the cash pile up. Anyway, in the current favourable trading environment it would take POLY Russia about 20 months of trading to repay approx $2bn in loans it has in Russia so cash can be applied productively and shareholder value increased in the current environment of high interest rate.

Absence of divis will not suit some shareholders, but higher group profits and falling debt should have positive impact on the sp regardless. We will know more in update to be provided on 31st January, which I expect to very positive on 'trading' and cash flow, and see sp moving north of $5 within days of an update.

Fingers xd........

Z lays out his terms of peace in Davos:

"To resume negotiations, Russia must completely withdraw from the territory of Ukraine, change its political elite, acknowledge war crimes and extradite the organizers of the war to the tribunal".

Despite what's gone on in the past 2 years, he still hasn't lost his sense of humour...has he?

Evanescent...famous for shooting from the hips; devoid of any substance as ever.

Russia took back Crimea which Krushchev had combined with Ukraine in the 1950's when all part of Soviet Union. Russia did not give Crimea to Ukraine so that they can then go and become part of Russian adversary NATO. Also note Ukraine did not pay anything for Crimea to Russia and so Russia cancelled agreement as there was no quid pro quo on teh part of Ukraine.

As regards Donbas, Russia had invaded the region but did help ethnic Russians to resist right wing elements which were making their lives unbearable and hence the autonomy within Ukraine. Once this part of agreement is implemented, Russia had no objections to Ukraine joining EU.

Think you should read up before making any further comments.

Paying divis during crisis where two thirds of its business is taken away is a fantastic news. FXPO is there operating right in the front line and is itself getting battle hardened in the process. It also indicates the company may have established new routes in recent weeks to get the ore out to the ports, but this was too late to reflect in the final Qtr production update.

This company will most definitely survive this war and be a BIG winner again; which I have never doubted for one moment.

"previous comments blaming Zelensky for an invasion that started before he was even elected and problems significantly pre-dating him is absurd"

This is correct if looked upon in isolation of what Z did and proposed to do in future. basically, Z fought the election for President undermining Minsk agreement between Ukraine and Russia and supported by EU and many other countries eg. without granting autonomy/devolution (within Ukraine) to Russian speaking Donbas region as , Z wanted Ukraine to join NATO and hence bringing NATO to Russia border. Z commenced process of cancelling everything Russia eg language from the country including within Russian speaking areas running contrary to Minsk. Z instead of reigning down on right wing elements within Ukraine as required under Minsk, embraced and empowered them etc etc.

Previous leadership under Poroshenko could have done all this but being an experienced politician he exercised caution with best interests of Ukraine in mind. Z on the other hand tried to be funny with Russia and innocent Ukrainians paid the price.

WARNING: Be careful before electing a comedian to run your country!

"Zelensky’s peace plan.........................essentially requires Russian surrender and reparations"

Despite getting millions killed/displaced, Z has not lost his sense of humour has he? Yesterdays result from US where Trump won a land slide in IOWA will not have gone down well with Z who is fixated in recovering lost territory due to his own incompetence. History will not be very kind to him.

I don't want to make any predictions as have been wrong before. But in recent days, not a day goes past without the word peace coming out of Ukraine. Me thinks reality may finally be sinking in brought on by various factors; lack of progress on front line, funding from West drying up, may be new President in US comes end of year etc.

Ukraine and Zelensky dismissed China when it tried brokering agreement in early 2023, but now wants them involved as they have access and influence in the Kremlin.

We wait in anticipation in the meantime.

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/ukraine-seeks-chinese-involvement-in-peace-summit/ar-AA1n0V73?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=3bbe5facd2cd4b47aa002570d714eed2&ei=50

"Total iron ore pellet production was.........................................54% lower than 3Q due to logistic constraints and lower market demand in the early part of the quarter."

In normal times, FXPO would not have any problem selling the ore, but conflict restricts selling ore to EU based customers only where demand fluctuates. This will be an ongoing problem until seaborne trade reopens, and this can only happen when the conflict ends.

On the flipside, company remains cash flow positive and has no debts, so will survive the war to prosper once again.

Think seaborne exports depends almost entirely on barges able to carry ore down the Dnipro river which is fortified on either side by the warring parties and hence a no go area. Yes there is a possibility exports may have increased a bit through ports around Odessa but not by a great deal.

I very much hope I'm wrong.

Yes I think we could be in for a long haul, and all whilst company is making record profits and will continue making huge profits given outlook for gold and favourable exchange rates.

Somehow, I don't think it's sufficient for a company to delist from London and domiciling to Kaz to circumvent sanctions, is enough to escape Russian wrath on departing companies. Penalty will have to be paid, and me thinks it may be a too heavy a price to pay, which will leave POLY with no option but to stay put till the conflict ends.

In the meantime, issue I have is that Kaz listing and fiduciary requirements are not as stringent as those applicable in the UK and so we are at the mercy of the company management and the board. But so far so good.

Fingers xd.........